This. My PE buddy said exactly that. Stimmy is less likely but so are major tax hikes so the market likes it.
It just seems odd to me that the market thinks a Mitch Mcconnell obstructionist Senate is going to do what’s best for America. He is going to do everything that he can to make sure we have a slow painful recovery. That is the playback to defend the Senate and reclaim upper mid west governorships.
I keep hearing the term gridlock like it’s 1996 and we are talking about Newt and Bill. Back when the internet was this new shiny toy, the federal debt was 20% of gdp oil was 10$ a barrel and the boomers were in their peak earning years.
2 Likes
What would a speedy recovery consist of that’s advantageous for the market? - perhaps COVID related or any other element.
Government policies that promote growth.
*Infrastructure funding
*Rental assistance to people who are unemployed who can not pay the rent.
*Massive pay outs to states to fill their budgets so they will not have to lay off workers
*Legislation to allow people who have deferred mortgages to refinance without paying the overdue balance upfront.
There is a long list of legislative needs and we will not get most of them. Were you not paying attention from 2010-16. What pro growth policies did the Republican house pass then. Why would things be different now?
Do you think the market is fairly valued? Undervalued? How much higher should it go before we reach fair value?
Other then not raising taxes how mill Mitch help the US recover from the economic shock of Covid?
That’s a good list of policies that would help the middle class and the poor. I would disagree that it would be a driver for the stock market - especially the top dozen companies that make up around 1/3 of the s&p. All those companies are doing quite well during covid.
Unfettered Capitalism.
It’s kind of a dumb term, but letting companies run free and do what the fuck they want has its merits. But yes, not raising taxes like you said is also a biggie, imo.
I don’t think the regulatory framework in the US is going to look all that different then it has over the last 4 years, One exception to that might be the court ordered repeal of Obamacare. However lets note that markets are up several hundred percent with Obama care as the law the land and unemployment reached a 50 year low so maybe its not really the drag on business that some would like us to believe.
High quality companies will provide good health ins to their employees either way. And the overall net effect of a large percentage of the population can have negative effects on business so i think there is some give and take there.
There are pockets in the S&P that are doing well as of now, but lets be careful what we attribute that to. Is it covid or the 3 trillion dollar stimulus that accompanied it?
Time will tell. Stimulus money will be much harder to come by in the future so we will get our answer over the next two years.
1 Like
The algorithm is predicting a (short-term) reversal in S&P futures. I know Biden been stonkin’ it up but maybe we’re in for a not-stonks night.
US official unemployment rate now below Australia’s. Stocks surging into open. It never ends! Optimism optimism optimism.
This weekend I/wife dumped 12k into 2020 IRA and I bumped my 401k to 50% to try to get to 19k by end of year but didn’t do the math, meh. Biden economy or something, amirite?
Damn those commie MS13 loving monsters gonna destroy muh portfolio
Holy hell market is ROCKETING 
legit vaccine news (although IMHO the market should have been aware this news was coming for weeks)
Lol Trump. Market up 5% because he lost. Amazing.
2 Likes
/NQ fading hard. Vaccine is… bearish for tech?
Meanwhile, /RTY limit up
Maybe cyclical rotation but it’s a bit sketchy because most of the world is completely megafucked by covid and vaccine won’t come soon enough
Run the country like a business herp derp.
1 Like
I subtly lose my shit every time anyone calls Trump a business man. The guy has never run anything anywhere but directly into the ground.
1 Like
Yeah it’s kind of like calling everybody who plays poker a professional gambler.
1 Like
That’s actually perfect, particularly for this website. Trump is a massive fish both in terms of his size when he started and his skills which are absolutely nonexistent.
Just the fact that he says yes to everything is a perfect encapsulation of why he’s terrible. Saying no to almost everything is one of the few things that every single successful business operator has in common. It’s literally the VPIP/PFR of the business community and it’s mathematically correct to be way way way tighter in business since if you’re profitable in the now there are no blinds.