Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

APPL up $6 in the last 20m, lol

Did I miss some news in the last hour? I would’ve thought going into the weekend was the least likely time for a surge of buying.

I heard something on another forum about a fed announcement that they may have to buy other assets. Can’t find anything though.

I’ve had an offer pulled after I countered. They countered below their advertised range, I countered into the middle of the advertised range, they got offended and pulled the offer. Sports broadcasting for the loss.

I’ve never met anyone else who this has ever happened to, and I can confirm that the company in question is not one I would have wanted to work for in hindsight. So it worked out fine.

Job #2 sounds better to me. More money, shorter commute, better benefits, better cultural area for you and your family, possibility of more time with the family… I mean, you’re losing like an hour a day of commuting? You’re talking like 250 hours a year that frees up. I wouldn’t want to make a senior in high school change schools, but you’ve got a contingency for that and IMO changing in 7th grade is a decent time to change if you have to.

Counter for more 100% of the time. I’ve gotten more money in a case where they told me there was a hard cap on the max they could pay me. It’s all bullshit and they can always pay you more. If it’s a large company and their budget and pay structure is already set, ask for a signing bonus. Nobody wants to walk away from a good candidate and restart the hiring process because of like $10k or something. It’s literally more expensive to do that.

This probably depends a lot on the industry and your specific job market though

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Yeah you’re taking a risk by moving (if it’s #2, which it should be) and changing jobs and you should be compensated for that. In my experience that’s always a good line to use to bring about the counter. GL

STONKS

Thanks all. Thats the way we are leaning as well. Checking places out there this weekend.

I don’t really understand the whole negative interest rate thing. Why would anyone have money in something with a negative rate? Why wouldn’t they just have it as cash in a safety deposit box?

I don’t think you can have a safe deposit box in your 401k. But like you I also do not understand the concept of negative bonds. And for something seemingly so simple, I just have never understood bonds.

My understanding is that banks can only have a certain amount of excess cash on hand. The hope is if rates are low they’ll lend more instead of holding onto it which will stimulate economy, especially if rates are negative.

Certain institutions also have to hold a certain amount in bonds - pensions, insurance companies etc. They don’t have a choice.

Also money market funds can only hold short duration debt due to a need for liquidity.

If why would someone buy a negative bond?

Suppose you’re a company like Berkshire Hathaway with about 100 billion in cash. You absolutely cannot put that cash at risk so you need to store it somewhere. And that storage costs money. It’s just usually the case that the premium earned on the cash exceeds the storage cost so the net return is still positive.

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There are subtleties at play that might make negative yielding bonds desirable, but they are non obvious to people that don’t specialize in bond math. One is that if a bond yields -1% when you buy it but then market yields drop further to -2%, then you would accrue a capital gain. So you might buy negative yielding bonds if you think bonds will go more negative in the future. Another subtlety is that if rates are negative but upward sloping (one year yields are -1% but two year yields are -2%) I think you can also make money by holding the bond for one year and selling it. Its referred to as rolling down the yield curve and only depends on the yield curve sloping upward with term, and works even if some spot yields are negative.

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This is all too advanced for me.

What happens if one just maintains their porfolio with X% of vanguard total bond at all times. What happens then?

The bond fund will go up and down in value inversely proportional to interest rates. The longer the term of the bonds in the fund, the more the value will go up or down with interest rate changes. A twenty year bond will rise in value much more sharply than a two year bond with the same decrease in interest rates.

An ETF is constantly buying and selling individual bonds that are throwing off interest and accruing capital gains and losses as interest rates change so there is no perfect clarity in how that will flow through to investors. Having said that if you buy a bond ETF today with a yield of X percent, then you might reasonably expect a return of about X percent going forward. The strategies I described above are active management strategies so you wouldn’t usually see them employed by an ETF manager

So basically it will do the same thing that it always does?

One thing I’ve never understood is why it is better to buy bond funds as opposed to a diversified basket of individual bonds (assuming a large enough portfolio to make this feasible). You don’t have to pay a manager and as long as you hold to maturity your absolute returns are locked in.

It’s exactly the same. The only difference is that the bond fund constantly calculates the value of all their holdings if sold and shows you that number.