Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

I just saw a commercial for QQQ air during the first half hour of Good Morning America.

Seems like the 21st century equivalent of getting stock tips from your shoeshine boy.

Tesla up another $35,000,000,000 in market cap today alone and 3 Hondas worth of market cap in total (about $130,000,000,000) since they declared their 5 for 1 stock split.

Makes absolutely zero sense.

Am I crazy for thinking that while tech darlings are soaring to new highs, oil companies represent good value with ~50% more upside until they hit their highs from Jan/Feb? I mean what are the odds they don’t retest those highs some time in the next say 3 years?

But Joe Biden is going to pass the Green New Deal in his first hundred days, completely transforming our energy economy!

Oh yeah, I forgot about the socialist renewable energy dystopia that could be only months away.

TSLA up 33% since the split announcement

nothing else has changed at all

STONKS

I really don’t agree–he’s an old school guy in a new school world. The old rules don’t mean anything anymore.

I’m pretty skeptical the rules have changed all that much. I mean eventually the piper comes looking to get paid.

People are always saying this right before the bottom falls out again.

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I don’t think the rules have changed, I just don’t think he’s able to beat index funds picking stocks anymore. It could be because his roll is too big, markets are more efficient, he’s 90, or a combination of those things.

Or that any stock which makes it into an index fund is blindly pumped by a zombie retail investing horde?

I’m honestly asking on this. As the rise of people putting their money in index funds and forgetting it is a brand new thing and I’m curious if there are weird consequences.

I guess when the big crash comes Buffet will crash less hard? Like how Santa Monica real estate crashes a lot less hard than San Bernardino real estate.

I’ve been reading about these same concerns for over 20 years.

Only 14% of the market is owned by index funds.

The markets went down 35% and completely recovered within the last 6 months.

Which isn’t normal and now some stocks (which index funds will hold throughout) are in a frothy bubble. Being out of those stocks when they hit stupid levels might outperform the index funds I guess.

And I think Buffet just missed this one and never got his money in because everything still looked expensive or he thought it would crash more. And honestly I can’t say I disagree. So maybe he’s past his prime or maybe the market threw a really weird curveball here. But I’ll reserve judgement for another couple of years.

Buffet could be playing a bunch of 70/30s correctly during covid and still be losing.

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On one hand you have a lot of index driving stocks at very insane valuations. On the other hand there are a lot of companies which comprise very small portions of the indexes at reasonable valuations. Very weird market.

Yeah it’s very strange.

And we’ve recently inherited a significant (to me) sum of mostly cash which I would normally just invest at our chosen AA. Yet I have no fucking clue what to do with it. Equities, bonds, and cash all look like shit to me.

FXE FTMFW baby!

*Note I am not an investment professional. All advice is strictly my own and for entertainment purposes only yadda yadda.

Too late for that, I think.

(You can thank me later now that your investment is sure to triple from here.)