Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

[suzzers_ghost]

Regarding hedging against calamity, I feel pretty good about where I’m positioned right now - 1/4 in Exxon, 1/2 in FXE (Euros vs dollar 1x) and the rest in some international funds and a couple stonks I can’t sell w/o incurring short-term cap gains tax.

I’m up 20% since my previous peak in Feb and 45% from my low point in March/April. If we crash I’ve still got most of my gains locked in. And if the dollar crashes I’ve got Euros. But if we recover I should get some gains out of Exxon and the others.

I don’t feel comfortable being more stonk-exposed at least until we see how back to school plays out. Then the election is going to be a total shitshow.

I feel like it can’t be a bad long term strategy to at least just pick individual stonks or sectors (energy) that haven’t gotten into the recovery party yet. If your index fund has a ton of AMZN/MSFT/AAPL and now TSLA - that seems like a recipe for underperforming.

I think I need to at least diversify into BP though. Exxon seems to be lagging.

[bobman0330]

My faith in EMH is a little bit shaken on this one, I will admit. Is it just impossible to borrow TSLA shares to short?

[WichitaDM]

I am not sure on that. The IV is insane for options so that is not really an option.

[suzzers_ghost]

Did you try focusing only on crazy bubble/black swan times - like now, or 1999? That’s the only time I’ve ever felt like I had a read (meaning 60/40 at best) on the market. Otherwise I’m just diversify and buy and hold.

[d10]

Sounds like Honda needs to issue more stock splits.

[DrChesspain]

@boredsocial

So much of this current bubble is just the result of the huge inefficiencies inherent in giving the ownership class too big a share of the national income. They are literally generating so much cash that a real shortage of investable opportunities is causing a huge pricing bubble in the stuff they actually can justify investing in.

People like me on the bubble of the ownership class are pretty much frozen out too. I have cash, but I need that cash safe because it’s worth a lot more to me than additional cash would be.

You’re not really “frozen out” from good investments when a seemingly significant percentage of your money needs to remain in something super safe.

Or did you just mean that you don’t have enough expendable money to take advantage of the stock market?

[Formula72]

For what it’s worth, I just shorted SPY a few mins ago and I feel that shorting is almost always a bad idea.

Someone came up with adage that the market reflects itself in 6 months which leads to the reason why the market can often appear paradoxical and rarely moves in a way that makes any sense.

I mean, stocks could continue onward to the moon or they don’t. That’s my thesis - along with some other shit.

[MrWookie]

We got a shoutout over in the Dale/Rupar thread, bois.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1293669083267956743

[anon38180840]

@WichitaDM

Someone please talk me off the ledge of unloading on SPY puts.

Move more to cash, foreign markets, gold, etc. Dems could cave any minute and then it’ll be S&P GO BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

Or Dems could not cave and the Trump EO could look like it works for a few months and STOCK MARKET GO BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

But seriously? Here’s the reason…

I haven’t been looking at pricing recently on puts, but when I was there was also a disconnect IMO. I think the prices on puts were a lot sharper than the values of stocks, so there seemed to be a pretty big difference. Like they were pricing in a pretty big chance of everything I looked at dropping by 10-20%. The bubble is largely created by retail investors making stupid buying decisions. But they’re not buying/selling puts. The market for puts is based on the people buying/selling them, so it’s a lot less disconnected.

That leaves shorting stuff, and you can’t do it in an IRA and obviously you have a high risk of losing on the trade and having to give up your position if the markets keep going up for a couple more months.

[anon38180840]

@WichitaDM

Yes I am long in retirement accounts and always have been. I kind of subscribe to the Riverman school of thought on that and never mess with it. This would purely be for STONKS gambling purposes only.

I’m not sure if anyone told you, but they’re basically always giving away free money on PredictIt for all your gambling needs.

I lost 100% of all my puts, don’t necessarily regret the decision because the payoffs were huge if I hit, the amount risked was low. But like, who the fuck knew that it was a goddamn great time to own strip clubs in fucking Houston last month? Amazing! I nailed my projections on cases/hospitalizations/etc, picked a business that had to get totally fucked, which had a quarterly report before the expiration date which would include about half the time under shutdowns and severe outbreaks.

What I guess I failed to account for is that to a lot of men, ass and tits are literally to die for. Or they cooked the books on the report, which wouldn’t surprise me. There’s a line in the Big Short about how much fraud there is in bubbles, and how it’s a big leading indicator.

So if you’re buying puts you’re not only betting on the timing, you’re betting on corporations being honest about the situation in their quarterlies, not cooking the books, etc… and on investors to be in touch with reality in time before your puts expire.

@WichitaDM

If those things don’t cause the market to at least take a pause what will?

I have to imagine there are a lot of REITs about to be completely and utterly fucked. Like Bear Stearns plunging to zero fucked. My friend who works in a legal field talked to a lawyer in Atlantic County, NJ today. Population is about 250K. They said there are currently 4,000 evictions on the docket and another 1,000 in the process of being filed. The average household there is 2.59, and I’m guessing it gets higher at lower income levels. But at 2.59 it’s 12,950 people currently being evicted out of 263,670.

4.9% of the county is being evicted AS WE SPEAK.

What’s it going to be after 9/1 with no CARES extension? 10%? 15%?

I expect commercial real estate to be even worse, and I expect pockets of the country to be worse. I did a lot of digging on REITs a month or two ago, like I’m talking figuring out how many units they had in different regions for residential, how many of the commercial ones had regional diversity and/or diverse types of commercial tenants. How many had grocery-anchored shopping centers versus otherwise.

There were commercial REITs that intentionally avoided grocery and staple anchored shopping centers to focus almost entirely on like restaurants, bars and entertainment (think Dave and Busters type places).

There are residential ones that purposely did not diversify geographically, or did so with AZ, TX, and FL. GJGE guys.

I think some of them are at incredibly high risk of going to zero. I don’t know what their market cap is, how many are in the indexes, etc, but it’s going to have a pretty big impact… and that’s before we start unwinding all the mortgage backed securities and default swaps and all that shit.

@feedthabeast

Maybe look at VIX options if you want to gamble on it? Up or down we don’t know but volatility seems likely.

Don’t ask me the specifics of how to explain it, but the VIX is more a measure of negative volatility than general volatility I think. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

[WichitaDM]

New jobless claims “only” 963,000 this week 3.5 months after OPEN FOR BUSINESS. That would still be by far the worst new jobless numbers ever pre-covid.

BULLISH! STONKS! WORKING HARD, THANK YOU!

[monetary_expert]

TSLA up another 4% pre-market, now up 22% since they announced the split.

Holding AMZN is not a bad idea if you think they will be the next to announce a split.

[nonfiction]

WSB was ALL IN on PRPL earnings and they just missed 2x. It hit 26.xx earlier and now down to 21 AH, you hate to see it

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i91ots/prpl_roll_call_my_positions_baby_ride_or_die_4m/

[boredsocial]

Warren Buffett is dumping banks and bought a small (for him) stake in a gold miner.

thisisfine.jpg

[Riverman]

Buffett hasn’t beaten the S&P 500 for like 25 years. Dude is clicking buttons just like everyone else.

(This is not true for his acquisitions of entire private companies).

[boredsocial]

People said the exact same thing about him in 1999 and 2007. At the top of every economic cycle he looks bad vs the S&P. Then he gets it back and then some. He’s the best living value investor, but the last decade has not been friendly to value investors… and that’s on fiscal policy.

He’s also trying to beat the S&P at incomprehensible size with a strategy that loses a lot of possible return every time it has to allocate more money.

[suzzers_ghost]

Dude bought Amazon at 1600 or w/e. That wasn’t a bad call.

[Melkerson]

@Riverman

Buffett hasn’t beaten the S&P 500 for like 25 years. Dude is clicking buttons just like everyone else.

(This is not true for his acquisitions of entire private companies).

The problem is that his roll is too big.

With your bankroll he would destroy any index annually.

[mukdukaluk]

3600 year end target. Noice.

Goldman Sachs just lifted its S&P 500 price target. Here’s why

[boredsocial]

@Melkerson

@Riverman

Buffett hasn’t beaten the S&P 500 for like 25 years. Dude is clicking buttons just like everyone else.

(This is not true for his acquisitions of entire private companies).

The problem is that his roll is too big.

With your bankroll he would do 50+% a year.

FYP. Really hard to overstate how good at investing Buffett is. When he ‘underperforms’ it’s almost always in comparison to people who are taking vastly more risk than he is.