I am so looking forward to the 10-part “what the fuck were people doing investing in a company that never made money and was run by an obvious lunatic” documentary.
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Unemployment down to 11.1%. Seems legit.
Unemployment going down may actually be bad for the market in the short term. It will make it harder to pass the next stimulus bill.
S&P +1.2% pre-market. We’re going to catch a nice little holiday weekend rally today. I’ll probably add to my collection of puts that I’m going to lose on lol…
Seriously how the fuck does DIS keep going up? Like they’re actually going to re-open in 9 days? The only thing going up faster than their stock is the COVID-19 case numbers in Orlando.
No, actually the case numbers are going up way faster.
One of the most persistent and destructive myths these days is that the people controlling capital have these great insights that lead to allocating resources efficiently. Like half of the finance world is made up of stupid Jared types who had their dads buy their way into Harvard and the had their drinking buddies from college find them a job where you wear a suit.
Even most of the historical capitalist success stories about Great Business Men involve them stealing someone else’s idea or committing outright fraud.
Disney reopening would be insane. And I would imagine that announcement needs to be made fairly soon if it is going to happen as you can’t wait for people to have flown into town to go. It seems like the announcement probably needs to happen in the next couple of days or it isn’t happening.
I’m loading up on puts today too. I suck at STONKS though so it probably rockets up to all time S&P 500 highs by next week.
My theory is that the reopening will be cancelled on Monday, if it’s happening. My theory is that DeSantis would not want an announcement made before the holiday weekend so that all the towns still open don’t take a hit from Disney basically declaring Florida unsafe for tourism, and of course he’s capable of applying some pressure. Thankfully, I sold my 7/2 puts at a profit and bought 7/10 puts, plus I’m holding 7/17 puts. I’ve got Draft King 7/31 puts, and one other one for 8/21 that’s (mostly) unrelated to Florida.
I will be shopping for companies in trouble, and for ones who I liked early in the week but who had already lost too much value. If they gained enough back, I’ll take a shot.
By the way, what are the odds the job numbers are fudged or fraudulent? Like even if that came out tonight at 9pm, it’d barely matter by Monday. (Today’s the last day of trading this week, for those who are unaware.)
Sounds like they delivered a bunch of cars and no other car manufacturer is anywhere close to producing a similar number of electric cars that people want to buy.
In a fantasy world where they could make $10,000 profit per car they only need to produce 20 million cars to be worth 200b. At 90,000 a quarter that would take 55 years.
And $10,000 a car is impossible. They aren’t even making $1,000 per car.
These are not regular cars. These babies work all night and make money while the owner sleeps.
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I suspect those who are valuing Tesla’s stock at $1,200 a share are expecting Tesla’s sales to grow like 50% year over year for the next ten years. If that happens then that sort of valuation might be justified. Very obviously they don’t expect Tesla to make 400k cars a year for the foreseeable future.
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There is absolutely no rational basis for a $200b market cap. It is pure cult-driven insanity.
I agree with this, but it’s still not a stock I’d ever short. I’m pretty sure it’s valuation is going to collapse eventually, but fuck betting on when.
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Haven’t they been in existence for like a decade now? What makes you think they are going to suddenly be able to profitably mass produce cars at some point?
Exactly this. If you timed it right you would make a fortune on short dated puts. Unfortunately you might be buying them and seeing them expire worthless for years.
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I have no idea if they will or not. I’m not a Tesla bull or a serious analyst of Tesla stock or anything. I’m rooting for them to succeed because if they win then electric cars win and I want electric cars to be a thing. If Tesla goes down in flames that’ll delay electrification significantly. And then I’m also rooting for Tesla because idiots like that tooth sayer guy have been saying Tesla is doomed and going to zero since the stock hit 200 for the first time. It’s just funny when a whole community develops with a strong belief like TSLAQ and then the real world just shits all over them. It’s like watching a years-long personification of the wide world of sports agony of defeat clips.
I mean I agree TSLA’s stock price seems too high. But it seemed high yesterday too. And it’s going up today because a 5% year over year decrease in car deliveries is very good considering the covid nightmare that spring was, and that’s news today.
Most of the upper layers of the government seem to have had ‘loyalists’ installed so uh, pretty fucking high those numbers are fudged.
Probably not straight made up. Just make up a new UE metric that fits the conclusion. Not like anyone asks if it’s U-6 or U-1 or U-3 or U-278.
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No no no, you see, it’s a whole new paradigm!
Maybe they come with built-in Alexas that harvest data from the owners, send it back to Elon Musk and TSLA then sells the info to make billions.
Probably not, though, since Elon and Bezos supposedly loathe each other.
This. I think this one boils down to millennials loving electric cars and thinking Tesla’s cars look cool, and then the FOMO thing as it surges over and over again.