I’m learning as I go, but I’m up 19% even after the past 2 days. I dumped a couple of stocks yesterday that I didn’t love long term like AAL, and bought more NKLA on the dip.
IE - Chiefsplanet
We seem to have two pretty clear sets of states. Their may be some in the middle, but there is a pretty big set of mostly blue states in which the governors are doing their best to take as many precautions as they can, given the politics on the ground. Then there’s a pretty big state of mostly red states in which the governors are super duper excited about OFB.
I’m concerned that interstate travel is going to fuck over the states doing their best to do the right thing, but if it doesn’t or if they can mitigate it through extensive testing at airports, the effects on the economy will be very interesting. I mean the Bay Area is doing well, NYC and the metro area and most of New England are doing well. Illinois seems to be doing ok right now. If you assume the mask usage continues to go up in those states as more and more studies show the effectiveness, they may hang in there and keep R < 1 with masks, safety precautions, and like a 70-80% open economy.
That’s a pretty big chunk of the economy. On the other hand, TX, FL, GA, AZ, etc are probably going to be pretty fucked. BUT, big companies with offices in multiple states may less impacted than we think, because they can let people in those states WFH and shift stuff around. They can close manufacturing in states where they have to and expand it elsewhere.
It’s the small businesses that are going to get really, really fucked. The hospitality and travel sectors will get fucked again, too. BUT it’s really important to keep in mind that this may be contained to 15-20% of the economy, and 20% of GDP is roughly $4.2 trillion. We’ve already done about $2.5T of stimulus, and the Dems want to do another $3T now - the GOP wants to do another $1T. So if they meet in the middle, the stimulus should mostly cover the decline.
The key then is taking care of the unemployed people, as a $1200 or $2000 check is too little too late for them if the CARES Act is not extended, and their economic activity going to 0 is going to have a pretty bad effect on the overall economy.
And of course, remember that this administration and this Congress will not let many (any) major companies go to zero.
My fucking around on options portfolio is up 184% today lol. Almost even.
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SKNOTS?
What’s the origin of that? I have no clue, and it’s so pervasive here I may be the only one not in on the joke lol…
Stonks.
STONKS completely tanking prior to the election is probably our best chance for a huge landslide win for the Dems. Hard not to root for it.
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I’m not retiring anytime soon. Let em drop! STONKS
I wonder what percentage of people’s extra UI benefit or stimulus money just got destroyed today. Looking at wallstreetbets and Robinhood stats it has to be a lot.
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I guess it’s always a good time to replay the classics
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How is today the day that everyone finally realized “oh shit, this thing isn’t over?” and not any specific day for the last several weeks? Or is it just another case of lol stonkaments?
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If we survive this as a country, 2020 is going down as the most FUBAR year of Millennials’ lives.
We certainly hope so, but honestly that’s nowhere near certain in this timeline.
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Brokers were all out looting last week.
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Maybe they did, maybe not. It’s possible that it was more like, “Holy shit we’re almost back to ATH??? We got way too excited.”
Unless we start drilling 5-7% a day for a few days, this was not “oh shit this isn’t over.”
Like, would anyone be surprised if everything went +3% tomorrow for no fucking reason?
Goddddddd I hope so. And are you claiming there is a more fucked up year on record for Boomers already? I didn’t live through the 60’s obviously, but I feel like this year exceeds any year in the 1960s by a lot.
I feel like this is the most fucked up year Americans have lived through since WWII, and even then I’m probably only counting the people who fought in the war or lost someone who fought in the war.
For something everyone experienced, I don’t think you can even compare anything until you get back to the Great Depression, and the Great Depression wins… Or loses, depending on how you want to put it. I’d rather live through this, so far, than that. Mainly because of stuff like air conditioning, HDTV and Netflix.
I wonder if there’s any chance the masters of the universe have decided that while congress is debating the next stimulus is a good time to crash the market.
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