It might be this. It would make perfect sense really. The easiest way to get rich is to grift from government handouts.
It might also be that all of the morons piled in to stocks that were overpriced to begin with and at the first sign of any trouble shit the bed and panicked. The amount of posts per minute over at wallstreetbets moaning about how they are financially ruined is insane. The vast majority of the pump was retail, retail was always going to get wrecked. And this is after a 40% runup taking a 6% dump. LOL.
ETA-the other thing is that wave 2 is not remotely priced into the markets. The last week or so of data make wave 2 look very likely. Imagine what the market does if Texas or Florida or California has to go full shutdown again? It also is ominous for the states that shutdown longer and had a better result. They will likely see an upswing again also eventually after reopening. What we are seeing is OPEN FOR BUSINESS does not work. The market will have to digest that at some point. That or it might ignore that. Who knows. STONKS.
Not to nit you too bad but 1968 had just less than 17,000 dead from the Vietnam War. So a bit less than 500 a week. Meanwhile Covid is killing that annual figure every 2-3 weeks right now.
MLK and RFK assassinated, major racial inequality protests like this year.
Gold medal winners thrown off the Us Olympic team for making black power sign
The Tet offensive in Vietnam, the turning point in American perception that the war was winnable and arguably the turning point in a universal belief in American exceptionalism
LBJ, who won one of the biggest landslides of all time in 1964, deciding not to run for re-election after almost losing some early primaries to anti war candidates
Nixon winning the presidency on essentially a racist anti protest majority despite George Wallace running as a 3rd party candidate and getting 13.5 % of th vote and 5 states.
I exchanged $10k of a treasury fund for total US market index at the close today. Will continue to do so if it keeps falling, this time at smaller chunks but more frequent intervals than the last ride down.
During Tet and other times there was that many, the deaths weren’t equally distributed throughout the year. But there was a period of months where you saw that level of casualties.
No doubt. But something like 20% of the hospitalizations from Covid are 18-44(some with likely long term or permanent damage) and 25,000 people have already died who are 64 or younger roughly. Obviously it is killing mostly senior citizens though and I see your point.
Very unlikely unless it gets really bad. Which it might. Who really knows at this point. As suzzer has said if you tip your hospitals over you will need to do something
Unless you’re paying fees or something, you might as well do a bunch of smaller chunks that would give you the same cost average but reduce your variance. Last time I did every additional -3% from ATH on the way down starting at -20% (so -20%, 23%, 26%, etc) and I regret not spreading it in even smaller chunks.
I think tipping them over is a more fluid concept to Republican leaders than we think it is. I have a feeling personal choice is going to dictate this more than government policy in the red states, which means that the market reaction might be tougher to predict.
I’m going to formulate a plan tonight/tomorrow, but my current thought process is that it’s much easier to predict when they hit their default hospital capacity, or when things get first wave in NYC level ugly, but it’s very difficult to predict policy responses and personal choice responses, which will influence the market response.
Like I could easily see no shutdowns → market rally → 2-4 weeks later the market realizes “oh shit, people are locking down on their own.”
The other thing that isn’t being priced in (in my worthless opinion) is the economy today even OPEN FOR BUSINESS isn’t what it was 6 months ago. You don’t just spike up to 20% unemployment and -40% GDP growth and go back to normal immediately. Even if there are no more shutdowns there will be widespread damage that will take time to resolve. Likely some of the jobs are permanently lost as are some of the businesses that they came from.
The market before today was basically priced as if that wasn’t the case. Yes i realize there was massive stimulus and interest rates are low. That was true in 2001 and 2008 also(maybe not to this extent) and it took years and years to dig out of those holes.
That being said I am terrible at STONKS so my opinion is probably worth less than nothing.
Somehow I was smart enough to figure it out and dumb enough to still do 3% intervals instead of .5% or 1%.
Just like I was smart enough to plan for the crash to buy the dip, but not smart enough to buy a short ETF, buy puts on travel stocks, or buy ZM or CTXS before they started going up. I still am up ~100% on ZM but it could be like 150%… Or even more if I thought to buy calls.
One thing this time is I don’t think there’s much more to bet on to go up, I mean, ZM is up 223% YTD, with continued work from home priced in. Kroger is near its peak from the first runup it had when everything else crashed.
I guess it’s all gotta be puts and short ETFs? (Or just being defensive in general. I think my plan will be phased, there will be a point where I start selling, to reduce exposure, and a point where I then start buying puts or short ETFs to bet on the crash.)
This all assumes that the floor doesn’t just drop out tomorrow and Monday.