Yeah like those people that bought the $100k bunkers or w/e. You really think you’re getting in while their family members, or someone with more to barter, dies?
The new world order will be a triumvarate of heavily street gangs, national guard units and regular military units. The hillbilly militias may hold a few remote mountain forts.
Once it’s clear there’s no going back - rich old feeble people will be done for.
Lol at spiking the football over a 23k DJIA. If someone would’ve told you last week that we would close at 23k today you would’ve snap sold everything. Or maybe not, gotta stick to your plan after all.
I literally put in a sell order of all my GDX last night and didn’t even know that it went down hard today until I saw this post, hope it went through in time.
Still don’t get how the DOW went up 30% in 2019. Dow has and will never make any sense at all.
There have always been experts who know where the market is headed and there always will be. Sometimes they will even be right.
Bonus LOL: One of these authors became the Chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors because, well, why the hell not?
(Edit) In case you were wondering:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,273.00 on the day of the book’s publication on October 1, 1999, peaked at 11,722.98 105 days later, then declined 37.8% through October 9, 2002.
This book has literally been my target amount to scale back my portfolio out of 100% equities for years - Dow 36k. It just felt like about when the music would finally stop and there wouldn’t be enough chairs to sit in. No I cannot justify that with any science obviously.
Also because Dow 36k would get my net worth to really close that I could sort of coast until with my ultra-cheap semi-retirement plans until SS kicks in. No reason to stay greedy after that I figured.
But then coronavirus came and canceled the party early.
Don’t think @riverman was spiking the football at all.
He was just reiterating that you can’t time the markets, as much as you think you can.
FUCK. Any one of us could have had that job. We just had to write:
DOW
50,000
The new strategy for unlimited growth in the booming TRUMP economy!
33 and I’m not sweating it too hard. Seeing 30% swings either direction is a lot regardless. It’s not a huge piece of my portfolio.
Most of the capital used by Glazer to purchase Manchester United came in the form of loans, the majority of which were secured against the club’s assets, incurring interest payments of over £60 million per annum. The remainder came in the form of PIK loans (payment in kind loans), which were later sold to hedge funds. Manchester United was not liable for the PIKs, which were held by Red Football Joint Venture and were secured on that company’s shares in Red Football (and thus the club). The interest on the PIKs rolled up at 14.25% per annum. Despite this, the Glazers did not pay down any of the PIK loans in the first five years they owned the club
d10 just projecting the football spiking mindset he has on other people itt. Quite telling. Like this thread isn’t about judgement or beating other posters or dunking on folks. It’s about coming up with a plan for your financial future and then executing that plan. Some people’s plan is to just pick an investment strategy and stick with that through thick and thin. That’s what I’m doing, what Riverman’s doing, what spidercrab’s doing. Other people want to duck in and out of the market during crazy times and think they can do it. OK. That’s fine, good luck. That’s suzzer. Godspeed. I don’t think I can do that but I hope that he can. Then you have people like JT who maybe didn’t think about this stuff enough or miscalculated how much they wouldn’t like the markets falling, and they’re panicking a bit and readjusting their approaches during a crisis. And that’s OK too. Hopefully not too expensive of a lesson, and maybe it will pay off in peace of mind in the future.
Then you’ve got d10, who thinks he can slip in and out of the market profitably during times of crisis. Which, maybe. Good for him if true. And if he wants to share his knowledge with us, in his infinite beneficence, wonderful. But he doesn’t stop there. He goes on to berate people who have said that their years- or decades-long strategy is to simply decide on an allocation and stick to it through thick or thin that they are idiots to execute their long-held strategy. And then comes back to – in his own words – “spike the football” when their investments have lost 20% or more. Well my man, you can go fuck yourself.
Have to go to the linked page to see what Rupert Murdoch has to do with the story. A clever form of clickbait?
The thing about market timing is that if you can correctly predict a big move downward due to valuations and news events and be in a risk off position for that move without making the wrong move, you can retire with significantly more money. These events come a few times in a persons life. You don’t need to be able to predict any day to day swings. You just need to predict that it will happen or that it started happening and when in a reasonable strategy to buy back in at a low enough price without missing the bottom.
So my 1 foray in market timing went well. I only checked the BTC price a single time yesterday and it happened to be exactly at the bottom so I sold the rest of my BTC holdings thinking I’d be able to buy them back at like 3k a bit later on. To be fair, I had already sold like 80% of my holdings (not timing the market, for a different reason) before BTC took a nosedive from 7500 so I can’t feel too badly.
I was actually giving Riverman the benefit of the doubt. If missing a single day swing was actually his idea of evidence against market timing he’s much dumber than I thought. That’s literally the financial equivalent of Jim Inhofe’s snowball evidence against climate change.
You on the other hand are exactly as dumb as I thought. For a guy who claims the benefit of your strategy is reducing the “stress and hassle and worry” of following the markets you sure do post a lot about following the markets. Why don’t you do us all a favor and commit to your strategy by fucking off from this thread? It’s not like we’d be losing any insight, just constant bitching about how you’re too dumb to see obvious market moves.
Ya, this is one of the few non totally obvious effects I’ve thought about. Some businesses will also have positive effects beyond just lease costs and it won’t be trivial to go back.
Another potential play, but too much uncertainty, is credit cards and those smallish personal loan cos. Lotta people gonna need loans for next 1-6 months.
What? I’ve never said I block out news of market moves. That’s impossible, of course I know when the market falls or gains hugely. I’ve said that my strategy and mindset make it possible for those moves not to bother me at all, which is true.
Hey financial brains, can I interrupt the market timing slapfight with a new question?
What effect do you think COVID-19 will have on the market for single family homes?
Asking because my gf and I have been wanting to buy a house together for a while, and were hoping to get into it this spring/summer. Wondering how COVID-19 might make that a better or worse idea.
It seems like mortgage interest rates will slide further (right?). That’s helpful for us.
But it also seems like the gamut of people/groups we’d need to complete the transaction, from beginning to end (realtor, inspector, appraiser, loan person, title BS, etc.) might be negatively impacted and that might make the whole process way harder.
Any thoughts about the larger macro-level economic forces that might push house prices up or down, other than mortgage rates?
We’re in Seattle, one of the most annoyingly overheated housing markets around, if that makes any difference.
This is dark but it should increase the supply of 70s era fixer uppers that have thirty years of smoke coating their insides.
I’m being 100% serious too. There are going to be a lot of them.
I had the exact same thought. Problem is though that we’re not really looking for that kind of place. Looking for something that’s good to go, or with some minor (emphasis on minor) stuff that we can do ourselves.
