Infrastructure / Reconciliation / Debt Limit Sweat

So come down over a trillion for the same people to still not vote for it? Sounds like a winning strategy.

Are the EV subsidies a worthwhile thing to spend taxpayer money on, esp as part of such a limited spending package from which other things will have to get chopped? I feel like if the price of the car is X and the subsidy is for Y then the company just bumps the price to X+Y.

Examples:

  • The Wuling Huanggong Mini EV sells for $5600 overseas, but its Macaron edition will sell in the US for $15,999 in anticipation of a 10k tax rebate.

  • The Fisker Ocean will sell for $37,499 = $29,999 after a $7500 rebate.

Purchase subsidies are considered by many stakeholders as a way to get EV adoption going in the US. Which is something, generally, everyone acknowledges is going to happen and must happen for decarbonization. So, whether you find find them ā€œworthwhileā€ probably depends on how you feel about decarbonization and electric transportation.

Total cost of ownership is cheaper already, EV v internal combustion engine, but initial purchase price is still higher for EVs. Incentives also include credits for used EV purchases, which are considered a big deal in getting the secondary market going. ā€¦ Easy to see the arguments for and against. I think they amounted to about $100B, so not hard to imagine they get dropped.

Iā€™m very in favor of EV adoption. I just question whether the subsidy is really an incentive or just a gift to the automakers, since it seems like the consumerā€™s cost is the same with or without the subsidy (at least when it comes to new cars).

We ought to invest in standardized charging stations (which would be a real incentive to own an EV), but iirc that was one of the first things chopped from the bill.

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Public charging is a probably good spot for spending in the bill. It looks more like traditional infrastructure, so it may be easier to move. Itā€™s also key to boosting adoption among those who do not own a home (and hence have a place to charge). Spending on fleet adoption is also key. ā€¦ Bidenā€™s plan included 500k chargers, I think, but this is a fraction of what is needed.

When you say standardization, you mean the connector, SAE, CHADeMO, Tesla, CCS? ā€¦ I have not heard of this as a major issue in the US, in terms of holding back adoption.

I donā€™t think lack of standardization is as big of an issue as lack of places to charge generally, but imo any investment in charging would have to involve standardization. Imagine only being able to buy gas at a subset of gas stations designed for your make of car, absurd.

Reflecting on my earlier point, even if 100% of a tax rebate ends up in the car companyā€™s pocket (which I only speculated), thatā€™s still not a bad thing because weā€™re incentivizing existing automakers to transition to EV, and making it easier for EV startups to succeed. Iā€™m just not sure this would belong in a woefully underfunded bill instead of things like medicare expansion, but thereā€™s no point pondering this stuff since we have no control of the bill at this point. It sounds like the tax rebates are gonna get means tested anyway, and most of the people buying EVā€™s probably wouldnā€™t pass a means test.

In any event, the EV transition is happening with or without the Demsā€™ help. Slower than it needed to for the environment, but happening. Hard to imagine many new ICE-only cars being sold in 2025.

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Would bet we stop selling ICE cars here closer to 2040 than 2025. Needed investment in the charging infrastructure and electrical grid still lagging.

Currently EV like 2% of the market here of new car sales

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Yeah this. My car is on its last legs, and Iā€™ve always said Iā€™m 99% sure my next one will be ICE and also 99% sure the one after that will be EV. Outside of oddball spaces at some local malls I donā€™t even know where the hell charging stations are around here.

I think we definitely turn the corner on the infrastructure, but that wonā€™t happen until late in this decade I think.

Yeah me either. I know there are some in the garage at my office. Other than that no idea where any are near me. Could maybe be convinced to do my next car EV, but dont see making all my cars (house has 4 drivers) EV for quite some time.

Wouldnā€™t it make sense for all of the charging stations to have a charge plug and an additional 220 volt receptacle and drivers to carry around the appropriate cable for their car? I donā€™t own an EV, but I assume the plug that goes into the power source is the same 220v standard plug.

I also suspect itā€™s Tesla thatā€™s holding out on standardization for the connection on the car side.

you can use some state and maybe federal subsidies to install a faster charger at home. it does favor home owners over everyone else, and does so inefficiently, but installing one eases EV proliferation, but i also believe it will redistribute the need for public stations somewhat. many consumers will charge mostly at home.

i have thought about the feasibility of buying a large battery and dc charger, and blocking off a space in my driveway or a parking lot for paid public charging.

like, would blink or tesla include it in their system to route people who need to charge?

itā€™s not a standard anything. most batteries charge from 120v ac at a rate of ~2mi of range per hour of charge. if you bump it to 220v, it will still probably be in 5-10 mi/hr. to get fast charging of dc batteries, you need dc.

tesla has been surreptitious around its plug design. musk publicly opened up its patents, but in fact few companies would want to be locked in to something tesla did early on. because, well you are never sure if itā€™s going to continue to be a good design. plus whole car companies are even considering fuel cells over batteries, so the plug itself is just tech debt. weā€™ll be upgrading chargers for a long time.

I see. I didnā€™t realize the 43+kW chargers were different than the 220 volt plugs that people install at home. Makes sense now. Someone really needs to win the standardization fight.

I have a Tesla and we charge it at home on a 220v outlet we had installed in the garage. It gets up to 30 miles per hour, especially if the battery is low anyway.

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thatā€™s very good, and good to know. i test drove two EVs, eGolf, and the kia one. both had pretty dismal ac charging.

but when i get an EV iā€™m definitely going for a home charger

There arr some pretty good sites out there that catalogue available chargers in your area

These tables helped me understand the charge times. 3.7 and 7kW are the standard home chargers.

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Pretty good video about the problems with EV adoption and why standardization of charging is so important.

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Yeah, we really wanted to get a leaf for city driving and it was a great investment, but we were poor and decided against the fast charge port which in hindsight was a big mistake. It makes our EV a local driving only car. At its fastest it takes about 2-3hours to charge fully which makes any real distance travel impossible