Is it worth giving Manchin everything he wants in the climate section if you can get him to move off of some of his other demands and get the topline closer to $2.5 billion?
Well we can revisit in 2023 when QE actually ends maybe.
āI wasnāt trying to be a fly in the ointment at all. Iāve never been. Iāve never been a liberal in any way shape or form,ā Manchin said. "For them to get theirs, I guess elect more liberals. Iām not asking them to change. Iām willing to come from zero to $1.5" trillion.
So Manchinās compromise $1.5T, but what he actually wants is zero?
It might be worth it if he wouldnāt then take two steps back and tell you have to go a little further or no deal.
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Its not gonna happen with that climate ask, there will be more than three defectors. BBB is dead if this is at all accurate. Manchin is going to pivot towards blasting the progressives for a year heading into the midterms for not passing the bipartisan bill.
Who do you think would replace Schumer? Is Klob the best-case realistic possibility?
fwiw, I think Schumer is a fair bit above average for that batch of dem senators. Though warren/sanders wonāt be leader, I guess Klob is the best compromise? At least I think sheās fully aware of whatās going on or at least she wonāt hesitate to throw things at people if needed.
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Probably. Its just the principle, if Schumer agreed to this and only him and Manchin knew it then progressives can no longer negotiate with Schumer on this bill. Heās not a trustworthy partner.
Maybe that didnt happen, but everything public was there was an agreement for $3.5 trillion and a dual track and hereās a signed agreement saying $1.5 trillion, not dual tracked, and climate is dust before negotiations begin. Its a complete betrayal of trust and if I were negotiating I would demand a different counterparty to continue.
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last I saw yesterday schumer didnāt agree to anything manchin said or was doing.
Did you see the signed document in the tweet above? He did scrawl at the bottom āI will try and get Joe to do betterā. Pretty clear that there was no agreement to dual track and, in fact, a promise to Manchin not to dual track with moderates demanding a vote prior to the 10/1 date Manchin and Schumer agreed to delay reconciliation debate.
Theres no real other way to read it other than dual tracking was a complete lie.
For ease of reference
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Dick Durbin is #2 in Senate leadership, but maybe Patty Murray is best positioned to take over.
It isnt going to happen, but just man, how can you even negotiate with the Senate going forward on this if you are the House progressive caucus?
What if progressives have know about Manchinās letter all along?
Hope Schumer enjoys facing aoc in a democratic primary.
Schumer would crush her.
Then its obviously different, but any reason to think thats the case when weāve heard āhad a deal at $3.5 trillion and dual trackā for months? I can even buy the $3.5 was a lie that everyone knew about and this was a negotiation, but the flat lie on dual track I have a real hard time thinking was known.
Maybe. They said the same thing about Crowley. Sheās really good at running for office. I think sheās exceptionally nasty in a normally low turnout primary as well.
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AOC has 0% chance against Schumer in NYS. I donāt know the numbers, I just have lived there, and my family currently lives there. May be wrong, but I highly doubt it.
I would tend to agree. Over half of NY state population is outside of NYC, theyāre like 80% white, and theyāre generally Deplorables when it comes to politics. AOCās electoral victory was admirable, but her congressional district is almost 50% Hispanic and urban. NY State (as a whole) and her district are basically two different worlds.
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But the primary is what matters. So the deplorables in Poughkeepsie donāt really matter, right?
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