Wages having been going up though!
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Spent two weeks in San Diego. Rents are outrageous–$2k-4k/month range from what I gather. Yet they’re building like crazy there. Doesn’t make sense.
Glad I lived there when I did, because I certainly couldn’t comfortably afford to live there today.
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Yea pretty much.
As a wannabe first-time homebuyer I’m convinced our purchase will be the thing that truly signals the top of the housing market.
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When it comes to San Diego, I’m convinced there is no top. Met my cousin while there. She mentioned that the home she bought in San Marcos for about $325k in 2009 is now worth over $1mil.
It’s in the same neighborhood in which, when I first moved there in 2001, I considered buying a similar home that was then priced well under $200k.
Whatever amount of housing they’re building in San Diego is nowhere near the amount that equals "People that would live in San Diego if housing was affordable.
325K to 1 million over 15 years is like 8% a year. Doesn’t seem that crazy.
Perhaps not, but is that typical of the US market as a whole? (Asking as one who’s never been a US homeowner.)
Typical for the most desirable places on earth, not typical for shitty everywhere else.
I think a lot of major metros in the US have homes that have appreciated approx 8%/yr over that time period.
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This is an article about the planning of the area in San Diego I was born and raised in, with so many bonkers quotes in retrospect
There are people who say North City West will be a model community, one that will provide relief for the city’s housing shortage and accommodate the incoming tide of would-be residents. There are others who say it is a capitulation to development companies, a classic symbol of growth gone wild in San Diego.
the future residents of North City West could sleep, work, shop, and play without ever leaving the boundaries of the community. They could park their cars — even sell them — and ride mass transit to other parts of San Diego
lol ah yes i remember riding the bus around in my 15 minute city as a child
Agriculture is the county’s third largest industry, and a ten-mile-wide strip along the coast accounts for nearly fifty percent of the county’s gross agricultural revenue. “I have to ask whether wc can put that project in without considering the impact on agriculture,” says Gotch. “We just don’t have that much agricultural land left here, particularly for specialty coast crops like tomatoes and flowers.”
won’t someone please think of the tomato farmers
“I’m trying to protect the interests of people who live in San Diego right now,” he emphasized. “As elected officials, that’s our responsibility, and if we’re not going to violate that, we can’t promote the type of project that will hurt the quality of life here and dip into the pocketbooks of residents.
It’s not a New York or Chicago, but that’s what Pete Wilson wants it to be. He’s trying to change the face of San Diego. He says we need a convention center downtown so we can compete with Chicago for conventions. He says we need to attract industry and that we need to accommodate growth with projects like North City West. I say hogwash. I say we don’t need it.
2023 convention center economic impact estimate… $1,300,000,000
Schnaubelt, an outspoken libertarian opposed in principle to government regulation. says that the whole question of where and when development takes place should be left to free-market forces. And according to him, the market is now forcing a need for North City West. He estimates the project will generate $3.5 billion in jobs over a twenty-year period — jobs not just for construction workers but for swimming pool contractors, drapery hangers, landscapers — a major stimulant for San Diego’s economy. “But the overriding major benefit,” he told me, “will be that young people graduating from high school and college will have a place to live.”
an “outspoken libertarian” is the most sensible person in the entire article
Roe rejects the charge that Del Mar’s position is elitist. “We are concerned with the quality of life and our environment,” he says, “and we don’t take kindly to people who aren’t. But we’re not antigrowth. We don’t want to build a wall and keep people out. We just want to strike a balance between what’s best for developers and what’s best for us.”
current avg home asking price in del mar according to zillow… $3.7 million
I have a very good friend who flies hawks, and we were arguing recently because I just built some houses in Laguna Niguel in an area where he used to take his hawks to hunt rabbits. And he told me, ‘Aw shit, you’ve screwed up one of my last spots!’ But heck, if you want to live where there’s nothing but tomato fields or open space, well then, you should move from San Diego. San Diego County and Orange County together are, I think, one of the most unique areas in the whole world. There’s always going to he a natural draw of people into the area, and I think you should plan logically for that and build good developments."
“It won’t be long before it’ll be solid houses from here to there. Maybe it’s inevitable like everyone says. I’m an anachronism, I guess. People in San Diego don’t have ears to hear environmentalists any more. I was bom and raised here, but I’ll be leaving soon.”
this is the last line in the article, damn.
This article was from 1981!
"But the houses are for high-income people already, aren’t they? They’re going to cost $150,060 each.
"Yeah, but that’s a cheap house today. That’s a tract house! (He laughs.) I hope they only cost $150,000. Some of them will cost $200,000. "
LOL.
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Wages have been going up 8% a year, I’m not sure why everybody is being a baby.
Are you just learning now that people are not rational about household finances, economics, and politics?
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I have noticed that people dramatically overestimate the compounding growth in asset prices when it comes to real estate. Like they buy a house in 1998 for $125k and now it’s worth $900k, and it’s like zomgg, when in reality it underperformed an index fund.
In a sane world this would be an apples to oranges comparison. Equities are vehicles for capital accumulation, houses are where you sleep and live. If stocks don’t appreciate more then inflation they don’t work as intended; if houses appreciate more than inflation we will all end up homeless.
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The funny thing is that if you talk to people who actually own houses, they’ll mostly tell you that if their property values aren’t going up vs inflation, then things are definitely NOT working as intended.
Yeah but nobody was going to was going to loan them 125k to put in an index fund and you can’t shelter from the rain in an index fund
Additionally, for people like my million-dollar-home cousin referenced above or even my retired mother, whose condo has doubled in value since she bought it about 15 years ago, selling their homes in the current climate is not an option despite all the massive “gains.”
Sell and move to the valley. EZ game!
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They could sell and then relocate or rent.
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They also should realize that the return on the house has been less than 5% per year, meaning that it’s simply a place to live, not an investment.