That matters, the <100 metric does not.
He’s definitely an important one to watch.
And once they get there the next question is how much do they care? Enough to pressure Pelosi and hold her feet to the fire and come after her power? If so, it’ll get done. If not, it probably won’t. Just remember, Pelosi’s top priority is Pelosi’s power.
Why do you keep calling this a metric? It’s a milestone. Any interesting number is a milestone, it has no technical meaning for ‘what people will do’ outside of the media celebrating it and Congresspeople’s sphincters tightening when they near one. When you drive somewhere far away do you only look at the mile marker when you start and that’s it? Or do you go, ‘oh cool I’m finally under 100 miles’. People like passing half, and passing 100 on road trips as markers. The next milestone will be 67%. The road trip comparison is what my meaning is here.
Also, according to Nadler they’re in an official impeachment investigation already. They’re supposedly just building the evidence to proceed to Articles of Impeachment. While it’s not official as in there wasn’t a full vote to refer it to the Judiciary Committee, the Judiciary Committee is investigating referred Articles of Impeachment (the media rarely reports on this fyi).
Remember, if the full House votes on starting an official impeachment inquiry, they’re just going to be telling the Judiciary Committee to open an official impeachment inquiry. Nadler says that’s already happened. Do you need the ceremony? Really everything depends on what the courts think of the McGahn thing. If they say, ‘well, you needed to have an official impeachment inquiry vote for us to believe you’, then that’s why this groundswell is happening. They aren’t expecting a ruling on the McGahn subpoena until October. So they have until then to start an official one without getting slapped by the courts.
I think we’ll have at a minimum a soft floor of 160 by the time they return from recess, and I think it will probably be more. You have to pay attention to the optics of this for the people coming out on the record. I’m pretty sure most members of Congress don’t want to be a person hitting even a milquetoast milestone. That’s why I think there was a stall on Friday.
With Trump saying that he’s holding the G7 at one of his properties next year, that’s another beyond the pale moment that should get more people on the record. We’ll see if it happens.
Call it whatever you want, I guess, just don’t call it important.
That’s bullshit and you and he both know it. They don’t get to have it both ways on this.
Haha, good one. You can be funny when you want to!
But no seriously nobody cares where the G7 is. His supporters probably think it’s only fair that he get to skim a little profit off the G7 for being president, and the rest of us are too worked up over child concentration camps, the imminent death of the planet, the prospects of Russia meddling in 2020, and the chances of being gunned down in a Wal Mart to worry too much over some brazen broad daylight corruption.
Well, if it’s bullshit then they will start an official impeachment inquiry when they get back from recess or within a few weeks after so that the courts can’t see through it and have that affect their ruling. I’m pretty sure the lawsuit was filed a few days before they went on recess, so they could easily say to the court that they didn’t have time to vote on something before then.
If they don’t start something and you’re right about it being bullshit, they’ll lose the McGahn case. Then they’ll have to just go ahead and start an official impeachment inquiry anyway, because they won’t be able to wait for the courts anymore. Schiff said an official impeachment inquiry is going to happen regardless of what the courts decide on McGahn, the court rulings just might change what Articles of Impeachment are brought.
And again, I just have to say stop downplaying what’s going on. Politico started tracking this on August 16th. August 16th man, which shows that they didn’t think it was a story worth reporting/tracking until then. This is a story that is moving. THIS is the sort of horse race politics that should be covered, not effing primaries that are 6 months away from the first ones happening.
And again, you keep speaking to how others will deal with corruption. We’re in a moment of open corruption for the GOP (this happened in case you’re looking for a benchmark the night Tom Price was confirmed in the middle of the night). We are not in a moment of open corruption for the Democratic Party. The people who sit on the sidelines of this shit will forever be labeled as openly corrupt by association and that they have no interest in supporting their simple fucking number one Constitutional duty.
I actually want this impeachment stuff dispatched ASAP, so that people in the Democratic Party in Congress who are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry by the beginning of the year are able to get primaried. If anyone other than pure leadership types aren’t on the record by the end of the recess, I’m going to assume they need to be primaried, because if you can’t hold up your simple number one Constitutional duty you frankly shouldn’t be in the House, Democrat or GOP.
Yeah at this point Pelosi had better be pulling the briar patch strat.
It’s bullshit because the leadership strategy is to not impeach, so instead they’re trying to have their cake and eat it to by telling the people like you, “See? This is JUST like impeachment!” and then telling the people on the right, “Don’t worry, we’re not impeaching him…”
Regardless of what happens from here, that’s been their strategy so far and it’s bullshit.
No they won’t.
That’d be nice, but leadership is going to keep playing, “Will they or won’t they?” for as long as possible to prevent this from happening.
You aren’t paying enough attention to what they’re actually saying if you actually believe a lot of what you’re saying here.
Nadler’s qualification is that they could still not file Articles of Impeachment, but they’re for sure planning to do that probably late November or December, and are really just waiting for court cases to clear before moving forward. They will be doing hearings when they get back from recess that they are planning on running through the fall.
Their goal is to get McGahn forced by the court, and then they believe the rest of the dominoes will fall. It’s a gutsy strategy, because if they don’t get the courts to agree that McGahn doesn’t have executive privilege those dominoes won’t fall. They don’t want to wait around for this to percolate into the election. Schiff, who had basically said ‘what’s the point, the Senate’s going to do nothing?’ was very strong in his language that this is going to happen, and screw the Senate. He even said that if they lose in court, they’ll just use the Obstruction of Congress as an Article of Impeachment. They are for sure in a win/win right now, but you seem to refuse to see that.
Castro said at the debate that if they don’t actually follow through with impeachment he’ll be able to run on ‘see, they didn’t think I did anything wrong or they would have impeached me’, which sets an absolutely horrible precedent for future corruption and presidents. He’s practically channeling me for why this MUST happen. If you somehow think that the Congresspeople who have gone on the record for this are doing it for ‘cover’ on them caring about their Constitutional duty and have no plans on following through then we are in major disagreement. A lot of the people who have come out in the last several weeks are in very vulnerable seats or are considered very conservative Democrats. Ben Ray Lujan came out last week. He’s the Assistant to the Speaker and is running for Senate. That’s huge man. Ignore it all you want, but this looks like a strategy of roll out as I am the person really paying attention to it here. I don’t even know what you are really expecting to happen during a 6 week Congressional recess where Trump has made an excellent case for being 25th’d.
I personally think you should just stop saying you’re the ‘reality check’ for impeachment, just call yourself the ‘Debbie Downer’ and we’ll be good. The conditions on the ground are in near constant movement, with at least 1 person per week from leadership coming out, and you keep saying ‘nah, it’s all bullshit’. I completely disagree with that take.
The Dems are obviously trying to do this legally through the courts. Pelosi will have to submit at some point. I don’t think it will work b/c the Trump Administration will try to run out the clock to the 2020 election. They are only 13-14 months away at this point. My car accident case took 3 years before it was settled lol.
Schiff recently said ‘Justice delayed is justice denied’. He said they’re not going to wait for the courts, and knows the strategy for sure is to try to run out the clock. Several cases are going to hit a head in October, with the main one being the McGahn subpoena enforcement. If those don’t go in Congress’s favor, they’re just going to move ahead without the courts based on what Schiff said (he’s obviously for impeachment, but has been one of the most lukewarm about it in public until very recently).
They want to dispatch this by the end of the year from everything they’ve been saying. This isn’t an election year gambit, but how it goes can absolutely be beneficial/detrimental to many people during the election season.
One thing I will say is that Raja Krishnamoorthi was interviewed by Lawrence tonight, and he says there’s no coordination going on for people going on the record. He says it’s an individual conscience thing, and said he wrestled hard with doing it and made his decision based on lots of things including public and ‘classified’ information (the unredacted Mueller report).
The Intelligence Committee having access to the unredacted Mueller report is why the Intelligence Committee Democrats are only one person outside of Chairman Schiff (Terri Sewell) away from all of them being on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.
He seemed kind of relieved and laughed when Lawrence referred to him as 133, even though I know he knows he’s really 136.
Impeachment isn’t happening. No amount of wishcasting will make the Dem leadership into the people you so desperately want them to be.
This thread is just “They are defintely getting the tax returns” 2.0 for you because you are blind to reality. The actual people with the power in the Dem party aren’t on our side. Until that changes this is just a dog and pony show meant to give hope to people like you.
Bill Foster of Illinois is the 137th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution. He makes a hard floor of 144 Democratic members of Congress in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.
Three members from Illinois have come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry in the last week. The only two of the 13 Democratic members from Illinois who have not come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry are Daniel Lipinski (Blue Dog) and Cheri Bustos.
Relevant twitter thread that makes sense to me.
https://twitter.com/blakesmustache/status/1166338399642558465?s=21
Eh seems like fantasy
Nah, I think he’s off here. It’s not running with what’s been happening. I believe Nadler when he says their plan is to file Articles of Impeachment by December. I also believe Adam Schiff when he says that they will be proceeding regardless of how court cases go. I’m under the firm belief that they don’t want this to be an election year happening, and would love to get it dispatched by the end of the year.
Based on what that guy’s saying, it would suggest the Senate would get on board if what he hopes to find in those documents happens. I still don’t think they will, or I at least think it will fall short of 67 votes.
From everything I’ve been following, and I’ve been following this pretty closely, the DB/Mazars stuff is not the focus of what they’re doing. I believe them when they say that stuff is being gotten so they can legislate to make a lot of stuff illegal that isn’t currently illegal.
The House is mainly moving on the obstruction part of the investigation, and that’s what they’re going to be working on when they get back. They’re also dovetailing Volume I because of Trump’s apparent desire to do it on an even bigger scale in 2020. They subpoenaed Rob Porter to appear on September 17 (he won’t do it obviously), which suggests there will be hearings going on pretty quickly after they return from recess.
The way the thread reads is dangerously close to saying Congress is betting it all on a fishing expedition. If that is actually a true representation of what they’re doing, they’ll lose in court. I don’t think it’s a true representation of what they’re doing and the thread seems to have a lot of wish casting in it.
Keep in mind, the case that’s ready to go right now is obstruction, at least 7 dead to rites instances of it. They can’t officially move forward on Articles of Impeachment until they’ve reviewed the underlying material (DOJ won’t give it to them) and/or they have witnesses testify to what’s in the underlying material.
Going off the redacted report without witnesses or underlying documentation is the equivalent of a prosecutor going to court and saying, ‘he did it, I can’t show you why, but my investigators told me it happened, so you must convict’.
Finally, Nadler expects most of the court cases to be coming to a head in October (especially the McGahn subpoena), so things will likely be in high gear in November regardless of how those cases go. The DB/Mazars stuff will likely be going on in the background, and we might not even hear much about it. I doubt it will take them 3 months to find a smoking gun in that documentation based on who’s been hired to review it. If they get the stuff in November, they will probably have good ideas of what’s going on within weeks, which would dovetail into what’s already ongoing.
Great thread, but it leaves out the part where Senate Republicans say “LOL what money laundering? Not guilty,” then go on Fox News to rant about the partisan Dems playing political games in an election year because liberal Pelosi is so liberal and mean to duly elected Donald.
https://twitter.com/blakesmustache/status/1166353590874775558
Like no way a sane or sober person would make this “guess.”
eh, this Uncle Blazer fellow may not be an entirely reliable source:
https://twitter.com/blakesmustache/status/1168838346472378369
Update: still not impeached
My Congressman blew off my communication with him, when I specifically asked for a follow up. He could have let me know a town hall was happening where I could have confronted him on this, too, butnah. Gonna try to help him get ousted next time around if he’s somehow not on the record by next week (he won’t be).