Impeachment Watch by The Numbers

How does she feel on VETS?

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I appreciate the updates

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CNN’s list is starting to diverge from others, so I’m going to start using the Politico and ActBlue ones (they’re the same), while still following CNN’s to see if they catch up. Right now there is a divergence of 4 Democratic members of Congress in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry between the Politico and CNN lists. I’ve now created a spreadsheet that will make everything much easier to update without looking for needles in stacks of needles.

This is the link I will be using for future reference for now:

It has a ton of data in it, but isn’t a simple list. Thanks to Smacc for pointing me in this direction.

ActBlue is the secondary list:

The one member I wasn’t aware of on the list is:

Ro Khanna (CA) who voted Yay on tabling the Al Green impeachment resolution. That makes the hard floor for support of starting an official impeachment inquiry 133 Democratic members of Congress.

The other 2 missing from CNN’s list were Karen Bass (CA) and Frank Pallone (NJ). That means of my 10 outstanding Nay votes from the other day, 3 more are apparently on the record.

Today’s member that came out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry is Anthony Brown of Maryland. He voted Nay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution, so the hard floor remains 133. He is the 126th Democratic member of Congress to support starting an official impeachment inquiry.

A final note on the Politico site is that it mentions any person who has supported any Al Green impeachment resolution at any time (he’s done a few for sure that I know of since 2017). I’ll list ones that are not on the Nay side of the tabling of the recent Al Green impeachment resolution for completeness.

  1. Alcee Hastings (FL)
  2. Lois Frankel (FL)
  3. John Lewis (GA)
  4. David Scott (GA)
  5. Hakeem Jeffries (NY)
  6. Anthony Brindisi (NY)
  7. James Clyburn (SC)
  8. Sylvia Garcia (TX, Judiciary Committee)

This suggests that the hard floor of Democrats in Congress who would support starting an official impeachment inquiry is 141. Several people in the 8 above are in leadership or trying for leadership positions inside the party and aren’t going to buck Pelosi until it’s time. Garcia would be the magic number of 21 House Judiciary Committee Democrats who could officially okay an official impeachment inquiry that only emanates from the Judiciary Committee.

Trivia Nugget: We are only 10 members away from dropping below 100 not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. I sincerely hope that bar will be crossed before the end of the House recess.

Ben Lujan of New Mexico is the 127th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay on tabling Al Green’s impeachment resolution. That puts the hard floor at 134 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He is running for a Senate seat in 2020.

CNN added him and Anthony Brown today to get their list to 124. They’re still missing Karen Bass, Frank Pallone, and Ro Khanna.

Frank Underwood of South Carolina has come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Nah, just kidding, it was Lauren Underwood of Illinois. She is the 128th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.

She voted Yay on tabling the Al Green impeachment resolution. That puts the hard floor at 135 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.

Underwood is significant in that the freshman won her R+4 district in Illinois in 2018 (she is considered the 16th most liberal voting member of the House). She defeated a 4 term Tea Party Republican in 2018 (who won in 2016 with nearly 60 percent of the vote). Her coming out on the record has only been reported on Politico’s site so far, so this is hot off the presses.

It’s now appropriate to begin a new countdown to the next milestone. Only 107 Democrats in the House are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Who will be the one to get it below number 100? Stay tuned…

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I doubt getting it under 100 matters. Getting like two-thirds of the caucus will matter.

It’s just a milestone.

Politico is apparently getting information no one else is getting, as they have added two more today that are not being reported elsewhere yet.

C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger of Maryland is the 129th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution. He is in his 9th term as a Congressman. Prior to 2016, he was the ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence from 2011-2015. He’s not on the committee at all anymore. I have no idea why.

David Trone of Maryland is the 130th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He succeeded everyone’s favorite man, John Delaney. He also voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution. Trone has a bit of a chequered past with several failed prosecutions against him, and has ‘hosted fundraisers’. He endorsed his main man John Delaney for president, so you know this guy sux. If a guy like this is on board here, serious dominoes are seemingly about to fall.

That makes 3 members from Maryland who have gone on the record in the last week. John Sarbanes, Steny Hoyer, and Elijah Cummings are the only ones there left. Obviously don’t expect Hoyer or Cummings to come out on the record any time soon.

This makes a hard floor of 137 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Only 105 Democratic members of Congress are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Who will be next? Stay tuned…

I for one appreciate the updates you do for this, thanks.

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James Langevin of Rhode Island is the 131st Democratic member of Congress to come out in support of starting an official inquiry. He voted Yay to table Al Green’s impeachment resolution. He has been in the House since 2001.

He makes a hard floor of 138 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Only 104 to go. Will any others go on the record today? That’s not for me to say. Stay tuned…

Sean Maloney of New York is the 132nd Democratic member of Congress to come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry, with a caveat. Politico has now given additional context for why Karen Bass and Frank Pallone are not on ‘the record’ with places like CNN. From Politico:

  • (asterisk) These lawmakers have indicated that they would vote for impeachment or impeachment inquiry if presented with an up-or-down vote even though they haven’t endorsed it as their preferred course.

They’re the asterisks. Sean Maloney has joined them in this regard. It’s a way of being strong and wimpy at the same time, so I’m guessing this is going to ultimately be how much of the Senior membership or members with ambition that are not out will do this. Maloney voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution.

He makes a hard floor of 139 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He is significant because he’s on the Intelligence Committee (has read the unredacted Mueller report), and he is clearly angling for a move at Pelosi’s right hand. His stance isn’t surprising based on his Mueller performance, but politically as a calculation it sort of is.

10 of the 13 Democratic members of the House Intelligence Committee are now in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Schiff is surely for it, as well. Terri Sewell of Alabama and Raja Krishnamoorthi (1000 percent for, in my opinion, but is standing with Pelosi for now) are the only ones left. The GOP members of the Intelligence Committee (minus Hurd, maybe) are all currently searching the internet for the latest updates from QAnon.

103 Democratic members of Congress are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. What’s your prediction for when that drops below 100? Mine is Monday, but this has been a moving week so it could be sooner. Stay tuned…

Two more have gone on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. They are:

Bill Keating of Massachusetts is the 133rd Democratic member of Congress to come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution.

Brad Schneider of Illinois is the 134th Democratic member of Congress to come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution.

Brad Schneider makes the hard floor 141 Democratic members of Congress who are in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.

As additional pieces of info, Brad Schneider is a Blue Dog Democrat, and Bill Keating was chosen as a target by the Republicans to try to take down in 2018. That did not remotely end up well for them.

That brings the total to 101 Democratic members of Congress who are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Only 2 more to go to break 100. Who will it be to seize the opportunity? Stay tuned…

Mark Takano of California is the 135th Democratic member of Congress to come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution.

He makes the hard floor 142 Democratic members of Congress in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.

Congrats to CNN for finally scooping Politico for a change. That makes 100 Democratic members of Congress left to come out on the record in support of starting an official inquiry. I guess we’ll find out soon who wants to be the one to cross the milestone. Stay tuned…

Ali Velshi might even remember their name at the end of the interview! :wink:

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I really really hope someone doesn’t break the dam tomorrow and end up interviewed on a Friday.

Because the lists are divergent right now, I don’t even think anyone will report under 100 until there are 136 on CNN or NBC’s lists. CNN and NBC are at 130. ActBlue is at 134. Politico is at 135. So while the milestone on Politico is ‘real’, it probably won’t become a story until the other lists move over 135. That will probably happen sometime next week. MSNBC’s starting to report on the lists again, so they’ll be ready with their fill in host for an interview when it happens. ;)

I have to say, and maybe I’ve said this already, this slow boil, behind the scenes impeachment inquiry gambit is over-performing expectations, don’t know what the end game is though.

The important thing to remember is that almost everyone who’s coming out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry in the last 2 or 3 weeks have been people who voted Yay to table Al Green’s impeachment resolution. My soft floor right now is I think 151 (some of those will definitely not come out until the very end). The last 9 that came out on the record all voted Yay. Other than Nadler the last Nay was Nita Lowey. That means 18 of the last 20 on the record were not in support of starting an impeachment inquiry until they did. Probably close to 85 percent of the ones who have come out on the record since Mueller were Yay voters. I think nearly 40 have gone on the record since Mueller’s testimony, and 50 since Al Green’s impeachment resolution was tabled.

The House won’t return from recess for another 2+ weeks. There should be a high number on the record by then, and Nadler claimed they will moving into high gear on what they’re doing with investigations/testimony when they get back. I think I’ll be pretty surprised if we’re not at least at 150 by the time they return the way it’s going. A lot of the moderate Democrats are starting to come out, which suggests this is a planned roll out timed to coincide with the House’s return.

My thing is if you come back from the recess without being on the record, unless you’re super leadership or super ambitious, I’m going to think you’re abdicating your Constitutional duty. If you’re in a vulnerable district, and that’s your reason for not doing your duty, I want you gone.

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CNN has scooped again.

Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois is the 136th Democratic member of Congress to go on record in support of something similar to starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution, and makes a hard floor of 143 Democratic members of Congress in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. I’m not saying CNN jumped the gun here, but the language they used to determine this strikes me as a bit weak:

[Congress has] now come to a point where we must engage in an investigation to not only expose wrongdoing and prevent it from happening again, but also to determine whether the current President engaged in behavior meriting the beginning of impeachment proceedings.

Krishnamoorthi (yes I know how to spell his name from memory) is significant for a number of reasons if you buy that statement as meaning he’s in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry.

  1. According to Politico’s list, he would be the 136th member, dropping it to 99 Democratic members who are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. CNN’s list is at 131 right now, so this might not be the ‘real’ milestone according to the media.
  2. Krishnamoorthi is on the House Intelligence Committee, and has read the unredacted Mueller report.
  3. He is angling for leadership positions in the House, and he for sure has only waited this long to not run afoul of Pelosi. If this 136 is the ‘real’ milestone of dropping below 100, Pelosi probably wanted someone important to break that barrier. If it’s not, I would expect either some no name opportunistic Congressperson or a major person in the Democratic Party to break the ‘official’ barrier.

I think his language is weak, especially where he says ‘whether the current President engaged in behavior meriting the beginning of impeachment proceedings’.

That sounds to me like he’s trying to figure out whether we should begin impeachment proceedings, not that we should begin them.

While writing this, Politico has put him on the record, crossing them to 136 and dropping the number to 99 Democratic members of Congress who are not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. We’ll see if he gets any air time out of this. I’m hoping a dam sort of breaks here, but it might take another 5 for that to happen.

As a last bit of info, I predicted this milestone would be passed today last week, so I’m gonna take that win.

Someone needs to inject some reality into this thread from time to time, so here it is:

Pelosi doesn’t give a fuck about this “milestone” or who breaks this “barrier” nor does she likely even know or care that this “milestone” or “barrier” has been broken, let alone who breaks it. This milestone/barrier only matters in the mind of you and perhaps the media. Two-thirds of the caucus is a number that could matter.

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Call her up and ask for a comment to see what she (her office) says.

I don’t know who, but I heard in a report on TV last week that something like 7 Committee heads are on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. The way this is rolling out over the past couple of weeks seems much more strategic to me than random. All you have to do is look at who’s coming out on the record to see that. We’re still 2 weeks from their return from recess.

The key member to watch for is Hakeem Jeffries. He supported one of the Al Green impeachment resolutions probably in 2017 when Democrats were in the minority, but he is standing hard with Pelosi. Remember, Pelosi’s never going to come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry because the Speaker of the House traditionally doesn’t vote on anything.

As for your 2/3 comment, they’re at a hard floor of 143 and a soft floor of 151 right now. 2/3 is 157 members.