Brown is not a generic D in Ohio. Obviously not everyone is going to vote for him, but his supporters LOVE him. IMO there’s virtually no chance that he loses in a world where Biden wins.
I looked it up awhile back. Replacement has to be a Republican.
Where Biden wins the national election or where Biden wins Ohio specifically?
Where Biden wins the election. There is a 0% chance Biden wins Ohio. (Much to my dismay.)
I agree the Senate is going to be close and possibly a loss just because of the map. I think it’s more likely Biden wins in a landslide than he loses. But again, it’s 7.5 months out and anything can happen. I think if Cruz’s seat looks competitive in October (not Beto competitive but real competitive), the Dems will hold the Senate. I can’t see them picking up more than 2 seats either. This was the worst map for them of the last 10 years (maybe 2018 was similar?) and I can’t imagine a blue enough wave to send some fools packing who should be, unless something goes really nuts like a shutdown that’s easily able to be laid at the feet of the GOP.
I think worst case scenario for Dems in the Senate is 52-48 GOP, even though I struggle to see the flips. The Dems put up really good middle of the road type Senate candidates that won’t piss off voters in the elections they won in 2018. I’ll look at the map again and see if I can see something more clearly. Nevada’s demographics went really weird in 2020 because of the pandemic, so it’s a bit of a wild card, even though the only notable Dem loss was Governor because of how he handled the pandemic.
Agree with just about all of this, except that worst case imo means Democrats lose WV/OH/MT/AZ/MI/PA/NV/WI.
I don’t think it will happen, but those are all Trump 2016 states, except for the hard-to-predict Nevada.
It’s amazing to me that the fossil hasn’t stepped down because of this. He’s like the Carl Icahn of Senators. He can’t stop himself from wrecking people’s lives even though he’s way too old to still care about that anymore.
I just looked up the wiki, and I just can’t really see anything that looks much different than what I said. The tossups are supposedly Arizona, Montana, and Ohio. I think all those will ultimately go D. Michigan is maybe one other vulnerability, but I’m not terribly concerned about it. The only flip is WV, which will go GOP. That leaves us with a 50/50 split if I’m right (correct?). Cruz is somewhat vulnerable. Maybe Rick Scott is too, if someone of substance comes out of the Dem primary (ha!). The real wild card is if Steve Garvey can become California’s next Senator (lol). I also saw some article that said Larry Hogan is making some move in Maryland but I doubt that will come through for him since it’s too blue and he’d obviously caucus with the GOP. I basically see Dems 52-48 as their best chance with some hard flips, and GOP with 52-48 as a real possibility. I think it will probably be 50-50 or 51-49 either way, mainly because there isn’t really much for the Dems to flip and everything outside of Manchin’s seat is just needing to hold.
Yes that would be correct, which would mean whoever is VP would be the tiebreaker. (Though if Democrats can hold on to 50 senate seats, that will mean that Biden will almost certainly have won)
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Vote harder.
Idk about the rest but really confident that PA and MI seats are staying blue.
I would think it’s physically impossible for Trump to win by a landslide in the popular vote. I don’t think he could do it in the electoral vote either
Depends on what you define as a landslide in the Electoral College
I don’t think even Spencer Tracy could save that bad day at Black Rock
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I just looked at this map and the Electoral College has very little margin for error due to 3 electoral vote losses in blue states net.
Electoral College gonna make even a popular landslide a sweaty night until 3am or so on election night.
There is definitely a world where Biden takes N Carolina and Florida along with the states he took last time.
It may not result in an 11 PM call by the AP like in 2008, but we’ll all be very comfortable going to be that night.
(I don’t think this scenario is very likely either, but I’d give it a higher probability than the R landslide map I posted above.)
EDIT: I’m reaching a bit with Florida, but I legitimately think North Carolina is in play this year. The Republicans are putting up a goddamn lunatic for governor.
I’d be happy if Texas just went ahead and nuked Trump like they really want to. If that happens, you might see Cruz gone too.
If you want some hopium on Cruz, most recent Texas poll:
Poll found Trump up 4 on Biden (and voted for Trump +5 in 2020), so might be legit. Other polls show Cruz in better shape though.
After having spent way too much of the last few years in Texas (and Florida) and being in supposedly blue parts of those states, I would gladly bet large sums of money against a democrat being elected
Texas wants to nuke Trump? What world are you living in?