I’m calling it now. Dems run AZ, GA and NV to get to 51. Then in a couple months, an R senator in a state with a D governor chokes on a chicken bone, and we get 52.
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Some of those states have been rigged to prevent party changes or call for very fast special elections. NC?
https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1590714256537710593?s=46&t=3e2OaDhqhFnZoGDYxgskMQ
Bouzy has been pretty spot on, he’s a little D biased (he had OH leaning R but flipped it to D thinking Roe would push women over the top) but his data analysis seems to be too notch - never wavered from D Senate or Fetterman. Also this is the hopium thread
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My take right now is that nobody knows, but I think the modeling from the major outlets is overestimating R chances by a bit.
My guess is their models are over-valuing the FL data related to other states. We’re not just politically polarized, we’re regionally polarized. Districts that used to correlate may not anymore.
Edit: To be clear, I still think R’s are favored, but we have some equity here. PredictIt has moved to like 80/20 Rs. That seems reasonable to me.
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From 538:
ABC News is reporting that Democrat Yadira Caraveo is projected to win Colorado’s 8th Congressional District. This is a big upset — Caraveo had just a 9-in-100 chance of winning in our final House forecast. But Colorado really showed up for Democrats on Tuesday; Gov. Jared Polis won reelection by a punishing 17-point margin, Sen. Michael Bennet is winning by 11 and of course, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is locked in the race of her life in the 3rd District
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Dude’s name is Jesse Aaron Paul.
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As assassination attempts are clearly on the menu it seems daft to say they shouldn’t be discussed…
didn’t it also happen in 18?
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A post was merged into an existing topic: 2022 Midterm Elections (Abandon hope all ye who enter here) butnahhh. or maybe?
Wrong thread.
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Straight into my fucking veins please.
#BestCoast
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Isn’t the ideal # of seats for Dems 217?