I’m pretty good at betting elections, and I think the PI numbers are pretty sharp. Doesn’t make it a lock obviously, but we’re in a great position.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDweck/status/1590223233529548806?t=W7qLFRGWYOwJqxzZCiQHnQ&s=19
I’m not sorry if I got ponied because this gem is repost worthy.
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Do you want to pretend the Pelosi hammer attack never happened? This is something legitimately in the range of these fuckers. Acting like they would never violate the no-assassination norm is the same sort of complacency that eDems engage in. Maybe we should make it a policy to give them less credit.
It is a pretty good educated guess especially when we are heavily into the counting stage, imo. Went crazy for Trump in 2020 because Florida reported first and he outperformed there. Was a rational interpretation of the available data that turned out wrong.
Brown and Manchin aren’t on their radar.
The only reason they aren’t is incompetence.
Is the move for Dems (especially if we win AZ/NV) to full on make the GASEN runoff a referendum on abortion? It’s toxic af, brings women to the polls, Republicans have no answer, and if we win, maybe just maybe we’ll really nuke the filibuster to codify abortion rights.
He’s figured it out now, women just need to get married. This guy is such a bozo and is Mt Rushmore level of punchable faces.
https://twitter.com/cynicalzoomer/status/1590502986190839808
But on the nonviolent side, what do the interim appointment rules look like in NY if Biden appoints a couple key NY congresscritters to cabinet posts or ambassadorships or what have you?
I still don’t think it was a rational interpretation for anyone who follows politics as closely as we do. I mean, I was almost immediately on top of why it didn’t matter.
I do think it’s a pretty good hypothesis that political betting markets underestimate variance and overreact to small moves in results. There’s a lot of nuance that gets missed, too.
For example, I expect the Clark County mail-in vote margins to slowly diminish each day because Dem voters mail them in earlier usually. 68-32 was great, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go 67-33 then 66-34 etc. If that first dump was 65-35 it would be a good margin but it would need to hold. We can now afford for it to dip since we likely only need to average 65-66% to win.
I doubt the PI markets factor stuff like that in, I think the $850 betting caps keeps sharps from moving the numbers as much as they otherwise would.
I have not asked specifically, but I would bet that MrsWookie votes more left now than before we were married. That has more to do with the Republican party than with getting married, but I am pretty sure it’s true.
There are no interim appointments to the House. The replacement is whoever wins the next election, which may be a special election.
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I see. So we may just need Dank Brandon to make 4 appointments
I’m not sure but I think House seats sit vacant until the special election. A quick Google search didn’t answer the question for me.
If it’s 218-217 he may be able to make one and let the GOP fracture between McCarthy and the freedom caucus on the Speakership vote. Just pick the most winnable seat and run it back in a special election for control.
Could have something to do with no black president shoving his throbbing agenda down their throats.
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Maybe they should run on some sort of warped prima nocta rights?
Uncut hopium here
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1590542234583470081?s=46&t=dycZrP690o6TlFVJBYV6bQ
Not sure how long you’ve been married, but I think everyone sane votes more left than they did 10 years ago.
Press conference at Maricopa County elections this morning looked like this on TV:
And looked like this from the other side of the lobby. Just a massive amount of media people and all their equipment in the building today.
One thing I learned is that there were about 175K early ballots dropped off on election day in 2020 and it went up to 275K in 2022. That’s a big jump and a lot of work left to do. Not sure that was expected at all.
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