He had tweeted about a big data breach affecting pretty much every user in France. I think it happened like a year ago. Idk if that was the trigger but obviously can’t have people embarrassing Elon like that.
1 Like
Yeah human drivers are bad. But they’re terrible in relatively predictable ways.
I walk 20-30 miles/week, often at night now since it’s winter. I always make sure the car sees me at a light or stop sign before I commit myself to walking in front of it.
If a Tesla slows down, but then decides I’m a figment of its imagination after I’ve already committed to the crosswalk, that would suck.
1 Like
The odds of a Tesla slowing down and then speeding up again towards a pedestrian and hitting it are probably lower than the odds a serial killer in the car decided to mow you down for fun.
3 Likes
These videos don’t make me confident. I program computers for a living. I know how dumb they are.
And yet there are seemingly endless videos of teslas plowing into people and other cars.
3 Likes
As an owner: The car’s perception of the world is consistently terrible. It sees about 30% of the things which matter. I would never trust it to drive. Even without autopilot, its decision: there is danger – alert the driver --fail with false positives and false negatives often. In contrast my Subaru is almost never wrong and always has a good reason when it is.
Except for orange cones, Tesla never misses those. Whoever worked on orange cones nailed it.
7 Likes
And absolutely no videos of human caused car accidents.
I’m not sure what a good data source will be but if we can find I’ll bet. We would have to set the d-day maybe something like today 2025.
Well never mind. If you live in SF you can have the unique pleasure of being arrested (if you’re lucky) by a robot cop soon that’s capable of deadly force.
I really don’t think the world is ready to trade accidents caused by shitty drivers for accidents caused by software glitches.
Someone posted a good summary of this a while back. Driving is always going to present completely novel scenarios to the driver. Until we have AI that can actually reason, novel scenarios not explicitly programmed into self-driving software will be a problem.
I am not saying AI won’t cause accidents or even deaths. I am saying it is already at a point where it most likely causes less of them than the average human driver in good weather conditions.
Cyclists get mowed down by humans on a daily basis. People crash into trees all the time. People take incorrect turns, stop unexpectedly, lose control in turns, get distracted etc.
Suzzer example is AI slowing down and then not stopping which I haven’t seen. All the examples I know is the car not slowing down at all and I have that happen to me when I try to cross the road near my house all the time with stupid humans behind the wheel.
1 Like
I’m just not ready to accept “less Sklansky deaths get with the program.”
First, it’s Elon fucking Musk. But putting that aside, I can plan for bad driving. I’ve seen it my whole life and I can tailor my behavior to lower my personal risk. I have no idea how to account for “beta full self driving” which has a demonstrated history of causing cars to accelerate into humans or through red lights or whatever.
I don’t think you’re going to find any good data on this.
Another problem with the Sklansky deaths idea is that the really bad drivers are probably at the bottom of the list for buying a self-driving car. Tesla drivers are already probably 90th percentile-ish in terms of driving skill, attentiveness, lack of road rage, etc.
It’s going to be a long long time before we get all the truly shitty drunks/olds/teenagers/road ragers into self-driving cars.
4 Likes
Your idea that you can predict human road behaviour but can’t do the same for an AI driven car is just wrong. I have not seen an AI car do anything I haven’t seen a human do. A couple of years ago a car was slowing down for a red light and then speeded through it like it didn’t exist and crashed almost killing the pedestrian assuming the car would stop. Turns out the driver tried to pick up something he dropped. I actually think Tesla is the worse self driven car out there and Musk is stupid to push it this hard but it is not nearly as dangerous as people make it out to be when you compare it to humans. Its reaction speed alone will prevent a lot of accidents humans would not have been able to avoid.
2 Likes
Also, like, “in good weather, outside dense urban areas” is a pretty big qualifier!
That’s moving the goal post.
I am simply willing to bet that the self driving will result in less accidents per mile driven than human drivers.
There is nothing to plan for. It simply means there are cars on the road less accident prone than human drivers.
As I said he is clearly a moron but as far as I know he still has the lead in AI self driving.
Now if the bet is will telsa have the best AI self driving in 5 or 10 years I snap bet the no.
There’s no universe where Tesla is ahead of google for self driving.