didn’t it end with him being largely ignored too?
Very small sample size but there is a pretty obvious correlation between approval rating and reelection historically. Trump also had a low approval rating in 2020 and did not win reelection.
It also shows the huge power of incumbency. Only two of those, plus Trump have lost in the general. Yes it was the three with the lowest approval, and Biden clearly isn’t a great candidate but neither is Trump.
To add, I just think when it finally comes time to vote, so long as the economy is still doing ok, people are going to stick with Biden, even if they are not excited about it. The only other incumbents to lose were during bad economies/pandemic.
I tend to agree. I will be surprised if Trump wins once people start paying attention. If the election was today though I think Biden would be in big trouble. Honestly a coinflip or even Trump being a +200 dog to be president come November is going to be scary as hell.
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a) as you are well aware, the intense increase in negative partisanship means you are comparing apples to oranges by listing all these historical #s
b) it’s June?
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Agreed - but I think this is sort of a good thing as IMO Republicans have misplayed their hand with respect to the Hunter/senile scandal. The Comey stuff worked on Clinton since it was last minute, so the substance didn’t really matter.
For Biden, by election time, unless R’s can find some real dirt, everyone will have long forgotten about Hunter (at least everyone that was actually a persuadable vote). Not sure if R’s actually thought they could actually impeach Biden or were just blinded by the base and their desire to protect Trump, but I don’t think they could have handled this in a worse way.
Correct, despite rumors to the contrary, Joe is not senile enough to peak in March.
You all are nervous about the election? Great, that is exactly what Joe wants and needs. Excellent leadership by him.
I just posted that because I found it interesting. I dont think it is dispositive of any particular outcome in November. It was more to back up what I posted yesterday that Biden is historically unpopular and that usually unpopular presidents aren’t re-elected(duh). Even if you account for the ramp up in partisianship in 2024 Biden isn’t even really that popular amongst Democratic/left leaning voters.
Thankfully he is running against Trump so lots of people will hold their nose and vote for him again. But the margin in 2016, 2020 and most likely in 2024 will be razor thin and come down to a handful of states again. My original point in my first post yesterday was that it’s absurd to state, in March of 2024, that Trump cant win or that Biden is some mortal lock. Lots can and will happen in the next 7.5 months. The data today looks grim. But the data in November will likely be different one way or another.
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It ends with him being killed by an apple iirc
People are greatly overvaluing how much this might help Biden imo. I think it’s a net negative wrt to his re-election chances.
This is potentially/probably a different discussion, but the economy is definitely not doing ok for a very large fraction of this country. Polling on Biden’s handling on the economy is in the toilet.
(I’m not saying this is Biden’s fault, but the perception is clearly not great.)
This is more hopium, but I think this is another example of R’s shooting their load too early. Right now perception of the economy is a net negative for Biden, but if in 6 months things are still ok, I think the R attacks lose some of their steam.
Every R immediately says we are living through another Great Depression as soon as a D becomes President and half the Ds bemoan that their guy failed to usher in socialist paradise.
Rs openly weaponize the economy in elections and negative Nancies on our side had them the gun.
Biden passed Bernie’s wishlist from 2020 to 2022, the comrades on our side would do well to point out to their friends what changed in 2023 rather than falsely slandering Biden.
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There’s definitely something to the GOP (and media allies) prematurely ejaculating out their propaganda here.
They’ve primed the electorate to assume Joe will be dribbling applesauce down his chin throughout the campaign. Big mistake.
Also how people say they will react to something is very different than how than actually react when that thing happens. Seeing Trump at full insanity is going to be jarring for normie suburban types. He’s way way way crazier than they remember. Bonus points if lol law gets any of his criminal trials going in time.
Last election the media kept giving Trump endless free airtime and it was a disaster. This time they’re limiting that, which is good, but also obscures how badly he’s fallen apart over the last four years.
Would Trump be hurt by a live debate where his dementia is on full display while Biden sounds competent?
The debates ended poorly for Trump last time.
Once he is president again, however, he will be back on TV round the clock and everyone will see how far gone he is. Then he will really be up shit’s creek.
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she thinks she can win in 2028. she will eventually endorse him, but i dont think she wants to run with him.
This is sort of where I’m at. It’s as simple as “he lost last time, now he has a bunch of court proceedings against him, demographics should be on our side, he’ll probably do even worse this time.”
However please note that I am not saying Biden’s a lock. He could fall and break his hip, or whatever. And I will admit there are some worrying factors, such as some possible growing support for Trump in Latinx voters, which could pose problems for Nevada and AZ.
I also don’t really know what to make of the polls. However I do remember in 2016 that we all swore we’d never pay attention to polls again. That’s what I’m trying to do. It could be that Trumpies are much more comfortable being “out” these days; who knows.
At any rate I refuse to spend the next six months feeling terrified. I love the fact that small donors are being scared away from Trump; that seems like a great sign. I’m choosing to be optimistic, which is very unlike me.
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Everything WitchitaDM says in his last few posts is on point. I have been relatively bullish on Biden and think there may be slim value on him at +150, but at best this will be a down to the wire election. Close to a coin flip either way. It’s one thing to say he is a slight favorite, but if you think Biden is anywhere close to a lock you are misreading the world in which you live in a substantive way.