Biden is +143 on Bookmaker. Limit $20k.
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This is probably not a novel thought, but it strikes me that the uncertainty around the election with respect to betting is different than the uncertainty around a sporting event.
When a team is a -200 favorite in a sporting event, we think about it like if we could play the game 1000 times from the present point, that the favored team would win ~67% of the time. Because the relative strengths of the teams and how that translates to a win % is well understood, but the game itself contains volatility.
There probably isnāt all that much volatility in all the events that can take place from now until November that will have a material impact on the election. I mean, Trumpās approval rating barely budged throughout in insane 2020. I think if you could play the election out as few as 5 or 10 times from the current point and have the benefit of seeing the results, you could quickly converge to a correct betting line where Trump OR Biden are something like a 10 to 1 favorite. Meaning, one of them is almost certainly already a huge favorite. Itās just that we have a lot of uncertainty around handicapping it.
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This is where you are dangerously wrong. Fake optimism leads to complacency. Understanding risk is how action is taken.
Your false hope is the actual poison pill.
lol
Strong argument.
My whole thesis is that you are saying Trump is stronger than 2020 today. That is what youāre saying, correct? If so, that is absurdā¦absurd. Thatās what Iām trying to get through to you. Trump is not stronger than in 2020. That is absurd.
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In 2020, Trump had just mangled the response to his presidencyās greatest crisis. People were scared and could hardly leave their homes. The economy was in the shitter. Unemployment was high. Trump nearly died of covid himself. And Biden just barely won.
But now, people have the memories of goldfish, and Trumpās once again nearly the cult of personality he was in 2016, and the media wonāt stop talking about how Biden is old and every bit of news about the economy is bad news, no matter how good. Trump is literally asking people to remember if they are better off than they were four years ago because enough of them have forgotten how bad it was.
Seems like youāre comparing Trump 2024 to Trump 2016, and yeah, sure, heās weaker now than 2016, but heās not as weak as he was in 2020, because heād really, really, really fucked up 2020.
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I can see how someone might believe Trump is stronger relative to Biden today vs 2020.
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Disagree. Heās way weaker now because he has no power. He was in office last time. They tried to make the building blocks for him to āwinā in a similar scenario in 2022 and failed miserably. Trump, when his campaign will be fully covered over the summertime, is going to remind everyone who hates him why they hate him and there will be no problems with activation of voters due to Roe v. Wade being overturned. I just donāt get the level of pessimism I see here. Sure Trump could hit a miracle whatever, but all this ādown on Joeā stuff is largely coming from the Democrats who for effing sure arenāt gonna vote for Trump in November. The only hope Trump has is if 25 million former Biden voters stay home. Weāre a million miles from the election, too, and the GOP can do nothing but shoot themselves in the foot.
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Boomer EDems see everything as fine. Shocking I tell you.
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Who are you calling a Boomer EDem?
The other thing to note here is that in the middle of Covid more people voted than in any other election in U.S. history. People who stood in long lines to vote, probably into the thousands or 10s of thousands likely died of Covid to make sure Trump couldnāt win. I was willing to stand in a long line and die to cast my vote to get that f***er out of office and I know many others were too.
I grew up in Weatherford TX.
Started thinking about whether they actually have sex anymore, then my mind screamed in abject terror, so now Iām sharing this with all of you so you can have the same experience.
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No way they have sex anymore. Doubt they even spend time together aside from obligatory public appearances.
These odds arenāt factoring in the possibility that Trump wakes up one morning to find himself transformed into a giant insect
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I was west Fort Worth
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I donāt think Trump is stronger per se, but still leads a cult of moron devotees, and EVERYONE hates old senile ass Biden way fucking more than 2020. Way more. Way way way more.
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