I do think Dems should run on “haha look at this pathetic loser” instead of “do you idiots understand what he’s going to do.” It just works better.
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Cool, they can also stay at home, vote for the Libertarian party or write in Mitt Romney.
Y’all have been freaking out about a tiny # of Muslims not voting Biden and then turn around and handwave away Trump’s last VP and the R primary runner up not endorsing him.
Rs strategy in national elections presupposes a popular vote whopping that is overcome by a perfectly located coalition that allows them to squeak out an electoral colllege victory if things break exactly right. If that coalition starts fighting amongst themselves even a little then they are done for. Rs don’t have a vote to spare.
I don’t know, man. I like hopium as much as the next bro, but I am not confident at all that Biden ships this.
We’re the same age. What area did you grow up in?
It really isn’t. Now matter how popular he is vs. 2016 (what are you even talking about here?) he is not not more popular than he was in 2020. It’s absurd to think otherwise. I’ll give you a little anecdote. At a casino I occasionally go to, there was some late 70s guy who was still wearing a red MAGA hat in 2021 once it was moderately safe to go back in casinos. He wore it all the time and it took a lot for me not to talk s*** to him, but I never forgot his face. I’ve seen him twice since then, once very recently. He no longer wears that MAGA hat. That’s Trump’s target audience, and he’s lost a lot of them. The MAGA hat wearer post-2020, post Jan 6 tells you all you need to know about them. When they’re done trolling, they know there’s nothing left in the tank.
You’re again making the case that Trump is stronger than he was in 2020. He is not. 81 million people voted for a man who could not win any other presidential election other than against Trump (he likely would not have won in 2016 vs. Trump no matter what people think). One of the least inspiring candidates of our lifetime because of how much people hated Trump and how much they just wanted to go with someone they ‘know’ in Joe led to the most votes in the country’s history. People are going to be even more activated by the time the election rolls around. Will Biden get 81 million votes? Probably not, but Trump’s not gonna get anywhere near 74 million unless Biden gets 90 million.
It’s amazing to me how much doomcasting has been on this site since 2018 before the midterms, and it’s never gone as bad, not even once, as what this site predicted. It’s ok to be wrong. People are wrong all the time. No one is excluded. Not even Joe Biden.
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I think Biden might lose because a lot on the left won’t vote for him because of Israel/Gaza. You know, because Trump the humanitarian will be so much better.
What betting sites? Predictit has them even, with Dems slight favorite to win.
How do you access ‘This Day In History’ for other days? This is past Super Tuesday, so it’s not relevant to the point I was making even though I wasn’t particular about the exact date I was describing. I was meaning more late February early March 2020. Many things had happened that probably put Biden in the lead by then.
Things that I think will help Trump this time around:
The lower reach of his Truth account compared to Twitter. Particularly MSM not specifically on the campaign beat and normies not encountering his Truths. It was pretty common for his supporters to say his biggest drawback was his Tweets. They don’t even have to take his phone away, no one but the Trumpists is on Truth.
Putting some distance between himself and his failures with COVID and the Wall. Allows for retconing and memory holeing how he handled those.
Less helpful, but somewhat: Elon and Gaza. Gaza will probably fade as an issue, but that’s up to the Israelis.
You can get Biden at +150 on Bovada right now.
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Things have gone pretty badly since 2018 imo. Roe v. Wade is gone. The SC is a mess for the rest of our lives. Covid killed 1m+ in the US. Trump is currently the favorite to be president. The Republicans continue to trend towards open fascism and the Dems have absolutely no answer for it. Israel/Gaza, Ukraine/Russia. There has been basically zero global progress on climate change. Trump to date has faced zero consequence after a literal coup attempt. I could go on and on.
In short the pessimists have been right way more than the optimists and I don’t think that is debatable.
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Where?
+150 at bovada.
What are the limits ?
I was worried that Biden’s age would be come the emails of this cycle, but the State of the Union seems to have helped with that.
Yes but those are not things that were voted for. Abortion rights crushed in Ohio and other places, republican « red wave » averted etc etc. I am not saying it’s a lock either way, but I’m a little bit lol polls these days especially this far out.
No doubt. If I had to bet today I would bet Biden. I’m just saying there aren’t many metrics you can point to that favor Biden today. A lot can and will change over the next 7.5 months though.
I wrote a long post disagreeing with you point by point but who even cares? It’s not worth it. Doomcasting is one of the biggest wastes of time any person can have on this earth.
That will be forgotten in a few weeks tops.