It’s getting more and more difficult to find a path forward for DeSantis at this point.
I’m sure one exists, but he’s failed so badly these past two months if he’s actually running.
The fact he couldn’t see he had to go on offense from the start is basically disqualifying because it shows such a fundamental misunderstanding of how GOP politics work. He got high on his own supply talking to WSJ types assuming trump would nuke himself. Not gonna happen. Their shot was 1/7 and they blew it.
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I think we’re way way too far out to be counting out Desantis at this point. The narrative in 2016, and one I think is mostly true, is that Trump never had majority support, but because he was running in a crowded field with winner take all primaries, he had an easier path to victory.
Trump is the favorite, but we are still a ways a way from actual campaigning/debates, and if Desantis can appeal to Trump voters while convincing them that Trump, while great, is aging and unable to beat Joe Biden, that’s his path. But I agree with Riverman, the plan of just sitting back and letting Trump trip over his own dick doesn’t work. You’ll have to hold your own fascist rallies.
People always read waaaaaaay too much into preseason polls.
Trump is actually polling over 50% at this point though. Not just the leader in a crowded field with 30% or whatever (like Trump in 2016 or Sanders in 2020). Trump voters are basically cult members and it would be pretty surprising to see them jump ship for LOL Desantis barring something unexpected happening.
Obv a different climate now but this popped up on my feed this morning.
https://twitter.com/patrickruffini/status/1640113891924406272?s=46&t=fCaNk_bHwq-gDJnJcGvwYw
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Yeah. Virtually all the Republicans, even those who didn’t support Trump initially, eventually drank the Kool-aid. That’s why people like Liz McCain, Kinzinger and Mitt Romney were total canaries in the coal mine. When they tried to speak truth, nobody clapped. DeSantis’ claim to fame is that he’s Trumpy without being Trump, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to be worth much until Trump is dead or too incapacitated to be their man.
the thing about trmp is that he always self destructs. he’s going to yell how he’s perfect anyway, but he is just about the dictionary definition of self sabotage
2000’s era Giuliani really was perfectly made for the for that age of post-9/11 fascist hysteria, it’s quite surprising that he never went anywhere nationally.
It’s surprising he never went anywhere nationally, but its also crazy to think that melting hair four seasons hand in pants Giuliani was once a favorite to be the R presidential nominee. His fall from favor is spectacular.
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I know it’s early, but when was the last time a front-runner fell this hard and rebounded enough to win?
(No, Biden getting stomped in NH in 2020 doesn’t count.)
The other lesson to take away from that is that people have a powerful instinct to rally behind a leader, even an objectively terrible one, when they’re scared. W was perceived as an imbecile at the time and his approval rating hit an all time high right after 9/11. So many people want to believe.
By the time Rudy went national, he has some residual 9/11 halo effect but by 2007 people weren’t really scared anymore. The post 9/11 neocon failed liberation of Iraq had changed a lot of the post 9/11 public sentiment from Rah Rah Bomb Brown People to Get Us The Fuck Out Of There, I Need Health Care.
Oh good you’re back to your old self
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Possibly John Mccain? People were making fun of him for sticking around after falling off in mid-2007
What I’m saying is, the crimes he committed may be more egregious and involve more people than any of us thought
Look. I am a basket case from this. I want this orange painted cretin and all his accomplices held accountable so bad that it’s fucking up my mental health. I wake up every day to see if there’s news and check my phone periodically throughout the day. I can’t wait until this is over one way or the other. Even if he gets off scot free. I need closure already
Feel the same way
Part of the problem here is that the “scot free” option isn’t gonna be from him getting indicted multiple times and then fully acquitted or anything that really ends it in any definitive way. It’s gonna be from 11 more of these stupid teases about something finally happening and then the news just slowly disappearing into the ether, where like a year later you happen to remember it and think to yourself “oh I guess nothing ever happened with that”. It’s not gonna feel like real closure until he runs the clock out by dying.
And I’m not completely aligned with team WAAF here, I’m closer to your side where I think serious shit going down against Trump is in the realm of possibilities. But I’m talking about the ~30% range at best.
Co-sign
I’d consider serious shit going down against Trump being either jail/prison time, 9 figure fines, and/or being barred from holding public office. Outside of that, anything he’s hit with is toothless. I’d put those at sub 1% odds.
Yeah we’re drawing live to multiple indictments leading to no convictions. But the biggest hit for him there is it’s a distraction from the campaign and gives ammo for his primary opponents to use against him, although they have to walk a fine line there.
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