Neither do I because I think you’re crazy. Here’s the thing. I’m not trying to bet against myself or someone who thinks like I do. I’m trying to bet against someone who holds the opposite view.
You think it’s “very likely”
So, even money seems like a great deal for you. If you don’t like that, feel free to walk back the “very likely” part of above.
Would you agree to one of each? One bet that a trial starts and one on a guilty verdict, both at even money?
I don’t think the start of trials is important or relevant. All I really care about is consequences. But failing that a conviction is the next closest thing. I’m very confident that won’t happen by 11/5. If you think it is very likely, then sounds like a perfect opportunity for a wager.
Consequences are subjective. I’m betting on what I know (or think I know) about how the judicial system works. I think he’ll be found guilty of a crime by Nov 5, 2024. I know I can get much better odds elsewhere, but since I said “very likely” I’ll bet that bet at even money one time only with you
Let me know the amount you’d like
Settlement via paypal?
How does $500 sound?
Edit: Confirming that “found guilty of a crime” = guilty verdict
That’s fine
That’s fine
I’m honestly not sure about this. Maybe a lawyer can weigh in. If he pleads guilty even under a plea deal I think I should win as long as it results in a conviction ??
That’s fine. You can have guilty plea too. I guess I could see him pleading on some bullshit misdemeanor financial crime. I didn’t intend to include a plea when I made the offier, but it’s OK. You can have it.
Booked?
Booked
Fwiw, this is the lowest EV Trump bet I’ve made yet
Good luck, man. I’ll be happy to pay this one off too. Even if it is a bullshit misdemeanor plea.
If you or anyone else are interested in some of my other emotional hedges, I’ve got a offer out in the NFL thread.
lol I’ll check out the NFL thread. I try not to make emotional bets, but I’d be lying if I said I don’t have some extreme apprehension about what happens if this guy wins a 2nd term. I still say the court system gets it done in one of these cases before the general. And then, even though he won’t lose a single member of his base, I do think it’ll be enough to cost him the election barring anything catastrophic happened for team Biden and the Democrats (which also is non zero)
I’m taking the Ravens next week. Moneyline, vig free. Let me know if interested.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1740549760606761385?t=gq4WVL91rucokXGQy9l9_A&s=19
Trump should come back with HE DID NOTHING WRONG and wouldn’t accept birdbrain’s pardon.
Follow up for Haley. Would she pardon Biden or bother to investigate the “crimes” that all the Republicans say he committed.
Also, Trump is 77. She’s just going to let him rot for three years?
Someone should ask if it’s ok for a 79-year-old man to sit in jail. No? 78? 77? Keep going like in The Price is Right clock game.
Who’s the worst 80-year-old man currently sitting in federal prison?
Lol and the crowd starts screaming at her to say higher and lower numbers