I can’t tell if you think this means they are going to win or lose.
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I think that Republicans will get slaughtered. Don’t see any reason why Trump should improve upon 2020 numbers.
I mean Trump almost won in 2020
Are we talking just the Trump/Biden matchup or do you actually think they’ll hold the senate?
I honestly don’t see Trump winning in 2024.
I mean his main electoral base is dying off and they’re being replaced by a demographic that mostly hates him.
SSCs all over the place in this thread.
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I definitely wouldn’t predict that he wins, but the countervailing forces are:
- Cheating.
- The deplorable propaganda machine is relentless and is attracting fresh blood constantly. It is a mistake to underestimate the extent to which social media is enabling the brainwashing of groups other than old white boomers. There are a lot of young Trumpers / fascists, and they are more organized about voting than liberal young people. The intensity of deplorable conservative propganda among hispanic and latino voting groups is very underestimated. Hate is attractive to a lot of people.
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Don’t forget the economy
But he didn’t. And it’s absurd that he’s using this political prosecution defense when he lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, along with dismal results for his party in 2018 and 2022. It’s like how is that narrative not immediately put to rest?
Because his followers are stupid.
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2016: 18-29 year old whites - Trump 47%, Clinton 43%
2020: 18-29 year old whites - Trump 53%, Biden 44%
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What does that have to do with my point? Xia said
I think that Republicans will get slaughtered. Don’t see any reason why Trump should improve upon 2020 numbers.
And I said well he barely lost. Like if the weather was different he could have won. There doesn’t have to be a reason. It was just a few tens of thousands of votes.
link please?
I’m immensely skeptical of the Dems ever doing anything other than losing, but an election vs. Trump while he’s mired in massive federal lawsuits seems impossible for them to fuck up. Maybe Biden fondling children on national television would do it.
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How many whites in that age range compared to non White and what’s dem % on the nonwhite
Where does sniffing kids hair fall on the fondling kids scale? Cause that’s clearly in his on camera antics range.
Hasn’t hurt his polling numbers yet 
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Biden doing something blatantly, iconically senile in the next 16 months would make it 50/50 at best, like if he showed up to a foreign policy summit with applesauce on his tie asking where his first wife was. Or perhaps an accumulation of undeniable, though not-catastrophic senior moments that convinces enough independents that he’s not there anymore. If that doesn’t happen I think he’s a 7:2 favorite against orange. These odds include other problems like bad economy, bleeding support to 3rd party candidates, etc… These things will have an affect but I think he remains a relatively strong favorite.
Trump drawing very live to a massive loss, but most likely outcome is a sickeningly close election decided by turnout in Philadelphia/Wayne county etc. Its going to be a terrible year.
Just took it from Wikipedia
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