Who said anything about being unwilling? I didn’t realize there was some sort of offer available. Give me some terms and maybe we can make this happen.
Edit: I just read the rest of the thread and I saw Grue’s bet. I’ll take his side of that one as well. How much additional action you want on that?
Not over this issue, but this is a place where conflict between states could get interesting. Like if a kid from Florida or Texas comes to California for gender-affirming treatment and FL or TX tries to charge and extradite the doctor.
He’s not getting anything. It’s been 7 years.
Will he or won’t he be indicted, jailed, executed, whatever misses the point that his losing a primary to DeSantis and being too big a laughingstock to mount any kind of legitimate third party challenge would be worse than a billion criminal convictions for Trump.
Where were you in September when grue and I made our first bet? I’m much less certain about a federal indictment but will take another $100 if you’d like, on the one we just made. If you want to get in on the September 6th bet (which is ANY indictment whatsoever in any jurisdiction) I’ll take as much as you can eat on that (within reason up to say, $5k?)
I also really think that foreperson hurt chances for indictment in GA, but hopefully not as much as I’m afraid she might have
Republicans would have to band together and run ONLY DeSantis in order for him to win. I think if even a 3rd candidate runs in the primary, it gives Trump the nomination. And if there are more than 3, forget about it. Trump wins easily
some states like connecticut have already passed laws basically saying they wont extradite for abortion and i think they clipped on gender affirming care to that as well.
but i agree it would be interesting to see a fight about it.
It is definitely very interesting, especially when you consider the current SCOTUS and Trump/DeSantis POTUS. The constitution says
A Person charged in any State with Treason, Felony, or other Crime, who shall flee from Justice, and be found in another State, shall on Demand of the executive Authority of the State from which he fled, be delivered up, to be removed to the State having Jurisdiction of the Crime.
From Extradition Clause - Wikipedia
According to a book review in The New York Times in January 2015:
The Northwest Ordinance of July 1787 held that slaves “may be lawfully reclaimed” from free states and territories, and soon after, a fugitive slave clause — Article IV, Section 2 — was woven into the Constitution at the insistence of the Southern delegates, leading South Carolina’s Charles Cotesworth Pinckney to boast, “We have obtained a right to recover our slaves in whatever part of America they may take refuge, which is a right we had not before.”[2]
The meaning of the Extradition Clause was first tested before the Supreme Court in the case of Kentucky v. Dennison (1861). The case involved a man named Willis Lago who was wanted in Kentucky for helping a slave girl escape. He had fled to Ohio, where the governor, William Dennison, Jr., refused to extradite him back to Kentucky. In this case, the court ruled that, while it was the duty of a governor to return a fugitive to the state where the crime was committed, a governor could not be compelled through a writ of mandamus to do so.
Puerto Rico v. Branstad [edit]
Main article: Puerto Rico v. Branstad
In 1987, the court reversed its decision under Dennison . The case involved an Iowan, Ronald Calder, who struck a married couple near Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. The husband survived but the wife, who was eight months pregnant, did not. Following the incident, Calder was charged with murder and let out on bail. While on bail, Ronald Calder fled to his home-state of Iowa. In May 1981, the Governor of Puerto Rico submitted a request to the Governor of Iowa for the extradition of Ronald Calder to face the murder charges. The Governor of Iowa refused the request, and the Governor of Puerto Rico filed a petition for a writ of mandamus in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Iowa. The Court rejected it, ruling that, under Kentucky v. Dennison , the Governor of Iowa was not obligated to return Calder. The United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit affirmed. The Supreme Court, overruling its existing precedent, reversed, ruling unanimously that the Federal Courts did indeed have the power to enforce a writ of mandamus and that Kentucky v. Dennison was outdated.
Definitely seems to me to be the kind of area where armed conflict between states or between a state and the federal government could occur.
You forgot WGH
Booked for $100 for the Feb 22 Grue bet, same terms. Quote to confirm.
Can you give me the details on the other bet? I’ll probably take some action there as well.
Confirmed provided that the full deadline is Feb 22, 2024
Our original bet was any indictment or arrest of Donald J Trump by any jurisdiction on or before midnight September 6th, 2023. We made the bet on 9/6/22, so you’d be getting a much better deal in terms of time frame. Lmk if you want this and for how much. Here is the link to the original wager:
Booked.
Not sure about the other one. Lemme think about it. The percentages I posted above were for federal. If it’s some state/local/foreign government indicts, Trump just tells them to fuck off , which is what he always does. (although I would love if DeSantis extradited him). I’ll @ you if I want to take it and at that point you can decide if you are still interested.
Fair enough
Wait… You honestly think if/when Willis or Bragg indict, that Trump just ignores it and nothing happens? lol you guys are ascribing super powers to this man he doesn’t possess. Although, it would be fun to watch him pit DeSantis against his MAGA base by daring him to extradite. It would also be fun to watch him campaign having to avoid all states with a Democratic governor. Better yet, getting elected president and any time he enters such a state there would be a non zero chance a POTUS gets extradited. What a fun country that will be to live in! lol. Alas, I think you guys are afflicted with a level of TDS I didn’t even know existed. It’s why I’m having a hard time taking some of you seriously
If you lose the bet, do you think you will change your assessment of the probability of indictment or will you just think they’re acting slower than expected?
Pretty much. No conviction for sure. If you wanna put 5K on that, let me know.
Nope, that’s his exact super power.
If the “consequence” is that he can’t set foot in a blue state, who gives a fuck. The dude is perfectly happy at Mar-a-Lago cheating at golf and eating well-done steaks. Moreover, no blue state governor is gonna extradite the GOP front runner, because they still follow norms and shit. At heart they’re all a bunch of Merrick Garlands.
What are the chances that MAGA idiots riot if a blue state governor has Trump arrested?
They aren’t rioting just like we aren’t rioting
Can I be the charity?
Y’all can also use me as the escrow. You both shoot me a hundo, and next year I give the winner one hundo, keeping the other
