Probably not looking forward to the 2-3% of this forum that will dunk all over her and refuse to ever forgive or forget.
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You don’t have to do this, Joe.
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Yeah Pete dropping out 48 hours before Super Tuesday is such an obviously shitty trick from a Bernie fans point of view, but it must be a real kick in the nuts for the grassroots campaigners like skydiver who were doing serious work for a cause they believed in.
I hope you’re ok skydiver. Huge respect for the effort you put in to this, the world needs more people like you and I hope this experience doesn’t cause you to stop participating.
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Trump is going to actually win debates lol
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I still don’t think it’s clear the consolidation hurts Bernie significantly. I get why party insider types think it does, but that doesn’t mean it’s true.
Voters are complete idiots. They don’t vote based on where candidates are on the ideological spectrum. Biden and Bloomberg are fishing from the same pond of low info boomer morons - if Bloomberg dropped out I’d be worried. But I’ve seen nothing to suggest Pete/Klob voters will go disproportionately to Joe. Similarly, its not clear to me Warren voters go disproportionately to Bernie.
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Is Warren staying in on the hope that she can out survive corona vs Bernie/Biden?
That’s not why people think it hurts Bernie, what’s more important - especially for Super Tuesday in California and Texas, is getting other candidates over the viability threshold. Numerous people are polling in the 13-17% range and 15% is the threshold, Pete dropping may get most or all of them over the line, which absolutely destroys Bernie’s delegate haul.
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If it consolidates down to her, Biden and Bernie, she’ll probably get a decent number of delegates and can possibly play kingmaker at the convention or become the unity candidate.
She could also be hoping she scoops up a disproportionate amount as other candidates drop out, or that she can crush the debates and boost her polling and turn it into a completely wide open race down the stretch heading into the convention.
Or she’s pissed at Bernie.
I mostly think she wants to do some horsetrading on the convention floor and trade in her delegates for favors.
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If Biden/Bernie are going to be in crowds all day long, the chance of them catching the corona virus and dying has to be fairly high.
Given Pete/Klob both are endorsing Biden today I think we can safely presume he’ll get more than Bernie of those voters. Klob voters outside of MN had bailed already though.
Bernie should get more of Warren voters than Biden, but those earlier polls that had that as a huge margin had Pete/Klob getting a bunch of them which obviously is zero now.
You are both missing the point of consolidation, it’s the $$$$$ stupid.
The donor class was paralyzed because they did not want to waste their money spreading it around inefficiently on a bunch of 10-20% candidates that are fighting each other, and attacking Bernie head on would make them look like self-interested scumbags (note that this didn’t stop the mainstream media).
Now they can funnel all their dirty money through Joe, both propping Joe up and helping Joe attack Bernie. Combined with the corrupt corporate media, what you can expect to see on MSNBC/CNN/etc for the next several months is 90% of news host praising Joe/calling Bernie a communist… with commercial breaks saying the same thing. Not to mention 80% of D Senators/House members saying the same thing to their constituents in slightly subtler terms.
Bernie won’t even get the Trump hack of having all his rallies aired… this will truly be a battle of David versus Goliath… can you chip in $27 to support the revolution, friend?
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I think the difference is most keenly felt in those areas where candidates are hovering around the viability threshold (eg California). Even if these votes split evenly between Bernie/Biden/Bloomberg going from 14-18% is worth a lot more than going from 43-47.
Pete and Amy dropping out help Bloomberg meet the threshold and every Bloomberg delegate is a Never-Bernie delegate.
Ah, wasn’t thinking about viability. You guys are right.
what a difference a week makes for Biden, and what a bizarre thing for Biden to underperform the first three states, and on the basis of just one, now everyone’s moving to vote for him.
That and Pete beat Warren in all 4 of the early states and yet he’s the one who dropped.
You’ve got to think they’re 60-80% to catch it, and the mortality rate for 70-79 is like 8% but theirs is probably more like 2%. I assume they’ll have a doctor traveling with the campaign and aides making sure they’re constantly hydrated, washing/sanitizing their hands and face, probably taking antivirals preventatively, etc… If they show any symptoms they’ll be immediately treated.
If they haven’t already, they’ll probably stop doing rope lines very soon, or make everyone in the rope line sanitize their hands right before they shake.