Yes. The 83% number was for May, a few months ago. Taking it at face value, my thinking was that numbers have continued to rise rapidly since then despite a large majority of the population having acquired antibodies. The concept of herd immunity doesn’t seem to have much practical value if that’s the case.
They do say their sample may not be representative of the US population as a whole. Does that devalue the estimate so much that it’s useless? I don’t think so. Clearly they don’t.
The vaccines are still working tremendously well, so it’s a bit silly to say herd immunity isn’t a thing, although we may not be getting to 80%+ the USA#1.
A 1 out of 2500 chance of dying instead of a 1 out of 50 is good enough for me. Or something like that.
Vaccines are working. People who have had COVID and recovered have also acquired some immunity. 83% is the estimate of people with antibodies 3 months ago. But the numbers of sick have continued to go up since then. We don’t know if they’ll level off anytime soon. Maybe my comment, which I did not mean to attribute to the authors of the study, is careless and technically wrong. Oh well.
The whole thing was confusing because the guys tweet was confusing. He started talking about delta R0 responding to a pre delta study. Digging into the twitter thread just turns out that is his take, not implausible but not based on a study.
My m-in-l got a booster today and my mom is getting one tomorrow.
Alright went and double checked and no, this still doesn’t make sense. There’s no data to support the conclusion that delta is spreading more in vaccinated people than alpha in unvaccinated. This would require exponential growth in vaccinated people.
That chart is incredible. So simple to understand, so nearly perfect in its linearity. Assuming the data are correct, it should be one of the defining documents of the entire pandemic.
And it doesn’t even include Florida! (Or Nebraska)
The real hot take off this graph is that each bar is probably heavily biased towards the red. Even in the lower death rate counties, the deaths likely over represent that county’s Trumpers.
That’s amazing. If COVID keeps eating away at their constituency, one wonders if we may eventually see a great political realignment such that The GOP becomes the anti-disease party.
Lol
The indications are that the booster does help vs delta even though it’s the same sequence vaccine as before.
To soon to tell if immunity with booster will wane.
I want to get a booster primarily to avoid being a spreader in case I get a breakthrough. Also I am traveling a fair bit and I also have plans to be in a crowd in December (if Genesis doesn’t cancel).
I don’t think we know the timeline for a delta targeted vaccine.
If low risk profile, might be worth waiting and just get the Delta booster some time in 2022?
(Setting aside the debate about boosters vs initial doses for less advantaged countries).
I love your commitment to the bit.
Am I correct that the situation seems to be
The failure of the COVAX program is one big thing no one here has talked about much.
Negative PCR test. Body soreness was gone this morning but still quite congested. I guess I just have a regular cold which seems weird.
