COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

fuck, i used to like john smoltz.

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Whoopsies!

Grown ass man (probably in his 60s but looks like shit and is overweight) at one of my poker tables tonight. His shirt said ā€œmasks stop covid like a diaper stops a fartā€ in some childish wingding font. Itā€™s just mind boggling to see how some people handle themselves in public.

Meanwhile, I just scheduled my third Moderna shot for next Sunday. Hoping it doesnā€™t knock me out as hard as round 2 did.

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Health Nerd guy is wrong. You cannot reasonably make that argument. Clincal trials are negative. End of story.

Kyle is advancing a strawman wrt ā€˜it doesnā€™t workā€™. Saying something is possible is the lowest of low bars.

Those tweets, charitably interpreted, are not applicable to the general discussions around ivermectin.

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Would love a report on how the third shor affects you

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Where can I get the horse paste? Dr Ozā€™s site? That and fish tank cleaner battling it out down the stretch for substance of the year. Iā€™m rooting for Clorox to make a late surge.

Looks like restrictions are continuing to loosen in the Czech Republic.

No more restrictions on attendance on sporting, cultural and theatrical events (though crowd members will need to prove vaccination, provide negative covid test less than 72 hours old or proof of overcoming covid in past 180 days). Now you can sit six to a table at a restaurant. Of course that has never been enforced. Iā€™ve regularly sat at well over a dozen at a table at restaurants and bars.

Reality is that things have pretty much stayed the same since the beginning of June. Thereā€™s a slight increase in the percentage of positive tests (7-day average is finally above 1.5%). Students are back in school today for the first time since the end of June and got tested for covid earlier this morning. Thatā€™s likely to make things a bit worse but probably not bad enough to close schools.

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Here was my experience. Some of you may recall I was in the Pfizer trial and received my 2 shots in August and September of 2020. Because of that, I was invited to the Pfizer booster trial and received my third shot in late July. It was 50/50 to be a placebo, but based on my reaction Iā€™m sure it was the real thing. That said, my reaction to the third shot was actually much less than my reaction to the first two. Just a sore arm for a couple days and some minor body aches that went away with ibuprofen. The original 2 shots gave me a low fever and kept me in bed for a day. I did make sure to hydrate well before the third shot so maybe that helped, but who knows.

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A new coronavirus variant named Mu has been designated a variant of interest by the World Health Organization (WHO), PA Media reports. Mu, or B.1.621, was first identified in Colombia and cases have been recorded in South America and Europe.

The WHOā€™s weekly bulletin on the pandemic said the variant has mutations suggesting it could be more resistant to vaccines, as was the case with Beta, but that more studies would be needed to examine this further.

Yes but what if Mu and Lambda cross breed?

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Seriously actual Darwinism in action. Hard to deny evolution these days.

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It occurred to me that everyone I know recently who has been pozzed was diagnosed via an at-home rapid test. I highly doubt these people are reporting it to their local health departments.

Could we be in a phase where at-home tests are undermining the reliability of caseload stats? Not sure if this has been discussed already, sorry if so.

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They didnā€™t tell you if it was placebo or not yet? Jeez

Huge mask-promotion randomized trial in Bangladesh. N = 600 villages, 342,000 adults. There were campaigns about proper mask-wearing in some villages and not others. Proper mask-wearing was observed at 13% in control villages and 42% in villages where campaigns took place. Risk reduction for symptomatic COVID seroprevalence was 9.3% in the mask-wearing villages.

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Saw this, too. On one hand, it doesnā€™t seem terribly surprising. On the other hand, it looks like this can be a nice reference for the ā€œBUT THEREā€™S NO RANDOM TRIAL SHOWING THAT MASKS WORKā€ idiots at local school board meetings.

Also worth noting that surgical masks were measurably better than cloth masks at reducing infection.

I keep wondering why the antivaxxers donā€™t all just make fake cards. Itā€™s trivially easy.

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Good lord, if you are going to fake a vaccine card at least go for the Fizer

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This isnā€™t a rct on masks though. Itā€™s a kind of rct on their mask education thing. Itā€™s not particularly well controlled either. I wouldnā€™t classify it as a rct after a quick read.

Disagree. They performed the following intervention on a randomized basis:

All intervention arms received free masks, information on the importance
of masking, role modeling by community leaders, and in-person reminders for 8 weeks. The control group did not receive any interventions.

They know that the intervention led to increased mask wearing among the treatment group:

The intervention increased proper mask-wearing from 13.3% in control villages (N=806,547 observations) to 42.3% in treatment villages (N=797,715 observations) (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.29 [0.27, 0.31]). This tripling of mask usage was sustained during the intervention period and two weeks after.

What makes you say this isnā€™t an RCT on masks? How would a ā€œtrueā€ RCT on masks differ from this approach?

Summary thread here:
https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1433049848153092097

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