COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

MrWookie · December 27, 2021, 11:26pm

Also, Johnny, I posted this tweet before:

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1469350555084546054

We have absolutely had posted ITT evidence of boosters reducing the overall risk of infection.

Watevs · December 27, 2021, 11:26pm

There is no one in the administration who can properly address this crisis because it is a hodgepodge of psychopaths whose single goal was to make sure that Bernie Sanders didn’t peel off one iota of power from that of capital

Coasterbrad · December 27, 2021, 11:47pm

Ugh this makes me so uneasy, as I get ready to head in to work because I got to pay for those student loans. I’m vaxxed, boosted, masked everywhere, and still treating covid like the serious threat it is while watching the vast majority of people party it up. I’m going to be pretty pissed when I catch this. Hope your MIL has an easy go of it.

Riverman · December 27, 2021, 11:54pm

So far just cold-like symptoms, though I’m a little nervous because she is moderately old and a lifelong heavy smoker.

Tilted · December 27, 2021, 11:58pm

Lay off the incessant bickering.

Melkerson · December 28, 2021, 12:01am

What lead you to this conclusion?

anon12304106 · December 28, 2021, 12:05am

Delta severity estimates Vs alpha and omicron estimates Vs delta. Still a lot of uncertainty in all of it.

Melkerson · December 28, 2021, 12:08am

Do you happen to have any handy links?

Chippa58 · December 28, 2021, 12:10am

Its a good thing Omicron is not as lethal (apparently) as the original or the world would be genuinely fucked. Incidentally, I’ve had cold symptoms since last Wednesday. Have been isolating but not willing to jump through hoops to get tested. Finally feels like I turned the corner today, and it feels like the duration of this may be sliightly shorter than a normal cold. I’m going to see if I can buy a test or get one tomorrow when I hit the pharmacy drive-through for a prescription.

Melkerson · December 28, 2021, 12:22am

If I understand LetsGambool correctly, Omicron is probably more lethal than Alpha (i.e., the original).

anon12304106 · December 28, 2021, 12:23am

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

This would have delta double hospitalization rate of alpha, although I wouldn’t take it as gospel. I’m skeptical we are going to find omicron half a severe as delta like for like when we have more months of data. Lot of uncertainty still, severity has been harder to get a handle on than transmissibility, and this is all fog of war.

The broader point is that I don’t really see this as a mutation to a less severe strain as much as a less severe lineage developing transmission advantages and immune evasion properties over delta and if I had to bet what “Omicron plus” might look like I don’t really think I’d bet the less severe side.

EDIT: alpha isn’t the original strain I don’t think, it is an early/first variant.

iron81 · December 28, 2021, 12:24am

Alpha is not the original, it’s the UK variant.

Melkerson · December 28, 2021, 12:30am

Yeah, you’re right. Sorry I forgot about that.

Melkerson · December 28, 2021, 12:31am

anon12304106:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

This would have delta double hospitalization rate of alpha, although I wouldn’t take it as gospel. I’m skeptical we are going to find omicron half a severe as delta like for like when we have more months of data. Lot of uncertainty still, severity has been harder to get a handle on than transmissibility, and this is all fog of war.

The broader point is that I don’t really see this as a mutation to a less severe strain as much as a less severe lineage developing transmission advantages and immune evasion properties over delta and if I had to bet what “Omicron plus” might look like I don’t really think I’d bet the less severe side.

EDIT: alpha isn’t the original strain I don’t think, it is an early/first variant.

Thanks for the link. I’ll read it later today.

anon12304106 · December 28, 2021, 12:32am

It is just one study wouldn’t take it as gospel. Have seen other lower numbers.

TheNewT50 · December 28, 2021, 12:42am

My WAG right now is that Omicron will eventually be thought of as a pandemic-within-a-pandemic, and the (plausibly) weak immunity it confers against Delta (or Delta+, god forbid) will cause Delta to slow burn in unvaxxed populations for a much longer time.

suzzer99 · December 28, 2021, 1:50am

Had to explain to my mom today that I didn’t want to go hang out at the house two of my aunts share, one of whom is sick but hasn’t gotten tested yet. Mom looked at me like I was trying to explain quantum mechanics, and I am now the bad guy.

Now my mom and stepdad aren’t home. Just out there wilding in the streets. Probably over at my stepdad’s ex’s house - the site of multiple pozzings.

Yes we take covid very seriously, unless it impinges on any social occasion in any tiny way, and then we’re not sure what covid even means. How do you say that again - coh - vid? Nope never heard of it.