I know somebody who’s husband is currently in a hospital in Boston with Covid (young, healthy, completed Pfizer vaxx schedule, not boosted yet - was scheduled to be this week) and she told me today Boston hospitals are almost at capacity today. How many weeks do you think we are out from the peak? I’m guessing ay least 3-6???
NYC now giving out $100 for people to get booster shots
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Seems like a reasonable assumption although still unknown. Sort of scary with the doubling time and lag. Im sort of assuming healthcare wont be generally available for part of January.
I think this is wrong as lately I’ve been hearing the exact opposite. Liberal people saying stuff like I don’t want to sound like I’m on Fox News but there’s no point in any lockdowns or precautions anymore. The vaccine and booster shots are readily available to anyone who wants them, so we all just need to live our lives and accept what comes with that.
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What a fucking amazing time to be alive, that we have to give out cash prizes to people to convince them not to fucking kill themselves.
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I don’t have a link, but I read some interesting speculation that Omicron’s observed growth advantage might be due to shorter generation times rather than a higher R0. (As an example, if Delta is able to infect two people over the course of a 4-day infectious period, while Omicron can infect the same number over a two-day period, Omicron will appear to have R of 4 if you calibrate using Delta’s generation time.) Perhaps this is consistent with the work showing that Omicron replicates insanely quickly in the upper airways? The upshot would be that Omicron epidemics would burn out earlier than expected, because total infections are driven by R, not by daily doubling rate.
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I don’t see how that doesn’t result in a true higher R0 for Omicron. But then again, I’m not very bright with the maths…
Think of it this way.
Imagine delta counting 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc, saying a new number every 2 seconds
Imagine omicron counts 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc, but says that number every second.
R0 for both is 2, but omicron will be at 16 after 5 seconds, delta will be between 4 and 8.
No idea if what bob is saying is true, but that’s the math I think.
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not really true, but not quite off the mark either. some companies have gone belly up because of jit logistics, while others pivoted away to survive. toyota story has been in the news recently. broadcom saw it early enough during the china trade war. amazon with all stock, to all jit, back to stocking. /shrug
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So for this to be true, omicron would probably have to make you sick faster so you have a shorter window of transmissibility while mildly ill or asymptomatic, correct?
Edit: I guess there are other mechanisms that could cause this too.
Headline makes it sound like some Ocean’s 11 shit
Stuff would be a little more expensive, but at least the drivers would not need to wear diapers.
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Thanks, but if that’s really how R0 works we need some new way of measuring things imo.
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take it up with exponential growth man, R0 matters way more at the end of the day because of bob said about it burning out faster.
biden speaking at WH…ramping up testing, new directive for schools to keep classrooms open if one kid tests positive but the other kids test negative
Yeah, for some reason he gives his presser at 3PM.
It should be that the vaccinated kids get to come back to class but the unvaccinated ones can stay home and do virtual. We need more vaccine incentives for kids and all school-aged kids are eligible now.
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Hmmm. I do not know the official epidimeological definitions/maths, but if both strain infect 4 others but one does it in 2 days vs 4 days, that’s interesting. It would INCREASE the value of social isolation. Better chance of cutting off the transmission chain.
I think the hard part is the background of Masking/distancing/vaxxing is changing. We have been in phase where vaxxed individuals have been masking/distancing less due to lack of apparent Delta transmission.
The virus is selected for based on the current conditions. Most recently fast and being able to pass via the vaxxed is the advantage that has selected for Omicron.
*hoping the shorter period of infectivity part is true, wondering how much of this is due to significant transmission via thr vaxxed that clear the virus faster vs something inherent in the virus. Cause if it’s still as long in the unvaxxed they are really fucked just in time for the holidays. Could be dropping like flies.
Looking at you Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins….
Thinking about it a bit more, you’d get basically the same effect if the period of infectiousness is the same in both length and intensity, but it happens sooner for Omicron. For example, if Delta typically infects two people between 48-96 hours of exposure, while Omicron infects two people between 24 and 72 hours after exposure. Not sure if that’s more or less biologically plausible.
lol at “if you are vaccinated, you don’t need to cancel your Christmas plans”. I’m sure the unvaccinated are watching his address with rapt attention, and will definitely heed his advice to not gather for the holidays to protect themselves and their families.
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