COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

There used to be. But I don’t think warfarin is really used as rat poison anymore.

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The key with rat poison is to rename it rat paste.

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They’re called, no joke, superwarfarins.

Have had one case with a kid who took some by accident. They were fine. Learning it was a super warfarin cracked me up when I called poison control. Turns out you can take more than you think!

What if you got your vax from abroad? I’ll be there for a while and it’d suck for them to not accept my vaccine proof.

50% of the UK’s adult population is boostered. That will skew your incoming data, time of peak, etc.
Hospitals not overwhelmed in SA because they were empty before Omicron hit, unlike the UK and US that are half full with Delta cases already.

Even the CDC have stated (ITT) it’s numbers are ‘off’ - might have counted a ‘few’ 2nd doses as first.

Has anyone ever read about original antigenic sin? I have no idea if this will apply to COVID or not, but man, if the people with the best immune protection to Omicron are the people who dodged both vaccination and previous infection, I will be mega-tilted.

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SAGE take is unlikely to be a major issue with SARS-COV-2, but yeah, this would be the real
worst timeline scenario. Seems unlikely from
what we know.

Yeah, this is a more eloquent way of putting what I was trying to say. It’s the tail wagging the dog, not the other way around. Deplorables aren’t listening to foxnews, foxnews is listening to the deplorables.

You should be ok:

It’s both. In addition to the dynamic you describe, there is also some pure addictive behavior going on. Exposure to conspiracy theories clearly pokes some brain chemistry that makes them seek out more conspiracy theories, especially when the conspiracy theories are delivered through the high engineered sociopathic social media channels specifically designed to send people down addictive rabbit holes.

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I keep reading about it from anti-vaxxers. Based on the fact that I only keep seeing it coming from anti-vaxxers, and nothing else, I will assume that it is bullshit as applied to Covid. I feel safe in that assumption based on my priors.

Key to that article is that they still provide protection against severe illness and death. AstraZeneca for example has not been reduced to “basically nothing” because of the t-cell immunity it generates. But yes, it looks like everyone is going to get this except for the mRNA boostered people in rich countries.

Had four old guys go at it last night at one of my poker tables. Literally screaming at each other. Two in their 80s and two in their 60s. The argument started over politics, with the two older guys calling Trump a “shithole president who ruined this country”. Eventually this turned to COVID, unsurprisingly. Again the older guys managed to hit every sane and logical talking point much to the amusement of the trumpers who were just so confident that the COVID numbers were completely inflated.

But then one of the idiots said “I will admit this though, I just got my first shot on Monday”. He got it because his school age kid got sick. Hadn’t before so that “all you idiots could be the guinea pigs. Never before has a vaccine been made that quickly, so theres no way I was getting it before.” I mean, clearly the guy is an idiot, and it took someone close to him getting sick to care, but maybe this upcomming massive wave will be enough to push a chunk of the holdouts over the line. Too little too late and all, but it’s something I guess.

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Yeah, I’m not sure why people keep dancing around this. Well, actually, I do know why - media know they get clicks from VACCINES DON’T PROTECT YOU argle bargle, but it’s still frustrating. The media and the government should absolutely be hammering home the message the Omicron is coming for everybody and your only hope is vaccination. Instead we get a bunch of ambiguous “map your pre existing beliefs to this any way you like framing” like “Vaccine X is Y% less effective against Z!” With governments entering various degrees of restrictions and lock downs heading into the Xmas season, I am seeing WAY more “why do we even bother if the vaccines don’t even work” nonsense than I am seeing “the only thing that is helping at all to head off total disaster is the vaccines”.

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By the way, at least in Ontario public health officials are absolutely partly to blame for this. They can see what’s going to happen - Omicron is going to spread super fast, it’s going to hammer the unvaccinated population overrunning hospitals, and they are trying to protect the hospitals (very reasonably!) by calling on the resiliency reserves of the vaccinated population to “cancel Xmas” to mitigate the damage to the unvaccinated and then the knock on damage to the health care system. Again, I get it, but C’MON MAN. The next severe variant after Omicron will likely fall after the TWO YEAR ANNIVERSARY of when we all became aware of Covid as a global health crisis. And we are STILL going about this with making accommodation of anti vaxxers a priority.

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This doesn’t inspire confidence:

“>99.0%” here is a euphemism for “>100%”. And I think these must be the “conservative” NYS numbers. The at-least-one-shot number is increasingly useless because of data quality issues–boosters are getting coded as first shots because no one can correlate them. Doses per capita is probably a better metric, if you can adjust to give 2x credit for J&J&J.

But 94% is definitely too high, and 88% is also almost certainly too high as well. The Bloomberg article I posted yesterday has some more discussion of the data quality issues.

Yeah I agree it’s unfortunate, especially that people in this very thread have been spewing this nonsense about the AZ vaccine. It is counterproductive and it’s also false.

I see a similar phenomenon with the flu vaccine every year. The flu shot often doesn’t do jack shit to prevent infections but do protect against bad outcomes. People don’t take it because they don’t think it works.

The NYT article says most vaccines won’t prevent infection, but will protect against bad outcomes. It’s not their fault people can’t read. It’s hard to overcome stupid. Get mad at stupid people I guess, but I’m glad to get the truth versus getting well intentioned lies in an effort to protect dumb people from themselves. And good intentioned lies can backfire as well. A good example being the “masks don’t work” lie in an effort to save the supply for the medical workers.

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You’re right of course. Stupid people are always going to take quotes about vaccine efficacy going down to zero against infection and internalize that to mean the vaccine efficacy against everything has been reduced to basically nothing. I do think it is incumbent upon those that are not stupid however to try to point this error out to those that are.