Conservatism could go either way here. From what you have said you are framing the decision incorrectly and have a status quo/laziness bias. And you have a well known contrarian bias against the so called liberal elite that probably tops of the the decision for you as well.
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How am I framing the decision incorrectly?
no
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I understand your point but hope you understand that there is no such thing as âdoing nothingâ. Youâre making a decision between options, all of which have large uncertainties, and that includes not getting the booster. I think youâre overestimating the risk and uncertainty associated with the get-a-booster option while underestimating the risk and uncertainty with the no-booster option. Thereâs a bias towards maintaining the status quo in the face of uncertainty, but that is not the same thing as being conservative and is not necessarily the approach that will reduce risk.
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There are not large uncertainties regarding the risk of booster shots. Roughly 8.4 billion doses of the various vaccines have already been administered worldwide. There are large uncertainties concerning the risk of omicron infection. You are off by many orders of magnitude when comparing the relative risk of the two.
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I mean, I got a diagnosis from a physician, got a positive test, had a fever for four days and lost my sense of smell for 14 days. The state health department sent me a quarantine letter saying when I could leave my apartment. Youâre questioning that I had covid? Seems crazy!
I think thatâs a fair point and I totally agree that there is no such thing as doing nothing. But I think that when risks are small and uncertainties are large doing nothing is a reasonable default, even if you think that the tiny risk of action is probably smaller than the tiny risk of inaction. Although Iâm having trouble articulating why, itâs just my instinct. If I canât think of a good reason for this then Iâll probably back off this part. Maybe that the tails on the risk of the âactionâ option are larger? But that doesnât really seem to fit here in this specific case.
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No, Iâm not saying that there are large uncertainties in the risk of booster shots. What I said that you quoted was poorly worded, the uncertainty in the risk of the booster isnât large. Itâs the uncertainty in the benefit of the booster that is large in my particular case. You shouldnât actually care about the absolute risk or the absolute benefit, you need to care about the risk to benefit ratio. But the benefit of the booster being uncertain is the same as the risk of the booster being uncertain, again, because youâre only concerned with that ratio.
Inaction/action is what I meant by framing wrong. A conservative position might be get all the protection you can get in the face of unknown risks. Guarantee most of the conservative elite are getting boosted out the wazoo.
But donât think you are dodging the tail end risk by ducking the boost. If us boosted folks end up getting free 5G, we are def going to spread it to you as well.
Btw, I just got boosted this week. Was pretty meh whatever sure about it when I made the appointment a little bit prior but really does seem like common sense to me now w/ Omicron spreading like wildfire.
It feels like the range of the benefit of the booster goes from a small benefit to a large benefit with no chance of a negative benefit and that even the small benefit would be significantly larger than any risk associated with the booster.
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Thereâs obviously a chance for a negative benefit from the booster. Should we get a booster every month?
This is a classic Keeed move because Keeed is, in my view, wrong about the calculus of getting a booster (that is, I think he should just get the damn booster) but I also think heâs correct about the epistemic uncertainty. That is, I donât think anyone ITT knows for a fact that getting the booster is the correct thing to do. This is super triggering to the usual suspects ITT with no ambiguity tolerance who zero in on this mild worldview threat like theyâre the Hero of Haarlem.
Like this is perceived as Keeed trolling the thread but heâs not asking that anyone agree with him and his last 15 posts are all, paraphrased, âsince thereâs epistemic uncertainty here itâs OK for me to make my own call on thisâ. And everyone is like AAARGH NO CANNOT ADMIT TO EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY, MUST MAKE THE BAD MAN AGREE.
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I think itâs more like most posters ITT donât think Keeed is smart/competent enough to account for uncertainty on his own and should defer to experts.
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Some would argue that we do not âknow for a factâ that we have hands
The burden of proving that our beliefs about having hands are mistaken, however, lies with the hand skeptic
thank god youâre here
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I feel like this post is a kind of second-level meta-keeding.
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We should not get boosters every month because the rest of the world isnât vaccinated, not because there is nonnegligible risk with each shot. For someone whoâs had two shots without a reaction, the chances of a reaction on any subsequent shot are incredibly small. They were already at the 1 in a million level on first shots
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What did I ask you to believe about your hands or your booster shot or your anything? Why do you care if I think I have hands or not? Is it out of sincere concern for my woodworking or typing skills? I have my doubts.
Without hands, we couldnât all jerk each other off ITT.
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You and your doctor should see a doctor
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