COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

Isn’t that was Roger Stone was in to?

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Ease up. Churchill didn’t post the article. Yes the article needs some scrutiny but attack the content not the poster.

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White House: No changes yet to Christmas travel

Speaking now at the White House, Press Secretary Jen Psaki is asked if Americans planning for holiday travel next month should reschedule their shots.

“Nothing has changed on our guidance at this point and time,” Psaki said, adding that travellers should simply “ensure they’re vaccinated, ensure they get the booster if they’re not yet boosted” and take all other precautions recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But she did not rule out changes in the future as a result of Omicron, saying new information on the variant had to be “assessed”.

The White House has said it’ll have a better understanding of the new variant in two weeks - right in the middle of the Christmas season.

https://twitter.com/afowler06/status/1465358375722663957

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I cant even imagine the complete fucking calamity that would be have to be under way for Biden to cancel Christmas travel with like two weeks notice.

They told us all to fuck off with our reagent resupply run until the travel bans are lifted.

Yeah this… also don’t think you can stop me from hitting Arlington on NYE if Michigan wins this week

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I think Biden’s hands are tied here unless he wants to increase the odds of Dems losing the House and Senate in 2022 from 98% to 100%.

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believe it or not, this bet is only 70% atm

Basically explaining how immune escape may mean Omicron can outpace Delta without having as high R0 - ie:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1465364317931393025

Here’s a thead of a seemingly competent bloke trying to do the maths:

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This reports the proportion of each variant by country. CoVariants: Per Country

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The US reported only 23,950 new cases yesterday and the 7dma continues to fall. It’s too much to just be holiday reporting at this point, cases are definitely falling.

April 2020:

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Yeah, it’s not just the weekend though. I get that Omicron is almost certainly going to cause another spike when it finally explodes here, probably in 2 months or so, but for now, cases appear to at least be declining. The 7dma is the lowest it has been since November 13th. That’s more then a weekend, and more then thanksgiving.

Nah we won’t know until later this week. Need to catch up on weekend and thanksgiving. Seven day average is nowhere near 23k (was like 100k a week ago or w/e), so we know we still have catch up. US data is so fucked im not even gonna look until Friday.

The 7dma isn’t 23k, you’re right, it’s 80k. But that’s off of a peak of 95k. Even accounting for some thanksgiving dumps it looks like it’s going down to me, but we can look again on Friday.

That’s my point. Cases the day before thanksgiving were like 112k and today is 23k. It isn’t plausible cases have fallen anywhere near that much so we know there’s a lot more normalizing to come. I’m skeptical they are going down but idk, our data is so bad now and worse around holidays so really just a shrug idk.

Then we get the likely post holiday spike then Christmas then w/e this new variant turns out to be so I’m still pretty pessimistic for winter. State and Fed behavior seems to indicate they think another wave coming.

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Oh wow, I didn’t realize what the pre-Thanksgiving number was. I’m with you. We still have some catching up to do. We have never seen cases drop that quickly anywhere ever.

As somebody that sits and watches biology (fermentation) in real time I strongly advise to wait. Data anomalies happen. When something weird happens in the short term without explanation, wait a couple of hours (or days for Covid stats) Patience, grasshopper.

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