COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

Yes. I require evidence. This shouldn’t be controversial

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How much further will markets tank Monday? I’ll say 5-7%.

Pfizer will have those results for you in two weeks… in the meantime, you’ll have to make do with Israels findings i.e. their cases were all Pfizered and all have it. Not dead yet so there is at least ‘some partial escape’

There still seems to be more speculation and model based assumptions so far.

There is selection bias in that the worst case scenarios are being looked for.

Otoh, there have been other putative escape mutants without this level of government alarm and action.

Also their is a difference between scientific certainty (or even preponderance of the evidence) and what the prudent public health response is.

I’d just hope that we can acknowledge the gray and not have too heated arguments about unknowns. Their is plenty of reason to be concerned and for public health action on the side of caution, but that doesn’t mean relative escape and morbidity are known factors.

Dealing with the gray areas is one of the hardest part of applied science. Information can be actionable but uncertain and later proven wrong. You just make the best decision with the info at the time, but realize what is and what is NOT settled knowledge.

And that’s exactly where we’re at. I guess the UK governments information is slightly better than ours and they are taking action accordingly. You can read into that however much you like, or however little you like. The desktop analysis is out, we await the laboratory analysis (standard stuff as far as covid goes)

If you’d like another snippet, emphasis seems to be back on washing hands - not sure what that means

Two new cases of the Omicron variant have been found in the German state of Bavaria, Reuters reports.

You are reaching too definitive of a conclusion from too little evidence on the escape front.

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I haven’t reached any conclusions other than perhaps Omicron will escape vaccines more than Delta or Delta+

The UK government isn’t requiring masks in hospitality settings even as they require them elsewhere. That is pretty clear proof that they are operating for theater rather than science or safety.

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This clearly proof they won’t shut down the few remaining parts of entertainment left open without THE EVIDENCE. Covid isn’t a political football here. You assume everywhere is like the US.

OK. Came across as more from your post, I agree with this.

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There is nothing safer about hospitality than grocery shopping. If anything, it’s riskier, and there is plenty of evidence of that. If they don’t have enough evidence to require masks in a hospitality setting, they don’t have enough for everything else. If they have evidence to require masks everywhere else, then omitting hospitality is deliberately choosing to accept a whole lot of loss of life. There is no universe where an action like this is evidence-based.

By the way, are you going to withdraw your lie where you claimed I said delta could not spread?

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In the UK? I’d strongly disagree it isn’t a political football, but should go in a different thread.

15 mins grocery shopping is more risky than 1.5 hrs in a restaurant, spitting over each others food? Most UK’ers have all major supermarkets delivering these days and the restaurants are still dead in comparison to pre-covid days.

We know restaurants are the riskiest of places but we’re not prepared to shut down our economy on a desktop study. Sure, we’ll partially shut down our travel economy becuase that will halt the spread, whilst booster uptake is increased.

Different worlds. 80% of groceries are home delivered. Restaurant capacity at best 50% of where it was before. UK testing still 5x of the US so easier to see where these outbreaks occur.

No, I was obviously saying the opposite, and how the willingness to take action with the former but not the latter proves Boris is just mashing buttons.

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Schools still open too. Still no plans to vax the under 12’s.

2 days isolation for all returning residents unlikely to be a vote winner.

Where are you sourcing this data for UK? I sort of know where to find it for us, but not for UK.

US and UK both excellent examples of how not to respond to COVID.

Supposed to go out and eat in restaurant, for first time since December 2020, tomorrow night. Cool Covid. Cool.

Anyone else feel like the 61/600 pozzes figure seems fishy?

Seems like it’s difficult for a sample of 10% of Gauteng to be positive, yet this many cases avoided antigen detection before travel.

It reminds me of the time a report out of Massachusetts said that like 90% of sampled homeless people were asymptomatic pozz, back in March 2020. Now we know that is basically impossible, and probably a result of testing anomalies or some failure to communicate the results correctly.

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I missed your sarcasm.

Groceries and public transport are ‘essential’ for some folks whereas restaurants aren’t. Hence masks now being compulsory for essential services (where say the old must visit / use) and still non-essential where you don’t really have to go to stay alive, like a restaurant or a football game.

So, if you still want to run the risk of a hospital visit to get a quarter pounder with cheese, Boris still says fine (given the current desktop evidence only) however you might need to self-isolate for 10 days if you come in close contact with another muppet unable to use an oven or microwave, if he/she has been in contact with Omicron.

Simples. Not mashing buttons.