Maybe something on the order of days, but that is not worth much when vaccine deployment is going to take several months. Since Wuhan, alpha, and delta have all seemed to obey a 3ish month wave cycle even in the absence of controls like in the South, we might expect at least a whole cycle before any vaccine update. Naturally OMGicron could be different, but it also isn’t clear what we would do any differently with few extra days. I guess it buys a little bit if the early data suggest this is bad enough that we have to lock down hard again, but even then that only is going to impact a small portion of the country when most people are convinced everything is over.
And every day we buy potentially saves thousands of lives even if it is 6 months.
This too. Especially the Pfizer one.
Then stop international flights/reinsitute
quarantine requirements, and test/quarantine recent arrivals as required, but do it for all flights.
Targeting a few countries is response theater. COVID spread worldwide is still high enough that we shouldn’t have had largely unfettered international travel pre Omnicrom anyways.
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Czech news sources are reporting that the OMGicron case in CR cut through Dubai as well. She was also travelling with eight other people from CR.
So yeah just what we need on top of what we have now.
is the current european wave still delta right now?
What is your reasoning for reaching this conclusion.
I also think it is unlikely, but I’m curious about exactly why people think that is the case. Furthermore, the more I think about it, the less obvious a slam dunk it becomes.
As far as I know, yes.
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of recent cases have been OMGicron. The rate of growth has been huge as of late.
Boris Johnson is now speaking
The prime minister has started the press conference.
Confirms double vaxxed catch Omicron
10 countries on the red list to quarantine hotels
Travellers to UK must take a PCR test and self-isolate before result
The PM has announced that all travellers entering the UK must take a PCR test by the end of the second day after their arrival, and must self-isolate until they receive a negative test result.
Boris Johnson stresses he does not want to stop travel and border measures can only slow down the spread of any new variant - not stop it.
He says he hopes he will be able to lift measures at a later date.
Yeah, these travel bans are probably going to be as useless as they were the last time travel bans were attempted. Still worth a shot, I guess.
Sort of a response to two posts here.
This virus spreads well before symptoms, so whether it kills the host later seems less relevant in terms of selective pressure. To date it hasnt evolved to be more benign.
Scientist who have done work on these mutations fear immune evasion (which would
worsen outcomes for vaxxed, particularly high risk, by some unknown degree) and we have seen correlations between high viral load in both transmissibility and severity of outcomes.
So idk, I guess could be more transmissible and more benign, but seems pretty unlikely to me that will be the case and more transmissible but slightly more benign is gonna tip over a lot of places next wave as healthcare on the tipping point to start with and typically more transmissible a worse mutation for society than more deadly.
Also haven’t seen a single epi promoting this
might be a positive.
So we will have to see, but guessing Omnicrom taking over not gonna be a savior for us.
Reasonable chance Omicron can partially escape vaccine - Whitty
Professor Whitty says several cases of the new variant, Omicron, have been imported into other countries from southern Africa, and the spread is expected to continue.
He says the concern over the new variant is linked to the rapid spread, as illustrated in the Gauteng province in South Africa where it was first detected.
Prof Whitty says it is not yet clear whether the variant can escape the vaccine but evidence suggests there is “a reasonable chance” the variant can partially dodge it.
He says the booster will strengthen any vaccine response, hence the government’s push to get more of the population boosted.
You’re right, we should absolutely do everything you said, but that doesn’t mean targetting a few countries is worthless. OG Covid did not spread to teh entire world all at once. Targetting the countries with known outbreaks is still better then doing nothing. Shutting down international travel and reinstuituting mitigation measures would be best.
Saw a term on twitter I think (gonna lol if it was here), vaccine erosion, that is a more reasonable description of what this might do if it takes over than vaccine evasion.
Would be highly surprised if this is essentially a novel virus and would expect virus is still going to reduce severe outcomes and transmission to some degree, probably still a meaningful degree.
Its just going to do very little and is being done to be seen as doing something without having to put even the most modest mitigation measures in place for the general public or somewhat harder measures affecting most international travel
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Key points announced in presser
The PM has announced a number of new measures to be introduced in England, following the announcement of a new variant of concern.
- All travellers to the UK will have to take a PCR test by the end of day 2 of their arrival; travellers must self-isolate until they receive a negative test result
- All contacts of suspected Omicron cases must self-isolate for 10 days, regardless of their vaccination status. They will be contacted by NHS Test and Trace
- Face coverings will become compulsory on public transport and in shops - not including hospitality
- The JCVI (Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) will consider giving boosters to a wider age group, as well as reducing the gap between the second dose and booster.
This is unsurprising and meaningless. We have known since at least December of 2020 that double vaccinated people can get infected with literally every strain. We need actual population data on vaccine efficacy, ideally that has enough representation of 2x and 3x shots to make those distinct categories, and breaking down infections vs hospitalizations vs. deaths.
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it would probably make sense to dig up some comparison numbers between different vaccines as well.
Reasonable chance partial escape? Strong take when that’s true of ever Covid variant.
Safe response. If our equivalent of Fauci stated anything else you’d be like WHERE’S THE EVIDENCE?
The fact he’s stating ‘reasonable’ tell us Brits all we need to know
First time we’ve had the requirement for vaxxed to self-isolate, so I wonder if there’s chance of more than partial escape, eh? Mandatory 2 day self-isolation for vaxxed or non-vaxxed travellers too… hmm
The US will copy the same rules in about 24 hrs - same as the rest of the pandemic.
Mandatory masks for shops and public transport - could be a tough one stateside