that I do not know, and didn’t see when I was looking this up. You’d have to dive into the actual sequence I think.
https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1464286066903552001?s=20
The US is still finding alpha in the continental US. Not much, but some.
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OG COVID from Wuhan does not have a Greek letter. The Alpha variant is also known as the UK variant. Not directed at Wookie, this has bothered me for a while.
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I think the point to be gleaned from the graph Caffeine posted is that the delta wave was at a particularly low ebb once omicron rocked up. Omicron entered in something of a vacuum. This means it can be easier/faster to become the dominant strain in a localised area (I think this is known as a founder effect). In turn that means drawing conclusions from the graph you posted like “500% more infectious than Delta” can wildly overestimate it’s true transmissibility.
I agree with you that the very early evidence from international travellers isn’t looking great for vaccines preventing infection - 3/4 Israelis were fully vaxxed, 4/4 of the Botswanan cases apparently were too. There’s a case that these were self selecting though. Dunno if this is true but if 95+% of international Israeli travellers are fully vaxxed then even if the vaccine provides a large degree of protection from infection it’s still more likely than not that those that do contract it will still be vaxxed.
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I think it was suzzer that posted that graph?
I don’t think they’re running round for no reason. There’s every reason to be cautious and proactive with this one.
Edit: Yeah Suzzer posted the reaction, but those people reacting are in effect knee jerking to graphs like the one you posted. That wasn’t a criticism of you posting that graph - it’s a useful graph, but like all data needs to be taken in the context of other info.
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In other news, Vaccine makers running round for no apparent reason
Vaccine makers look to tackle Omicron
The pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novavax has begun work on a new version of its Covid-19 vaccine, aimed at targeting the Omicron variant.
It says it hopes the vaccine will be ready for testing and manufacturing within a matter of weeks.
Other vaccine companies have also been cautiously optimistic about their ability to counter any potential new challenges posed by the variant.
BioNTech says it could produce and ship an updated version of its vaccine within 100 days if the new Covid variant detected in southern Africa is found to evade existing immunity.
And AstraZeneca says it is already conducting research in Botswana and Eswatini, where the variant has been identified, to collect real-world data on how its shot performs against the new variant.
Moderna has also said it will develop a booster shot for the new variant.
Maybe I misunderstand what you’re getting at, but no one here is suggesting that there’s no reason to be worried. ofc vaccine makers are correct to study this and be prepared to get a batch of updated vaccines into production if needed.
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they’re never calling a variant of this Xi
Suzzer posted it and made fun of that clam
Again, can we not?
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This thread is interesting:
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1464223677927596059?s=20
In particular:
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1464223698357993474?s=20
Omicron spiking across different provinces at the same time suggests an inherent advantage, not random chance.
That said, it’s hard to believe that Omicron is a lot more inherently transmissible than Delta, given how transmissible Delta already is. However, if Omicron is significant better at evading existing immunity, it could have a big Rt advantage even if R0 is similar. In particular, there could be a false sense of security effect if people who are vaccinated or know they have natural immunity are taking fewer precautions than the susceptible.
Just like they did for delta, even though ultimately that wasn’t needed.
https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1464310918389587974
I choose to believe it’s because of nu metal ruining nu- forever
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I mean, Omicron is the scariest of the letters, good job WHO.
If we had one every six months and weren’t 70+. Advantages with not redesigning = no lengthy testing protocols - hey, they probably knew something worth redesigning and retesting for was around the corner
Belgium is also seeing a spike in SGTF tests, which are potentially-Omicron/not-Delta. (Note that the graph omits zero counts, so the spike is more pronounced than it appears).
https://twitter.com/RogerGalligan/status/1464280113386860545
Right. There’s surely evidence it can outcompete delta in a specific instance, but by how much and how that translates to different contexts remains a big question. She mentions it took 6 weeks for Delta to assume dominance, but (I think) it did so in an environment where a large number of people were still contracting Alpha Beta, not at a moment when new infections were at a very low ebb.
I’d also question whether we really know when Omicron first emerged. She speculates a fortnight or so but reporting on the Belgian case says it was confirmed on 20th, but that the individual arrived home from Egypt on the 11th and had never travelled to South Africa at all. That suggests this thing could’ve been roaming around beyond a fortnight ago.
The dead and nearly departed vaxholes threads are going to be bumping on reddit