Yep, this pretty much sums it up. Always possible that a worse variant out-competes delta, but the weekly world news updates of every single variant that fails to do so is no different then the old broken clock that is right twice a day.
Thereâs zero situations where masks are used with 100% compliance. Yet they are still effective
I mean, this makes sense from an intuitive standpoint as well. There are plenty of situations where people with no mitigation measures whatsoever have extended close contact with a positive case and⌠donât develop covid. So blanket saying that using some Covid mitigation measures is basically ineffective unless done correctly with medical grade masks, or unless you keep the mask on during the entire interaction, is wrong. Even wearing a mask and taking it off is still better then not wearing it at all. Itâs about reducing your exposure. Some masking is clearly better then no masking.
The binary viewpoint of mitigation measures must be followed absolutely or they are ânearlyâ worthless is problematic for many reasons. For one, as we have seen over two years, it is simply not tenable for large portions of society who give up in frustration and stop doing any mitigation whatsoever. For another, itâs just not supported by the evidence we have. All masking helps reduce risk to some non-negligible extent, even when not done all the time or with properly fitted masks. Even the exposed nose masking has some benefit⌠if those people cough the mask is still doing something. I get that your response here was sarcastic, but I really do think your underlying assumption is problematic.
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Iâm havenât compared numbers but doesnât this sound like people who have had COVID are similarly protected as people who are vaccinated?
Canât Covid Joe cure his Covid Toe?
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Surprise surprise itâs just a fracture and he was being an attention whore.
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I donât know. Early on I remember there being a lot of feet related issues with Covid.
I tried this the first time around. But I dont think ârelative to deltaâ is the appropriate measure. Any variant that is growing exponentially is going to be a worry.
Unless we are at herd immunity, the pre infection with delta is not going to be playing a major role in restricting the growth of other variants.
This is what I understood your post to mean.
This is incorrect. At least, as I understand available evidence in the context of my training. I realize you arenât making a case to discourage mask use, but I do think youâre being hyperbolic about the risks faced while masked. I think youâre conflating ârisk youâre willing to takeâ with âsome basic protectionâ.
Itâs really not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and I apologize for being short with you earlier.
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They could be âprotectedâ and contagious at the same time.
Hmmm I suppose itâs possible for a variant to grow exponentially but not outcompete delta, but I canât think of a situation weâre thatâd be true unless it completely escaped protection from previously infected⌠which would be a nightmare obviously
You canât really do a direct comparison because of survivorship bias. The old, weak and susceptible die off much faster in the âCovidâ group. Youâd have to make a bunch of adjustments that would make your study susceptible to all sorts of bias.
There is definitively protection against reinfection. However, we also know that people who have had Covid are protected further by having the vaccine
https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1463539499397431306
This shit that no oneâs actually going to do isnât helping anything. Also if you want to take a stroll in the parallel universe bubble, read the replies.
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Rapid tests for all attending seems pretty doable tbh, although would have been more useful to push for it weeks ago so people could buy tests.
I think more bang for the buck pushing people to rapid test before entering rather than wear masks to family gatherings centered around a big meal. The food in the garage and stuff is whatever, but testing morning of doesnât elminate risk but will catch some meaningful amount of cases and still allow for a ânormalâ holiday.
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Not looking forward to seeing how all this plays out, virus was already trending upward before the holiday travel season and who knows if itâs a seasonal virus that gets a bonus in the winter.
I had a bit of a scare, both my parents came down with something gnarly but after testing it looks like itâs just the flu, which seems like itâs extra bad this year for reasons I donât fully understand. Mom insisting on dad getting regular flu shots may have kept them out of the hospital at a time when you donât really want to be near a hospital, everyone out there should consider getting regular flu shots.
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I would expect that a concurrent variant competing with delta would be blocked by a recent delta infection. The antigen change would need to result in almost complete escape from a recently activated immune response (and they both target the same receptor for entry, so direct competition for cell entry).
Obviously being first inside the body is important. Natural selection/competition is brutal. Even a small edge in anew strain would become obvious in a few weeks.
Cliffs -yes itâs hard but the math and history says it happens. Be wary and aware, but no need to lose sleep. Yet.
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Havenât posted in a while, but my jimmyâs are getting rustled by this new variant detected in South Africa. Vaccine prevalence is poor in the area, and thereâs no understanding yet on whether itâs as virulent as Delta but early indications suggest it may well be more transmissive. Plenty of their virologists and medical journoâs sounding that alarm today.
De Oleveira is the director of SAâs Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation:
https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1463833794276900864
That n=77 is up from the n=22 posted in this twitter thread (as she predicts):
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463828772164182020
You can see the growth relative to Delta demonstrated in the following graphic:
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846542264131584
As well as its spread in this one:
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463850215996338178
In related news a subvarient of Delta (AY 4.2) now comprises 15% of new cases in the UK, but may cause fewer symptoms.
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Seems like some variant that spreads better but makes people less sick and fewer people die is our only way out of this mess, so I for one welcome our new virus overlords.
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