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Maybe your immunosuppressants arenât working? Maybe you are Wolverine?
Case fatality rate is dropping, which is very much a good thing. As to why? More olds being vaccinated is most likely to me. No big advances in treatment that Iâm aware of.
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Scheduled the kids (12 and 14) for their first shots. dlk9s jr is excited.
We actually went to a party over the weekend, which was certainly weird. The host only invited people who were double-vaxxed, except for kids. He works at the CDC and lots of guests are doctors, so I feel pretty good about it. I do know that my son and I didnât have COVID going into the weekend because he was on a TV show last week and both of us (since I was his chaperone) got tested three times in a week and a half.
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Almost certainly.
People over 70 started registering for vaccination in the Czech Republic on March 1st (prior to that it was 80+).
On March 13th, the Czech Republic had 9,465 people hospitalized with covid. Today, itâs 1,884 which is an 80% decrease in less than 2 months.
Next week, weâre opening to all people 40 and over.
Probably also getting some stat padding from the vaccinated people who do get sick being much, much less likely to die regardless of age, too.
Funny, I was just thinking today that I hadnât looked at this in a while. Itâs hard to know exactly what measure to use, but one thing I did was measure:
- average deaths over the last 60 days
- average reported cases over the last 60 days
calculate CFR as (60-day average deaths as of a particular date)/(60-day average cases as of 21 days prior to the date)
I get this pattern, which I guess you could interpret as a decline:
But Iâm very surprised that itâs not dropping more substantially over the last 3 months. I think it really points to reported cases being an incredibly biased measure of actual cases, and probably skewing to symptomatic cases. It wouldnât surprise me if a fairly constant level of symptomatic cases ended up with deaths, even if the vaccine prevents both transmission and the development of noticeable symptoms.
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Iâm sure thatâs happening but itâs pretty damn rare.
60 days is a pretty slow moving filter. I think I used 14.
There is a lag in reporting.
Whenever anything is changing there is lag. Often these types of metrics go down when cases are going up rapidly (death reporting hasnât caught up) so here where the cases are down AND the death rate is down is a very good sign.
Just spitballing about 3 weeks ago we were at about 70k day cases on the 7 day average and <700 deaths/day now. So just a little below 0.01 on your chart.
With about a third of all Americans vaccinated and thus an unvaccinated population twice as big as fully vaxxed (and treating partials as unvaccinated), weâd be expecting about 5% * 1/2 = ~2.5% of all cases being vaccinated people. So, not huge, but not totally negligible, either.
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The number of vaccinated people who actually get sick and test positive has to be so low as to have a negligible effect on CFR though.
Edit: Nevermind I guess.
Thatâs a real possibility. Something that was going to be discussed with my dr next week anyway, so will mention this as well.
I donât understand this but a friend said the same exact thing so it must make sense.
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Here it is. The dumbest real headline of the year:
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I just found out all vaccination clinics in Tarrant County (fort worth/arlington) accept walk ins.
This is actually amazing. Like, you couldnât come up with a better psy-op to get idiot anti-vaxxers to help stop the spread by masking up and socially distancing.
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Not going to lie, this is awesome news if true.
Sherri Tenpenny, an anti-vaxxer who was found to be key in spreading COVID-19 conspiracy theories,suggested on a recent anti-vax livestream that you may have to âstay away from somebody whoâs had these shotsâŚforever.â
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It really is. Maybe they can all go start a colony on some island somewhere.
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Demographics should heavily influence cfr. If the people that have high death rates have fewer cases then you have fewer deaths. Or you could just not test, thats another good way to have lower cases. 
Nah, Id rather load them and a lawnmower on a Musk or Bezos rocket and launch them. Greater than 0 percent chance it blows up.
I just bought this mask:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B092J5BTHR?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details&tag=
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