Man I remember last December when over 50% of PCR tests in the Czech Republic were coming back positive.
Now six of the last seven days have been under 10%. Barring a sudden spike, reproduction rate will have been below 1 for two straight months as of next week.
It’s gonna be in the early 80s over the next couple of days here too. Then it’s gonna rain a bunch and be in the 60s afterwards 
. Weather’s been weird during the pandemic.
“Out of 20 people who are exposed to the virus and would normally develop a symptomatic case of COVID-19, 19 will have no symptoms, and the person who does get sick will be less likely to be hospitalized or die.”
I finally got my shot!
I think something like this might be the best plan.
It’s unfortunate, but once you start throwing percentages and probabilities at people, far too many of them will either misunderstand it, or it will just go in one ear and out the other.
Think of how many people don’t understand even the most basic elements of compound interest or marginal tax rates.
I do t think we have any data on serious illness.
But relative to two shots it’s prolly like 25% more risky but that risk is a really small number to start with.
I had an old friend from Quebec City bragging on Facebook that vaccine eligibility had been lowered to age 30 there, so maybe Canada is actually getting its shit together?
Was it that in non-metric years?
Cuts transmission by up to 95% (old covid), 90% ish against B.117, 85% cut in transmission of SA variant. B1.617.2 (Indian double mutant) likely lower.
How many weeks past single dose do you base this on? UK found zero antibodies in Pfizer until 14 days after single dose, then increasing to c. 10 weeks, then declining til second dose at 12 weeks after 1st.
Public health officials just don’t want to do marketing. Marketing is so crass, they don’t want to dirty their hands (or sully their self images) with such concerns.
Meh. I’ve been eligible for a month but there’s no shots in my community. They need to sort the logistics of appointments and vaccine distribution, declaring everyone “eligible” does make people vaccinated.
Yeah, I posted it. So three weeks after first dose, masked vaccinated are still passing and catching covid. Pfizer - 38% less likely, AZ is the 49%
Yeah. Seems weird to declare eligibility when there’s no realistic way for an appreciable fraction of the eligible to get a shot. Guess there’s always making a run for the border. I hear Vermont is just about wrapping up.
NB - Data likely based off a 12 week gap between 1st and 2nd doses. Relevant to UK and Canada, less likely US…
Analysis: New vaccine data bodes well for lockdown easing
Fresh data on the effectiveness of the vaccines has been published by Public Health England.
The analysis shows a single dose of AstraZeneca reduces the risk of death with Covid by 80% compared with unvaccinated individuals. This matches earlier findings for Pfizer.
Researchers were also able to identify the impact of two doses of Pfizer, concluding it reduced the risk of death by 97%.
Data for the impact of the second dose of AstraZeneca is not yet available as rollout of that jab started after Pfizer.
Incoming mainstream media headline:
STUDY SHOWS 1 IN 5 PEOPLE VACCINATED WITH AZ COULD DIE
Close but not quite correct. It’s not transmission. Also, the thing we really care about, morbidity and mortality, is astoundingly good.
It was bitter sweet to get confirmation of my long held ‘hot take’ that the variants of concern (VOC) would reduce vaccine effectiveness. The worry now is vaccine take up won’t be high enough to prevent the VOC being transmitted or mutating further to ‘dodge’ the vaccines.
B1.617.2 is the most transmissable yet. Up to 5% of the extremely low UK cases are now the double mutant from India. Wouldn’t be suprised to see effectiveness at 50% with this variant.
So I shouldn’t tell people the chances of getting Covid with the vaccine is the same as getting pregnant without a condom?
Well, if that’s what you remember, then you’re a champion in your own mind.
It’s over. All still masked here and following one of the world’s longest lockdowns though.