You talk to your condoms?
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Once again, 95 percent effectiveness does not mean that 5 percent of people are not protected.
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We really need a better term for how to describe effectiveness.
The general public is intellectually lazy and horrendous at math and logic.
Saying â95% percent effectivenessâ definitely means â5% of people are absolutely fuckedâ to a very large segment of the population.
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I am all ears, but messages that are short, understandable and wrong will beat messages that are nuanced, lengthy, and correct every time.
Agreed.
Not saying I have a better idea, just that the current one is inadequate. Even reasonably intelligent people are misinterpreting it.
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Fauci saying that we are going to end indoor mask mandates soon seems pretty bad and it will just encourage whoever is on the fence about getting vaccinated that they donât have to, since âcovid is overâ. Also, thanks for this, Fauci when my kid canât get a vaccine until 2022.
And he also keeps saying âif enough people get vaccinatedâ but we literally know that enough people arenât going to get vaccinated.
I think it is possible that covid rates plunge this summer before school starts, but man, what Fauci should be saying and what Biden should be doing is pressuring or incentivizing businesses/corporations to require weekly covid tests onsite if employees do not get vaccinated.
Nor does it mean that 5 percent of people who are vaccinated will develop covid.
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Just give the actual oddds of getting covid once vaccinated. Thatâs a much better number and we essentially have it right now based upon the number of breakthrough infections versus overall population over a certain timescale. âIf you get a Pfizer vaccine there is a 99.999 percent chance you will not get covid this yearâ is a much better message.
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Letâs.
Trial with 10,000 in each group over 2 months
200 test positive in the control
5 test positive in the vaccine group.
So .05%
This assumes a lower amount of community spread than at the peaks of 2020. Raw positive rates are not constant.
Now factor in its 1 in 100 of those vaccinated but still poz getting a serious case. Conservative?
So .0005% somewhere around 1700 illnesses in the US over two months. Say 1% of those kick it. Thatâs 17 or less than 10 per month.
Mostly pulling numbers out of my butt. But I donât think it would be much worse than these ballparks and maybe better.
https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1391705278412906497
To illustrate, 95 percent confidence intervals from the baseline regression imply that school
reopenings across Texas led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and at least 800
additional fatalities after two months. These magnitudes represent 12 percent and 17 percent,
respectively, of the total numbers of cases and deaths in the state during that period.
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The US recorded only 22,000 new cases yesterday. That is the lowest one day total since June 14 of 2020, which was also at a time that testing wasnât as good as it is now. The US does seem to really be turning a corner with the vaccines.
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Now if only Canada could get itâs shit together!
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This weekend, Vermont cracked 50% fully vaccinated and 70% with at least 1 shot.
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Iâm wondering if thereâs a bit of a reporting backlog with this number.
Vermont reported just 6 new cases yesterday, which would be a MASSIVE outlier compared to all of the other days of the week. It would certainly be great if this number was legit.
Even if it is a blip, we are definitely trending down very sharply. Our 7da is at its lowest point since early November, and about a third of what we were just one month ago.
âReduces someoneâs risk of getting infected by 95%â
Sundays always have a reporting backlog and low number as do Mondays and then Tuesdays rise. However yesterday was the lowest number for a Sunday since June 14.
Nah, the messaging should just be âThis vaccine is strong enough to allow you to do Xâ where you can target X to different demographics. Go to brunch, meet up with friends and their kids for a play date, go to a concert, hug your grandkids. Fuck all this Y% nonsense, thats for scientists not consumers.
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On Philly sports radio they are complaining that the Atlanta Braves had a full stadium and most folks were unmasked. They are wanting that here for the Phillies and especially for the 76ers playoff run.
Iâm modestly worried about the outdoor baseball stadiums.
Iâm more worried about indoor basketball which consist of much more constant yelling/cheering and well, itâs indoors.
But I guess the âexperimentâ will be done at some point in the near future. Still seem a bit premature to me to Yolo. Iâd rather states hit the 70% vax metric first.
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I wish some states would explicitly tie some reduction of restrictions to hitting certain vaccination percentages, but maybe they are worried they will never get that high?
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lol 70% vax metric