the us had a supply shortage in march which caused a dip
This is why I prefer the Mystery April 13 Phenomenon X nomenclature. It emphasizes the âmysteriousâ nature of the phenomenon, and also the arbitrary nature of April 13âitâs a date selected ex post, solely from looking at the shape of the graph. What does it mean? What could have caused it? ÂŻ\(ă)/ÂŻ
Anyways, the important thing is to move on and not consider this any more.
1 Like
Echoing Trolly here. You canât authoritatively state a causal relationship by drawing a line on a time plot.
It also doesnât pass the smell test. We were reaching the cap of willing individuals across most of the country up to mid April.
3 Likes
seems like nate was right all along
https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1382299663269761024
1 Like
This poll was conducted immediately before the Mystery April 13 Phenomenon X, and it found that 24% of all respondents would get vaccinated when the vaccine became available, compared to 35% already vaccinated (page 29):
Sure, I get that youâre being cutesy and fun, but this is just a classic problem of starting with a firm conclusion and cherry-picking the data to find a âjust-soâ explanation for a complex thing. Why is he tossing out the ABC poll showing vaccine hesitancy improving? How is he controlling for any one of many factors that affect how many people get a vaccine?
Iâm basically agnostic as to whether pulling J&J was the right move, but itâs baffling how cocksure people are about whether the decision was correct or not.
I donât think this is true for all age groups, though it does seem true for this forum.
Granted, this forum self selects for pretty conscientious and aware folks and doesnât have as many young folks as the general population.
1 Like
I think there are 2 separate questions:
- Did pulling J&J slow down/reduce vaccine intake?
- Was pulling J&J the right move?
I think the answer can be yes to both. Maybe it only temporarily slowed down vaccine intake, at the same time as it increased individualsâ long-term trust in the FDA. But Iâm in the camp of:
- Probably yes
- Probably no
1 Like
True. Maybe we need an anonymous poll that includes a âno, and I donât plan toâ option
Edit: be the change you want to see in the world
Are you going to get vaccinated (or have you already)?
- Yes, any vaccine
- Yes, but wonât get J&J or AZ
- No, I canât due to underlying health issues
- No, I am deciding not to get vaccinated
0 voters
I love how I can still make out grittyâs crazy eyes from halfway across the room.
1 Like
Huh. I wonder if their is a market for a magic potion that would take the vaccine out of your body?
Donât want to worry about blood clots?
For only 4 easy payments of $39.95â try our Vaxaway patent pending formulaâŚ
âPlus S&H
My kidâs girlfriendâs mother, who is an anti-vaxxer, was recently apparently ranting about how this is part of the plan of the global elites. And she says this from the comfort of her $5M (or thereabouts) Manhattan Beach home.
Who are the elites? As a Jew, this talk makes me nervousâŚ
2 Likes
I wonder if there is any effect on second dose rates? Hopefully not.
Right but this wasnât a random line drawn on a time plot and then weâre searching for reasons why that might be true. On or about April 13, people were all, man this is going to really effect vaccination rates. And thatâs what happened.
And it really bothers me when people refer to Silver as merely a poll aggregator, as if thatâs all he does. He also averages those polls together!
1 Like
1 Like