COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

Lol, I’ve been tested 14 times.

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Because you had to or because you wanted to?

I can Google it but just curious, why is Japan #1 seemingly so behind on vaccines? I’m assuming far fewer cases per capita to start with but still.

Add to this the current administration that succeeded Abe, which has proven incompetent on every level, and you get the current situation.

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Different reasons each time. A few times were exposures. A couple of times I had cold symptoms that were probably just allergies.

Be careful. You might give her ultimate virus on planet earth.

Summary

Another human

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So one of my best friends has the Rona. He is pretty overweight with 4 kids 5-14.

So far so good but worried that the worst is yet to come for him. Symptoms started over the weekend.

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The US should make some kind of backroom deal with Mexico. We give them something they want, and in return they require proof of vaccination to enter from the US.

About the only foreign country a lot of derpers ever go to is Cancun or Cabo. The only question is if it would kill their already reeling tourist economy. Or would the derpers just nut up and get it?

How did he not get vaxxed?

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I have not asked that yet. He is not an anti vaxxer that I know of.

They will be remembered as India’s lost months: the stretch between September and February when Covid-19 cases in the country defied global trends, falling sharply throughout the coldest months of the year until they reached four-figure daily totals.

It was inexplicable. Was it the Indian climate? A protection conferred by childhood immunisations? Some speculated India may have naturally reached herd immunity. It was a tantalising idea that took hold in India’s highest circles of policymaking, media and science – even a government-commissioned study suggested herd immunity may indeed have been achieved. It would prove one of the most fatal miscalculations of the Covid-19 pandemic so far.

Now, with daily cases crossing 360,000, and recorded deaths beyond 3,200 per day, many see the lull between Covid-19 waves as a cruel illusion. “The elections, religious festivals and everything else opened up completely,” says Sujatha Rao, a former secretary of the Indian ministry of health and family welfare. “That was a very bad mistake and we have paid a very dear price, a heavy price for that oversight.”

Surprising how many people haven’t been tested for COVID.

I got tested travelling to and from the US.

I had somehow gone a year without being tested despite working in a plant filled with covid deniers or people who just don’t give a fuck about it. Finally had a known close exposure to a positive person 6 weeks ago and got my 1st and only test.

A thread about what I’m calling the Mystery April 13 Phenomenon X, including some provocative theories:

https://twitter.com/ft__dan/status/1387531813724180484?s=21

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The theory here being that the J&J pause really hurt our vaccination effort, illustrated by the immediate drop in vaccination rates in all age groups following the pause. This is what many in this thread were concerned about when the pause happened (and I think it makes sense, though that is obviously influenced by my prior belief that this would happen).

Of course, we don’t know what vaccine hesitancy would look like if we’d gone ahead and kept J&J in general supply.

Also, idk how you decouple hesitancy from other effects. There’s ~300M people in the US, about half can’t/won’t get the vaccine, obviously the rate isn’t going to keep booming past >1.5M/day for more than a few months.

Yea good points. We will never know for sure whether the decrease is from most pro-vaxers already being shot (but I think that’s covered in the age range analysis since younger folks were generally less likely to be eligible, yet still decreased–see spidercrab’s post below) but I think a more likely alternative hypothesis is that the disclosure of the clots themselves is what increased hesitancy (if that is indeed what happened) and that the decision made by the government post-disclosure may not have mattered much.

There’s actually a good couple of graphs that deal with this:
Share of unvaccinated adults getting vaccinated:
https://twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/1387531819256479747

Vaccination rates relative to initial start date:
https://twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/1387531820497993732

(Someone later in the thread is raising questions about the data underlying the charts, but I’ve never looked at that data so don’t have any opinion about that concern.)

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It’s a fun exercise to pick a spot on that graph, draw a line, and come up with a just-so explanation for the data. Why did vaccination rates for the 65+ crowd abruptly drop in early March? Just a coincidence that it overlaps with Chuck Norris’s birthday?

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The most vulnerable are going to have high rates, so thats good.

There is going to be a massive population of mobile, social folks that won’t be vaxxed. The slope projections for the youngers are interesting.

My biggest fear is a continued appreciable level of viral replication (new infections) and a younger susceptible demo plus and a sigfnificant population of partial immunes (fading natural immunity, idiots that stop after 1 shot…) is exactly how I would design a natural mutation and selection system in a lab. It sure seems so far that more infectious variants are trending with more symptoms (or at least more in the younger demo).

But I guess if that happens, then vaccine compliance will go up (though if that doomsday comes true, everyone will need at least a booster to cover the antigen drift).

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