COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

2nd AZ jab tomorrow.

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Shot 2 is your chance…

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A guy on my team at work went to India 2 weeks ago for his sisters wedding. He was scheduled to fly back Saturday and test positive for COVID. So he’s stuck there for another 2 weeks… shockedpikachu.gif

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https://twitter.com/JakeSullivan46/status/1386359529865162752

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US seems to continue to be following the Israel trajectory. Vaccinations are driving down cases. 7dma countrywide is down 14 percent. Cases in NY (positivity, raw numbers, and hospitalizations) are all off a cliff lately.

I worry with the US is how robust community protections are in the face of being truly open and maskless.

Pro tip: it’s only really herd immunity if keeps cases down without any other protective measures.

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We’re never getting herd immunity. But the vaccines are really fucking good and I think they will be able to keep up with the variants and this will be just another disease that kills a lot of really stupid antivaxxers, an unfortunate number of immuno-compromised people, and very few who get the vaccine.

EU opening this summer. Thoughts on bringing 7 - 11 year olds?

I’m having a maga meme red button issue with the Pfizer vaccine. I obviously hate Pfizer but holy shit what an incredible job on this one.

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The number of new daily cases per capita in the Czech Republic has decreased by over 60% in the last month. That’s likely connected with the R being below 1 for the last soon-to-be 2 months.

Vaccines are still behind the curve and that’s unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. But I got mine and Greece is opening itself to fully vaccinated tourists. I’ve been to Crete and the mainland but not the other islands. Seems like an idea.

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I wouldn’t be comfortable taking 7-11 year olds on international flights until they are vaccinated. My 2 & 5 year olds are about to get jabbed in the pfizer trials and have a 2/3 chance of getting the real vaccine and I’m still sticking with a land vacation this summer.

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Not a parent, but I’d be leery about bringing unvaccinated children there (this is with the assumption that there won’t be a vaccine available for that age group yet). What if they catch it while over there?

That’s my thought too. But we really want to go. Probably won’t be able to in good conscience.

Japan in the midst of a “4th wave” surge of infections. A state of emergency has been instituted for Tokyo and Osaka. No more than about 3% of the population has been vaccinated.

Meanwhile, the Olympics begin in less than three months.

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Put me down for not believing Biden takes a “Mission Accomplished” lap. Nope.

Also, prepared to be wrong.

though adding, we’re totally accepting covid as a part of life and moving on. That happened a while back.

ETA: as we should, frankly.

No way. Sorry.

Our medium-term future is likely deciding how much risk we are all willing to take on a day to day basis given the ebbs and flows of cases, apparent vaccine effectiveness against current variants in the community, etc. We aren’t getting eradication, herd immunity seems like a stretch, and vax requirements and testing seem like they’ll be patchy at best.

The vaccines are awesome but the data doesn’t seem to support herd immunity in a 2019 environment with like a 2/3 vaccination rate.

Life going to be a lot better than it has been for the last year and change very soon, but I’m not sure when or if we will be able to fully stop thinking about COVID risk whenever we leave the house.

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The UK might be okay given its high vaccination rate and what it’ll likely be come summertime. Just mask up everywhere and you should be okay.

Of course if they’re still doing their crazy quarantine thing that might be out of the question

I think it depends on where you’re going. But I would not sweat a healthy 7 or 11 year old going to Europe on vacation if you’re planning on sending them to school unvaccinated next year. But that’s just me. I can see the other side of that argument.

The 11 year old, depending on when they turn 12 will likely get be eligible for the vaccine sometime this year. It’s going to be longer for the 7 year old, but I don’t have a good sense of when.