https://mobile.twitter.com/Tim_Tweeted/status/1423413303439679488
Iâve been wondering what would have happened if the Biden administration had done its best from the beginning to frame this as an actual war.
Consistent, top-to-bottom messaging about how the virus is the common enemy, itâs out there trying to kill all of us, and everybody needs to pull together and do their part to defeat the scourge of Covid, etc. Really tie defeating the virus to a sense of duty and patriotism. Go all in with the martial language: âfightâ, âbattleâ, âwarâ, âsacrificeâ, and eventually âvictoryâ
Obviously Trump poisoned everything and many people would respond to this reflexively and politically, but I think it could have made a big difference in preventing at least some of the culture-war framing that has settled in.
And maybe Iâm sweet-summer-childing, but Iâm not even sure itâs too late to try it now.
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Was never gonna work, since 35% of the population is itching to take up arms and fight for team virus.
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War of liberal aggression
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But Rick DeSantis could never get re-elected if he was branded a âcovid sympathizerâ!
They could even pay Hollywood to pump out some propaganda movies where the Covid Symps get what they deserve.
NH and VT have real winters. In that vein, Boston has great schools. The other place closer to your home would be NC in the triangle. I have no specific information, but I would guess the schools are good and have mandates and that there would be a market for affordable apartments for grad students.
man the mood on my medtwitter follows and Facebook groups (I know, but lots of doctors have the olds) is super dark right now. Might have a set of physicians just fucking quit if this doesnât change.
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Can you guys help me confirm that my math is correct?
For 0-12 in Florida last week the covid rate was 476/100,000
My county has 2.6% higher average than the state of Florida, so 488/100,000
The chance that someone aged 0-12 does not have covid this week is .99512
If there are 22 other kids in my daughterâs class then the chances that none of them have covid next week is .99512^22 = 89.79%
So there is basically a 10% chance that someone has covid in the first week of school.
The data suggests that next weekâs covid rate will be even higher, so this number will be higher as well.
Also, school age children will invariably have a higher rate than infants, so the initial number I started with (476/100,000) is actually higher.
If what doesnât change? The apathy towards vaccinations? The defiance of common sense measures like masks? The feeling that nobody cares how overwhelmed you are? The lie that youâre faking covid deaths to make extra money? We hear a lot from physicians on air, but theyâre always very smart and measured. Maybe we need to hear from some who are mad as hell and ready to go off on these morons.
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The nurses are doing even worse. Theyâre already quitting en masse. Travel nurses are getting 2-6k a week and agency are getting 50/hr here in central Texas.
They arenât paying that for charity, theyâre paying that much because their staff nurses are stampeding out the door.
Honestly my biggest stressor is not having enough nurses. I can take care of 30-40 very sick people at once if I have good nurses that are well staffed. Instead about 1/3rd of our ER is closed as we donât have enough nurses.
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Kids with positive COVID tests donât go to school though. The number you need is the portion of untested kids who are positive and arenât showing symptoms that would exclude them from school.
⌠Thatâs probably because every single one of the staff nurses should quit. Thereâs absolutely no reason any of them should be willing to continue to put up with the abusive relationship between administration, the doctors (no offense this isnât universal or anything), and the nursing staff.
They deserve ~50% more money and fixed regulated staffing ratios. Until they get that it makes zero sense for them to even stay in the occupation.
Our nurses are some of the highest paid in the nation with cushy ratios mandated by the state. Iâd agree if I was in NYC or lots of other areas. Hard pass on where I work now. Our issue is that our service area is growing and we need more nurses anyways. Not enough people to hire out there right now, at least quickly. We have some travelers coming in but it will still be a few weeks.
Iâm super tight with my nurses as well, and despite the âno offenseâ that comment bothers me a lot.
Wish I had a better answer. Thereâs just a ton of anger.
Seems like a case of the media massaging the story to find the most sensationalist angle. Some numbers:
- LA has had 21k new COVID cases in the last four days.
- 14.6% of LAâs population is under 10, and an additional 16% is under 20. (source)
- 37% of LAâs population is fully vaccinated. According to your link, 13% of 12-18 group are vaccinated. Extrapolate the 13% rate to the whole 10-19 group, and algebra gives us a 50.3% vaccination rate for the 20+ group.
- This means that, conservatively, the susceptible populations are 14.6 percentage points under 10, 13.9 percentage points 10-19, and 34.5 percentage points 20+. In other words, ~45% of the susceptible population is under 20.
- The âfairâ share of COVID cases for the pediatric group would therefore be about 9500 cases over the last four days.
- Even if you ignore vaccines entirely, a kid whoâs under 18 is less than half as likely to be a case than an adult.
The real story seems to be that young immune systems continue to be remarkably resistant to the disease.
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Itâd work as well as the war on drugs?
you wrote all that out without realizing that a doubling time of 4 days is really fucking bad? Come on bob we know better. Thatâs on pace for almost 100k cases in 16 days, and thatâs before everyone is back in school again (And surely you wonât say kids wonât spread it in schools still right?)
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The inability to still not understand the difference between the concepts of absolute and relative numbers is mystifying.
80% of really fucking horrible is still at least really fucking bad.
âLessâ transmission and disease is doing a lot of goddamn work for some folks.
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