The study from the last few days that the CDC was citing is for symptomatic Covid cases unless I am missing something.
They are, but of them, the vaccinated asymptomatic spreaders should be proportionally fewer in number and have a shorter contagious window.
Vaxxed people arenāt efficient spreaders because they donāt get the disease at an efficient rate. Yāall making this way to complicated with talk about asymptomatic spread and viral levels and whatnot. The R0 of vaccinated people is still far less than 1
Seems right.
From a whole population point of view it doesnāt seem like worrying much about vaxxed people is called for. From a personal responsibility POV, maybe the calculation isnāt exactly the same. Tiny chance I pass something along might still be enough to change my behavior even if that behavior shared by the whole vaxxed population wouldnāt result in increasing infections.
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This is not what the study shows. Of vaccinated people who got tested for covid and in whom the delta variant was found, a big majority were symptomatic (also notably older than the unvaccinated population). Of the vaccinated people found to have delta (in total, which is, again, mostly symptomatic people), their average viral loads were comparable to the unvaccinated population (but again, bear in mind that the the two populations were not equivalent: the vaccinated population was much older, and thus we expect more susceptible).
Itās not perfect data, because itās expensive to do deep viral sequencing for delta (as opposed to a simple yes/no test for any covid variant) for enough of the population to identify how many people have asymptomaic covid and how quickly they shed it. So, they can only examine the people who got tested, and those are going to be worse cases, especially for the vaccinated.
All of that is true, but the magnitudes of those effects matter and thereās nothing to suggest that delta is replicating efficiently in vaccinated people
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Well misunderstood you then based on this:
Iām also not going to jump onto an efficiency of high 80s as lower than expected. Tell me thatās the vaccines effectiveness in September of last year and Iām breaking out champagne.
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Gmab man thatās easily a good faith interpretation of your post and fuck I said I misunderstood you
Has there been some new data that supports the idea that vaxxed and asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic delta carriers have a high viral load and are spreading? Not trying to be argumentative, Iām legit asking.
I would also note that I have never been in favor of relaxing the mask mandates and said as much months ago when you were posting this then.
The vast majority of vaxxed people do have low or no viral load? 95 or 88 percent or whatever never was and never will be 100% but it isnāt 0% either. Were there really people arguing that symptomatic vaccinated people couldnāt spread Covid? I honestly mostly tuned out of the Covid thread for most of the spring so I wouldnāt know but it seems obvious symptomatic Covid people spread it to some extent vaxed or not.
Thatās ludicrous and further just damn impolite at this point. Have fun jt
Orange County Florida (Orlando) is currently averaging as many cases per day as New York. Not the city, the entire state.
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I think the fundamental question was whether or not vaxxed people should continue wearing masks. At some point the feeling seemed to be basically no, but now it seems that itās basically yes, at least indoors. JT was always saying basically yes.
If the preferred policy is that vaxxed people wear masks at least indoors right now, then why if not the real concern over increasing the spread?
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Because a mask mandate for only the unvaxxed is completely unworkable because the unvaxxed are also filthy fucking liars who donāt give a shit about other people.
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Lots of things changed between then and now though. The risk was always based on prevalence in a community. Iāve been vaccinated longer than anyone here, but it wasnāt the mask mandates keeping my mask on in January. Even if delta wasnāt making the vaccines slightly less effective I wouldnāt be going maskless ever with the prevalence in seeing
Ya I mean I will stipulate to the fact we should have always been wearing masks vaxed or not. Iād be stunned if vaxed people were more than a tiny fraction of the people out infecting people though. Maybe its 2x, 3x or 5x what was originally throught but that is dwarfed by the amount of unvaxed spread.
Rates are multiplied by x and contagiousness by y and thereās a range in how much protection people think is reasonable and JT doesnāt come down in that range in the same place as everyone. So, itās not surprising that the guy who wore this:
is in a different spot regarding reasonable PPE than public policy. But he was hardly the only one. One person itt didnāt leave their apartment for 3 weeks. Others were letting groceries sit for days. Some were fumigating their apartments after any possible contamination. People were changing clothes when they got home from a walk.
JT looked at the situation in May and said, Iād still wear a mask. Others look at this X times as bad (X less than 10, right?) situation and say, now I agree.
None of it is dumb or crazy imo. Iām not in the same spot on that spectrum as JT.
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I support universal mask mandates in all public places.
My simple caveman hypothesis is that the fourth wave hitting the US doesnāt have a whole lot to do with vaccinated folks wearing or not wearing masks. It looks to me that there is a correlation between the areas hardest hit and those places with low vaccination compliance.
Certainly canāt hurt to mask up; every potential transmission chain that is broken helps. I just feel like things wouldnāt be appreciably different in places like Missouri and Florida if every vaccinated person wore a mask 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Certainly could be wrong though.
Iāve barely changed my personal mask wearing policy throughout the entire time, but Iām privileged enough to hardly ever have to be close to people who are not in my family. I never wore a mask when I was 20 feet away from people outside and I still wear a mask when I go into a store even when itās not required.
eta: Thatās kind of day to day. Iāve definitely hung out with friends since everyone has been vaxxed that I wasnāt seeing before.
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This is a much bigger reason than vax transmission increasing community spread for masking up. However it makes the CDC decision even dumber because we knew this at the time! Bonus points because it probably hurt vaccination rates by amplifying the COVID is over signal (canāt prove it but anecdotally the data is following it)
Delta was going to burn the totally open for business US anyways, particularly the Floridaās of the world, but it is extra annoying because a lot of places in the blue states (at least where I am) with high mask compliance demasked based on CDC guidance (more and faster than I expected) and otherwise may have been able to slow down the Delta wave (Provincetown cluster almost certainly less spread with mandates). Remasking now is going to be a slower process with less compliance (didnāt see a lot of the āvaccinated guests do not need to wear masksā signs ripped down from stores this weekend).
Would have been nice if at least the CDC has now gone to a blanket indoor mask recommendation rather than asking the public to go to HillaryFactCheck.com or whatever to check on county level spread to see what the mask mandate recommendation is currently.
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