COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

The attitudes of people in rural CR does resemble that of rural America in some ways.

But even Czechs who agree with Trump think he’s a fucking moron. At the same time, they support a man who is a Czech Donald Trump: A Czech Donald Trump currently favored to get a third term as PM. So they’re not the smartest people around.

What is the Florida of Europe?

I don’t think it’s advisable for vaccinated people to go maskless in public, at least not indoors.

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Honestly this seems set up for disaster moving forward. Vaxxed people have zero tolerance for further discomfort, even the minor discomfort of masking, to benefit the unvaxxed, who are going to YOLO it up right into their graves.

To be precise, we’re talking about the uncommon “breakthrough” cases here, so no, this has not fundamentally changed, it just seems like breakthrough cases produce surprisingly high viral loads.

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That said, what we’re seeing with the delta variant is how much worse it is for the unvaccinated. Vaccinated people seem perhaps even more protected than alpha, almost as protected against the original strain, but the higher infection rate means that the unvaccinated get fucked, while the vaccinated people who get infected seldom have severe outcomes. As a vaccinated person, if you give a shit about the unvaccinated, you should mask up a lot, especially indoors.

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I am not even sure that vaccinated people have unusually high viral loads. It costs your body a lot of energy to maintain substantial defenses against a particular disease, and that can come at the expense of defenses against the constant barrage of bacteria and viruses we fight off daily. The whole point of the measles vaccine is not that our bodies have a constant pool of measles antibodies armed and ready but instead that we can produce them in response to our cells recognizing the nascent infection.

Bottom line, this observed high viral load could be totally ordinary for most diseases, because they can gain a foothold with some probability in vaccinated people. The point is that the vaccines train our cells to fight them off quickly, not that vaccines make it impossible for infections to take hold.

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hey, mang :upside_down_face: wb

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We have a pretty good idea.

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I mean I don’t know the details but this did go through peer review.

I assume you mean vaxed people right? Vaxed people aren’t efficient carriers and spreaders at least in comparison to unvaxed. The relatively small amount of breakthrough cases can spread it but even they aren’t as efficient overall at spreading it as unvaxxed.

Vaxed are less likely to get it, less likely to be symptomatic and less likely to spread it.

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Vaxxed are

in that they are less likely to get it and be in a position to spread it. But…

are they less likely to spread it if they do get it? (I wouldn’t doubt it, but is that known?)

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The vaccinated people with measurable viral loads are not usually asymptomatic. They are usually people with mild symptoms. That is why they got measured. It is basic germ theory that infected but asymptomatic people should have on average a lower viral load than the symptomatic, and those lower viral loads should also fade quickly.

According to the study posted up thread vaxed people are as contagious at the peak of infection but the peak infectious period is shorter. If the study is correct it means overall on average you infect fewer people if symptomatic when vaxed.

Seems like what Wichita was saying. Less time being as infections → lower R number for the population → different set of public policy required to achieve R < 1. If you’re just looking at this from a public policy POV and that doesn’t imply anything about whether past policies have been inadequate or ridiculously inadequate.

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I mean I doubt anyone here was saying symptomatic vaxed couldn’t spread it back in March? All the studies I have seen still show high 80s effectiveness for the MRNA vaccines.

Where are you seeing that we have more mild asymptomatic cases than expected amongst the vaxed and that these people are efficent spreaders? I’m not saying this isn’t happening but I would like to see the stats or studies related to this.

All sounds right and has anyone ever been doing randomized testing to know what infection rates really are? Ever?

Don’t know if these things are known, but if there are enough asymptomatic vaxxed infected people who are barely contagious, that could still result in a very high R number and we wouldn’t recognize that if we weren’t testing randomly, including people without symtoms.

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Is it known that asymptomatic vaxed are contagious?