I hope this is true, but I think there’s a first vs. second derivative issue going on between that conclusion and those graphs. Those graphs are showing estimated R, and the fact that R is seemingly decreasing is good news. But as long as it’s over 1 (which it is in 3 out of 4 of those graphs), we should still see increasing cases along with the subsequent hospitalizations and deaths. With R decreasing, we’ll just see the cases increasing at a slower rate.
The fact that I personally know three people with breakthrough cases (two who got pretty sick) gives me pause.
My tinfoil hat says that “they” want to keep information on breakthrough cases as quiet as possible because people who aren’t vaccinated will think “fuck it, if I’m going to get sick anyway why get the jab?” While obviously the vaccine is still super awesome at preventing severe illness, but that’s a harder pitch to a populace that needs things spoon-fed to them in 5 second soundbites that are black and white.
Florida data out for the past few days. 16,000 today and the last two missing days were both over 10,000. As near as I can tell todays new case number is their 6th highest day of new cases ever.
I wonder if the dips are due to some informal circle vaccination activity. Grandpa gets sick and close friends and family wake the fuck up (or panic) and go get a shot resulting in some transmission chains being stopped.
“Yes, I’m vaccinated,” says NBA legend Charles Barkley. “Everybody should be vaccinated. Period.”
“The only people who are not vaccinated are just assholes,” he says.
The 58-year-old NBA Hall-of-Famer says he personally thinks sports leagues should force players to get vaccinated. “Can you imagine if one of these guys that are not vaccinated, if they get one of these players’ kids, wives, girlfriends, moms and dads sick and they die over some unnecessary conspiracy bullshit,” Barkley says. “I think that would be tragic.”