The situation in Florida could get very serious very quick. No social distancing no mask wearing and very contagious delta virus that may or may not be more lethal?
The anecdotal information sure seems to align with more younger and healthier folks having severe disease.
A victim here
https://twitter.com/juliezebrak/status/1418367913753522178?s=21
I think the answer is neither and it would be hard to model. Iâd guess slower, but not significantly slower.
The vaxxed and unvaxxed are not homogenously distributed. Vaxxed people generally hangout with other vaxxed people and unvaxxed with unvaxxed.
When you throw in the fact that even some vaxxed will get it (mild, but it will count as a case), it wouldnât surprise me if weâre pretty close to a half-sized country with no vaccine at all.
On top of these good points, Delta is substantially more infective so while there is some downward pull from the vaxxed 50%, Iâd guess that the higher infectivity outweighs it.
I think undercounting is going to be more severe since vaxxed people wonât rush to get tested for very mild symptoms (assigning to colds etc). I wonder what that will due to the CFR stat.
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Could someone please get a job with the CDC and help them tighten up the precision of their models? TIA
803,000 is a very precise number. What more do you want?
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Man it is just so brutal how reactive and results-oriented the thinking of most people is. Itâs really getting brought home to me by this outbreak in NSW. The NSW government has been making panicked pleas today:
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian pleaded today to be given more doses of Pfizer as the outbreak grows in the cityâs south west and west.
However that pleading fell on deaf ears from both the PM and other state premiers.
As did Ms Berejiklianâs plan B, news.com.au understands, that would have seen existing vaccination appointments with GPs in Sydney cancelled and those vials diverted to people at the centre of the outbreak.
Scott Morrison would not agree to this plan.
Instead, more people in NSW will be able to get their first doses of Pfizer. But only by making people wait longer for dose two.
Meanwhile, the NSW Government has said that the current outbreak in Sydney is a ânational emergencyâ and has asked for more vaccines to be sent to the city as case numbers inch upwards once more.
Itâs way too late for some sort of rushed vaccination program. When the patient zero of this Delta outbreak was revealed to have been wandering round in the community, and even after it was known he had transmitted it to someone via casual contact at a supermarket, the NSW Premier didnât even fucking mask mandate. Literally the least you can do. SA was plunged into a 7-day hard lockdown as soon as there was a single known case of transmission in a public setting. The next day there were 9 new cases, but then 2 and then 1, the latter 3 all being quarantined for the entirety of their infectious period. It looks like weâre winning. WA have been the harshest of any state, doing things like changing entry rules while people were in the air on flights, giving them the choice between 14 day hotel quarantine or flying straight home. Neither state is very impressed with NSWâs lax approach and then sudden âOH NO, PLEASE SEND HALPâ pivot:
West Australian Premier Mark McGowan says he will reject a request from New South Wales to share coronavirus vaccine doses, hours after South Australia announced it had made the same decision.
Mr McGowan criticised NSW over its handling of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak in the state, and said the lockdown in Sydney was âhalf-bakedâ.
He said while WA would continue helping out with contact tracing, sharing Pfizer jabs was out of the question.
âI understand their problem, but weâre not prepared to give Pfizer over,â he told reporters on Friday.
He said while an outbreak of the Delta strain in WA was quickly âcrushedâ, in his view NSW had struggled to do the same because the Sydney lockdown was not âdraconian enoughâ.
âThis is not a time for half-measures,â Mr McGowan said.â
SA Premier Steven Marshall told reporters on Friday morning he would block the plea from his Liberal counterpart as his state grapples with an outbreak of its own.
South Australia was plunged into a seven-day lockdown on Tuesday evening and Mr Marshall said he was committed to rejecting any request that slows down its pathway to easing restrictions.
Sending vaccines their way isnât actually going to do anything immediate, so I donât have to feel bad for the NSW people in agreeing with the SA Premier that our attitude should be âdonât come crying to us nowâ. Their negligence is the whole reason we have an outbreak in this state as well.
Itâs so crazy to me that weâre at this point in the pandemic and there are still governments here who donât understand that what you have to do is go very hard, very early in combating outbreaks. As late as when their were 55 cases in NSW, which is a month ago now, the PM appeared on TV saying:
NATALIE BARR: Prime Minister Scott Morrison joins me now. Good morning to you. How concerned are you about the situation in Sydney?
PRIME MINISTER: Well, obviously concerned but also very confident in the ability of the NSW Government which theyâve demonstrated time and again in dealing with these situations. I think the restrictions they put in place are understandable and common sense, and I commend Premier Berejiklian for resisting going into a full lockdown.
Like are you guys for real? And now youâre like âplease send us your vaccinesâ? Fuck off.
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And as Iâve mentioned before, the Federal Government rejected a deal offered by Pfizer back in June last year to provide enough doses for the whole population for around $1 billion. The current Sydney and Melbourne lockdowns are estimated to be costing $370 million per day. So thatâs 3 days of lockdown cost. Thereâs a problem now where most people donât want to have the AstraZeneca because thereâs this clotting side effect and the individual benefit is so small (as there still isnât really much covid in Australia) and everyone is aware more Pfizer is on the way.
Itâs so unfathomable to me that you wouldnât err on the side of overspending on vaccines. Like that has to be the worst spending decision made by any Australian government in the time I have been alive.
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At least 99% of those in the US who died of coronavirus in the last six months had not been vaccinated, Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has said.
Meanwhile vaccination rates have slowed down nationwide and are especially low in some of the more conservative, southern parts of the country, despite more than 610,000 people in the US dying of the virus since the pandemic hit in early 2020.
In places such as Alabama, only 33% of people who can receive the vaccine had been fully vaccinated, as of 20 July.
On Monday, a doctor in a Birmingham, Alabama, hospital, Brytney Cobia, said that all but one of her Covid patients at Grandview medical center didnât receive the vaccine, with the one who had expected to make a full recovery after receiving oxygen, she told the Birmingham News. Several others are dying.
âIâm admitting young, healthy people to the hospital with very serious Covid infections,â wrote Cobia in a Facebook post on Sunday.
âOne of the last things they do before theyâre intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that Iâm sorry, but itâs too late,â she added, referring to patients who have to be put on a ventilator.
Alabama public health officials recently reported 96% of Alabamians who have died of Covid since April were not fully vaccinated.
Among the people succumbing to the deadly disease are those who are increasingly catching the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which is far more contagious than the original.
The variant now makes up 83% of new cases in the US, according to Walensky.
âThis is a dramatic increase, up from 50% for the week of July 3,â she said.
That sucks. I am really worried for places that successfully avoided Covid 1.0. For whatever reason, the governments did not take advantage of that success with vaccine urgency.
Delta could really rip through before adequate counter measures are taken, or as you say a complete shutdown will be needed with all the societal costs.
Whatâs NZ been up to?
Stay safe.
Canât wait to see that clownshow get re-elected ugh.
It seems obvious that these GOP ghouls who have been happy to tap dance on Covid graves the last 16 months are coming to their senses because this wave is going to be catastrophic, especially in red areas. Itâs weird to say but Democrats and left leaning Independants wonât feel too much personal consequence from this(outside of hospital workers) because we are all vaxed. Meanwhile the GOP is about to start losing an awful lot of voters as well as take a huge amount of blame for Covid 2.0.
Iâm not convinced they care at all about the personal suffering but I do think they are starting to realize this is going to be terrible for them politically.
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I donât think it is going to play out like that. I think resentment against the unvaxed is about to be sky high when mask mandates come back and the bodies pile up. 99% of normies donât realize what is coming in a month or so and once we are back to overwhelming our hospital systems and widespread death people arenât going to be as tolerant of crazy aunt Karen spreading her anti-vax bs on FB.
Thatâs what I think DeSantis and Fox are trying to get ahead of. The idea that they caused what is obviously coming.
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I hope she has a security detail.
