The whole delta thing is so weird.
Some parts of the world are surging because of it (US and UK). Yet, eight of 28 provinces in Bulgaria have no infections and the Czech Republic has a reproduction rate below 1. I wonder why that is. I mean Bulgaria only has 13% of the population fully vaccinated and with only a few exceptions, there are no restrictions on anything. Delta should be feasting here.
Just wait.
Turning away a proven antidote in favor of “possible” ones is truly crazy bananas.
To continue the theme of today.
So as I’m 11 days into my 2 Jab timeline I went for a long walk around the west end and into town and on the way I bumped into a few friendly faces.
All was good, comparing vaccinations and having a laugh until I bumped into a old gambling friend who’s always had his own business, a couple of sentences in and I ask what Jab he’s got and it started.
According to him there all unapproved, rockafella runs the world and Blair/Hancock have caused all this and the institute of economic affairs is running down the UK’s population to 10 million by 2050, all unsubstantiated bullshit Ofcourse.
I just let him rabble and walked away calmly & wished him all the best.
But its gutting, seeing what you believed to be a level headed person fall to the Youtubes/Facebook BS and the more you try to push back the more they dig in and your only comeback that will even dent them for 5 seconds is reminding them of all the illegal drugs they took back in the day that were also unapproved.
Social media has got a lot to answer for and tbh I don’t think we’re coming back to reality anytime in the foreseeable future with these folks.
Seems like a fair deal.
The full exchange is really something:
“Here I am recovering, getting out of here finally tomorrow. Am I going to get a vaccine? No,” Roe said. “Because there’s too many issues with these vaccines.”
This father, former baseball coach, small business owner and hunter caught COVID and then developed pneumonia.
“Before you got sick,” Begnaud asked Roe, “if you would have had a chance to get the vaccine and prevent this, would you have taken the vaccine?”
“No,” Roe said. “I would have gone through this, yes sir… Don’t shove it down my throat. That’s what local, state, federal administration is trying to do - shove it down your throat.”
“What are they shoving,” Begnaud asked, “the science?”
“No they’re shoving the fact that that’s their agenda,” Roe said, “their agenda is to get you vaccinated.”
“You know who Mr. Scalise is?” Begnaud asked Roe.
“I know who Steve Scalise is very well,” Roe said.
Roe, who is a Republican, had not heard that Congressman Scalise had stepped into the forefront Tuesday as a vaccine proponent. Begnaud asked him to read the congressman’s statement.
“He thinks it’s safe and effective,” Roe said.
“And what’s your reaction?” Begnaud asked.
“Not proven,” Roe said.
“But does his opinion change yours?” Begnaud asked.
“No, it does not,” Roe said.
“Here I am recovering, getting out of here finally tomorrow. Am I going to get a vaccine? No,” Roe said. “Because there’s too many issues with these vaccines.”
This father, former baseball coach, small business owner and hunter caught COVID and then developed pneumonia.
“Before you got sick,” Begnaud asked Roe, “if you would have had a chance to get the vaccine and prevent this, would you have taken the vaccine?”
“No,” Roe said. “I would have gone through this, yes sir… Don’t shove it down my throat. That’s what local, state, federal administration is trying to do - shove it down your throat.”
“What are they shoving,” Begnaud asked, “the science?”
"No they’re shoving the fact that that’s their agenda," Roe said, "their agenda is to get you vaccinated."
We had our spike in the Czech Republic related to Delta. 80% of the new cases in the Czech Republic are delta. Now the numbers are declining. No guarantee that it won’t pop up again but it’ll take mass ignorance of what restrictions remain, incompetent decision making from health officials, and/or a new mutation for a new rise.
Has anyone done a study to evaluate vaccines as a post infection treatment?
Don’t see how that would help.
Apparently there are some researchers at Yale who are studying the impact of vaccines on long haulers, but I don’t think they’ve published results yet.
“One theory is that people who are infected never fully clear the coronavirus, and a viral “reservoir,” or fragments of the virus, persist in parts of the body and cause inflammation and long-term symptoms, says Iwasaki, the Yale immunologist.”
“According to that explanation, the vaccine might induce an immune response that gives the body extra firepower to beat back the residual infection.”
“Right now, we have anecdotes, we’d love it to be true, let’s wait for some real data,”
I’m shuddering at the inclusion/exclusion criteria they must develop.
Also this idea has been pushed (reservoirs, fragments and whatnot) and has not worked out.
Yeah, the whole long hauler phenomenon seems nebulous enough that I’m sure it’s hard to design a study that would show robust results. Just thought it was interesting that it was being studied. (Although I guess with something as big and disruptive as Covid, there’s probably someone studying it from every possible angle)
Oh it should be studied it’s just going to be extremely difficult. Like there’s a whole set of covid long haulers who have never swabbed positive for covid or tested positive for antibodies. Are you going to cohort them with people who were hospitalized? Are you going to ignore them?
A few quotes from that Alabama article that are in line with the perspective @CaffeineNeeded has been posting ITT.
“You kind of go into it thinking, ‘Okay, I’m not going to feel bad for this person, because they make their own choice,’” Cobia said. “But then you actually see them, you see them face to face, and it really changes your whole perspective, because they’re still just a person that thinks that they made the best decision that they could with the information that they have, and all the misinformation that’s out there.
“And now all you really see is their fear and their regret. And even though I may walk into the room thinking, ‘Okay, this is your fault, you did this to yourself,’ when I leave the room, I just see a person that’s really suffering, and that is so regretful for the choice that they made.”
I think the CFR is increasing, which is bad news and inconsistent with the idea that cases and deaths should be decoupling.
Here’s what this ratio is:
Numerator: 60-day average deaths as of a given day (i.e., total deaths over the last 60 days divided by 60)
Denominator: 60-day average cases, as of 21 days prior to that day (i.e., total cases over days -81 to -21 divided by 60).
The general idea is that, if deaths occur (on average) roughly 3 weeks after a positive test, then you get a reasonable estimate of CFR by comparing current deaths to lagged cases. (Using a 14-day lag instead gives the same pattern.) Using a total of 60 days should smooth out spikes from things like weekends and holidays.
I am totally unsurprised that widespread vaccination led to a big drop in estimated CFR starting around mid-April. But I’m stunned and worried that it’s picking back up recently. Hopefully this is just me doing a terrible job of armchair epidemiology.
Delta is claimed to have higher morbidity. I don’t know if this means more severe disease overall or just more in wider range of demographics.
Given that the vast majority of cases or in the unvaxxed and the unvaxxed disproportionately represent a younger demo, this would support the increased disease in “healthier/younger” people.
We shall see if the trend continues. Thanks for the graph.
