COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

Yah that seems to be similar to the US in that you need to wear a mask to fly and to use mass public transport in places like New York City.

But no masks and full capacity in restaurants, full stadiums, etc.?

What’s really frustrating is that the London mayor has the power to do this - the other metro mayors don’t and need the Govt to - which they currently won’t because they are a complete shower of shit.

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Theatres, restaurants, nightclubs, festivals etc all fully open from tomorrow with no restrictions, god help us.

I assume when the footballs season starts in a few weeks it means capacity crowds lol.

It’s basically herd immunity via infection, which is what he first wanted.

I didn’t realise that. I can’t imagine travelling in rush hour with unmasked people.

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Sorry to hear that, sounds an awful lot like you guys are going to be in pretty much the exact position that the US is in vis a vis “mitigation”. Hopefully your population is a bit more…thoughtful in terms of continuing to take precautions on their own.

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We are quite similar in a lot of ways to the US (identifying with American culture instead of with European was one reason behind Brexit imo).

We are probably more cautious on the whole, though there are still a lot of idiots here.

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It’s very interesting here now. If it goes badly wrong (and there’s every chance) with a daily IFR of 200,000 say and he has no choice but to lockdown yet again because hospitals cannot cope, it could be the end of him politically because the very influential group of Tory filth who put him into power to GET BREXIT DONE are adamant that this must be the last lockdown.

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Does anyone still have the link to the N-95’s being produced stateside?

I could not find the mask thread.

Fortunately for the US, lots of our idiots are hanging out in vast mostly empty spaces, where I believe the population density in the UK is much higher, so your idiots probably get to mingle more than ours.

It’s frustratingly difficult to get a handle on the math here. The CDC apparently ran a program to collect seroprevalence data from blood donations (not sure if it’s over or if they’re just slow about posting results, but latest data is from March). Lots of data here. The latest number is from mid-March, which said 49% of people sampled had COVID antibodies, either from vaccination or infection. As of mid-March, 21% of people had gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Assuming that the first dose triggers a positive test, that means 28% of people had prior COVID infections and weren’t among the group vaccinated by March. An additional 27% of the population has gotten at least one vaccination since then. That’s maximally 66% of the population with COVID antibodies. If you assume that prior COVID infection and vaccination are independent, you’d get 60% instead.

I’ve seen a few different numbers for R0 for Delta, ranging from 5 to 8. That means that herd immunity will require between 80% and 87.5% of the population to be immune. That leaves us needing an additional somewhere between 14% and 28% of the population needing to be infected before we get to HI. Also note that vaccines aren’t 100% effective, so the real numbers are higher than that. And the virus doesn’t disappear the instant we hit HI, so uncontrolled spread will result in overshoot. All told, we’re likely one-half to two-thirds through the pandemic by number of cases in the US. I think we’re probably going to run through the remaining cases pretty quickly though. If the remaining vulnerables aren’t going to get vaccinated, there’s not really any reason to adopt really burdensome quarantine measures, except to the extent you need to to avoid swamping the hospitals. And the political will is definitely not there, and it’s unlikely to appear if we don’t see a bunch of deaths.

Testing is definitely a question though. Maybe a lot of those millions of cases are undetected.

EDIT: to fix a math error

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Here’s the link if anyone is looking for N-95’s.

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Sorry I didn’t respond sooner, as I’ve been out most of the day watching the Indiana Jones film being made in our city, seems like you got an answer from Jal.

:v:

Alough it’s different rules here in Scotland some people are just not wearing masks but tbh it’s been really good here with mask wearing inside, I suspect England could be overran with Covid-19 cases in a few weeks if the trends continues after the let it all loose day, tomorrow.

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Staffing at the hospital is becoming a big issue, Neilsen noted, as unvaccinated staff are being exposed to and getting COVID-19 in addition to undergoing burnout. There is only around 52% vaccine compliance among employees at UF Health Jacksonville, according to the director.

Imagine receiving healthcare at a hospital where only half the employees believe in science.

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don’t think that’s too abnormal. Doctors take it at 98%+, but support staff make up the vast majority of employees in a hospital and they don’t take the vaccine at much of a rate.

Really. I heard unvaccinated staff and thought, “Why is there unvaccinated staff?”

It’s the same way I feel about teachers. I smack my forehead just thinking about it.

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If predicted outcome is Ds make a big deal of opposing it then Trump supports it and then Rs block it, wouldn’t that make it a bad strategy? No practical effect and everyone except Trump opposes/block very popular policy which he is trying to push through.

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I’m continuing to look at box office numbers as a proxy for how open for business we are in America. For the week of July 9-15, total domestic receipts were $163 million. That’s 90% of the receipts from the same week in 2019, although they’re not exactly comparable because in 2019 the most recent blockbuster (Spider-Man: Far from Home) was in its second week, while this year Black Widow was in its first week of release.

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Ikes basically covered it, but I’m sure that’s probably typical.

“Employees” covers everything including janitors, the people answering the phone, the maintenance people, security, etc.

The way a hospital runs, very few of the people actually need to believe and understand science of any kind to deliver decent health care. Everyone else just does the job that they’re told to do. Their beliefs and comprehension aren’t too important.

I think his rationale was that he looks at everything through a business perspective. He doesn’t see any ROI for military actions abroad, therefore he is against it. He is unable to comprehend anything that isn’t directly measured in dollars, like geopolitical calculations.

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You can ask him to buy out.