COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

I can’t quit cold turkey in Publix. I’m going to start wearing it under my nose, and one day I’ll start wearing it across my chin. Then someday I’ll decide if I’m ready to quit all the way.

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I haven’t had a cold in 18 months. I might keep wearing my mask for a while.

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Some contradictory scenarios in the Czech Republic. There’ll be more dismantling of measures. The most notable change is the requirement to wear respirators on public transport. Regular veils will be accepted.

While covid cases are continuing to go down (though slower than in the past) in the country, the exception is Prague. Cases are creeping up here while they go down everywhere else. Methinks the dreaded Delta mutation has landed in Prague.

There seems to be an obvious solution to your problem

image

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7dma down to 11k cases in NYTimes tracker, another new low. I think it’s safe to say at this point that the relaxation of masking rules has not led to an increase in cases in states with high vaccination rates. There are just too many people at this point in those states who either have vaccine immunity or immunity from having covid. Even without masks the disease just can’t spread very efficiently in those states. Cases are definitely increasing in a handful of low vaccination states however, MIssouri seems to be leading that charge. Cases still declining in the vast majority of states however. Even Florida is still declining, which makes sense, Florida’s vaccination rate may not be as good as the NE, but it is also significantly better then the Deep Red states.

Finally, in another piece of good news, the US’s vaccination rate actually seems to have gone up a bit and stabilized around 1 to 1.1 million shots a day. Given how many people have already been vaccinated, that’s not nothing. That also lends credence to the idea that there are still a lot more people out there who we can reach with vacc outreach programs. I don’t think most of these people are hardcore anti-vaxxers, it’s some combination of access and education.

Access, eduction and waiting to see if anyone they knew who got vaxxed gets sick. Which of course doesn’t tell you anything about 1 in 1000 events, or long term effects. But that’s how people’s minds operate.

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I feel very good about the summer in the high vax states. South could have an interesting summer. Missouri/Arkansas seem primed for a decent wave here.

Schools in the fall seem like they are going to have some challenges with the general marching orders of a normal school year combined with with delta unless we can get kids fully vaxxed before returning. That seems slightly ambitious, although it could happen reasonably early in the school year. Would be prudent to plan to start the year with masks and other protocols in place, but feels like an uphill battle.

Winter still may present some challenges, but hard to see anything like last year in high vax states unless you believe some of the twitter doomfesters about Delta and vaccines. Bulk of the data seems cautiously optimistic on that front although J&J protection seems a bit of a question mark still. Given that we don’t know how long vaccine immunity lasts and that, if it does wear off, it is likely to wear off somewhat faster among the elderly, it seems we may need some caution this winter.

US total cases will plateau soon, but not sure that is going to be the best metric for all the reasons you mention. Going to be vast regional differences.

Fingers crossed no worse variants to come.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1407065903934722054

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150 million Americans are now fully vaccinated

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Mr. Bill was peak SNL.

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excess mortality in the US is almost back to 2015-2019 levels.

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So what you’re saying, is that Covid actually started in the US in 2015?

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Maybe COVID was the friends we made along the way after all?

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Not sure what thread this best belongs in, but it may be the best political cartoon I’ve ever seen.

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Emphasis mine and something that we should be blasting from the rooftops.

Of the six people infected, five were hospitalized. One employee who was in the hospital died and another employee who was not hospitalized also died, Hopes told CNN’s Erin Burnett.

The only exposed employee in the IT office who was vaccinated did not get infected, Hopes said

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Also from that article

The government building was closed on Friday as a precaution. It reopened Monday but officials didn’t implement a mask requirement, instead keeping them optional

The Age of Enlightenment

in four weeks when the US graph looks like this and deplorables start dying, it’s gonna be biden and fauci’s fault somehow

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Well, we tried!

https://twitter.com/cnnsotu/status/1407326567378960394?s=21